Well it was a day so full of hammers in the Jacksonian portfolio that we could have built a break front works that would have repelled the stoutest of cavalries. You can see my comments in the notes about them, but generally a lot of hammers means that you are seeing final bottomings in stocks as they open high, chase a bunch of sells lower and then close high again, working out final selling positions.
I say this happens “generally,” but we shall see what happens tomorrow. The good news is we’ve gotten to pretty oversold conditions in almost all of the Jacksons, so those of you who have been picking up bargainst these last few days, bravo. I think we shall see some action as we head towards the end of the week. As it’s options expiry, I hope it’s not that X-rated kind of action no sensible gentleperson wants to see.
I was doing some work on fibs, but I have to run to a lacrosse game, so my findings will have to wait until an addenda is readied with my findings. Let’s just say these ten year fibonaccis are, in the words of Commander Spock “Quite fascinating, Jim.”
Many apologies to those not named Jim.
Here are the “notes,” I will talk to youse latah.
| Name | 16-Jun | % Change | 17-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 29.04 | $ 28.88 | -0.55% | Still in triangle consolidation. | ||
| EGO | 8.51 | 8.65 | 1.65% | Bullish engulfing, two days black now. | ||
| GDX | 38.37 | 38.23 | -0.36% | Nice hammer on the day, despite slight down. | ||
| GLD | 91.93 | 92.35 | 0.46% | POG $940, beautiful hammer. | ||
| IAG | 9.54 | 9.65 | 1.15% | Hammer off the 23.6% fib, too. | ||
| MON | 81.62 | 81.08 | -0.66% | Opened down, nice recovery. | ||
| NRP | 22.44 | 22.13 | -1.38% | Red hammer just above the 38.2% (22.05) | ||
| PAAS | 20.74 | 20.39 | -1.69% | Held support at $20, oversold like a mothah! | ||
| RGLD | 42.90 | 43.73 | 1.93% | Bouncing on 43.50, another EOD selloff? | ||
| SLV | 13.99 | 14.12 | 0.93% | POSilver @14.34, $13.80 support held | ||
| SLW | 8.92 | 8.80 | -1.35% | Hammer on $8.50 support, nice trade PPT! | ||
| SSRI | 19.62 | 19.22 | -2.04% | I bot it one last time as promised! $19.02. | ||
| TBT | 53.59 | 54.17 | 1.08% | Bot back 1/2 my calls today as promised. | ||
| TC | 10.68 | 10.50 | -1.69% | Caught support @ 9.60 and then took off. Hammer. | ||
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Is TCK the replacement, let’s hear your vote! | ||
| AVG (daily) | -0.17% | |||||
| AVG (monthly) | -7.44% | |||||
| AVG (inception) | 16.22% | |||||
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PS — note the final comment on TSO, which goes away soon. I am seriously thinking of adding [[TCK]] which I added today at $15.04, to the Jacksons. It’s only serious competition is [[BHP]]. What say youse?
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My small spec position in AZK acted well today..
Jake,
I took a preliminary look at TCK when you first mentioned it. I liked the diversified nature of their metals “portfolio” but my initial impression was that their debt level would become an issue and that bumped it down on my “to research in depth” list. Since I’ve looked at most of the other JCHPs, in depth, I’ll have to bump it back up near the top of my list.
As an aside, the other two JCHPs I crossed off my list early on from a preliminary scan were TSO and ANDE. Wish I hadn’t dismissed ANDE so soon…
I noticed your 10 year fib posts and decided to add more SSRI at 19.20. And just because my holdings are a bit light on gold and didn’t want it to get jealous, thinking I’m playing favorites, I started a position in GFI this morning when it was in the red.
I suspect that I’ll be sending you a “thank you” card for that one.
i owned TCK for a minute back when it was in the 7s. caught a gap up and sold it, because i was skeptical of the ‘rally’.
that tcks me off.
nevertheless, i believe they’re paying off debt and would vote them into the jackson group, llp.
TCK just announced another asset sale after hours tonight. Should pay off about half their current liabilities.
Frustrated by this week’s retracement, but I’ve not sold a share. One of the few things I hold that I’d actually dignify with the word “investment”. They took a huge gamble in buying out Fording coal just before the world ended last summer, but appear to have their debt situation well in hand, and they’re executing their strategy without dilution.
Lacrosse is for fags.
And its just a gay sport.
I was at FLY’s helping him paint last weekend and he said the same thing.
Sorry.
Per P&F, TCK bullish signal just reversed today:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=tck,PLTADANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
TCK asset sale does look good. it will play well in the market, get a bump tomorrow I think. Its one I regretted selling.
but really you are way too concentrated on Material Shite, no ? get some semis, insurance (why do they always have low beta?), water plays, erm … business services, vegetables, witchcraft. no manufacturing ? or did I miss the intro where you declared the Jacksonian as only “companies that deal with the real shit” ?
right now I’m furiously analyzing and getting the shopping list ready as prices fall. I want categories (diversification) and top picks in each. I’m sure many are doing the same.
Blessed be The Pullback (even more blessed if I could’ve gotten rid of this stupid GSI steel earlier)
Since you have BHP on your short list how bout considering VALE which is just as liquid and a very good value?
Bull trap on 6/15 but downside looks limited to maybe 17-18.
Kim Jizzler- how ironic.
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Equalizer- I completely forgot that TCK bought Fording which I’d owned for years. That might put them over the top for me.
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Artha- the JCHP is a very specifically chosen “hard money/ asset” portfolio meant to weather the coming devaluation.
Think General Jackson and his hatred for fractional and Central banking.
No friggin insurance companies!
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Could AEM be on the prowl for some juniors?
Merger is the only way these majors can grow IMO.
http://www.mining-technology.com/news/news57553.html
E8- what do you make of that “Neo-Elliot” prediction that was being hawked on Fly’s blog earlier today?
I thought your guy was the “neo” man?
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TC- that’s why I try to avoid the behemoths. I never want to be on the but side of a deal in the hold bidness, SLW’s recent buy aside.
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Jake – My guy is the “objective” guy. But as I recall he too is looking for a retest of the old lows upon completion of this rally which may have already occurred.
Sounds like you’d prefer to avoid BHP for fear of some RTP fuckery as well as VALE as they have been quite the acquirer themselves with substantial debt to show for it.
In case you missed my OEW recap, look here:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2009/06/17/my-patience-is-wearing-thin/#comment-117822
The daily updates to your holdings are appreciated.
Do you ever get into any of the exploratory penny stocks?
Or do you categorize them all as “liars next to holes” and thus stay away?
Jake,
Not sure if you already did this when you were trying different variations of the daily updates, but I think a good addition would be a column showing the percentage gain/loss since being added to the JCHP. Or this info could make a good end-of-week type post.
Eric- I’ll do crazy juniors, and have recommended quite a few. EXK and NXG come to mind, not to mention CDE before its reverse split.
I like to keep them over a buck though.
For propriety’s sake.
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Sleepy- aside from the newest (still officially unchosen) pick, all the picks are taken from May 1st.
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Jake – Have you seen this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a62_boqkurbI
SLW fakeout this morning… available at 8 fitty one more time.
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E8 — I had seen that story, but not in as much detail as that.
It’s literally incredible. I would like a TON more information, with questions answered such as:
1) Were these “bearer bonds” (ie, were they liquifable upon receipt?)
2) If not, were they registered to some account?
3) Were they counterfeit — which seems ridiculous considering you could only counterfeit bonds that were issued in real life, and therefore the fraud could easily be discovered… this is not like making fake Benjamins, after all.
4) Who were the Japanese men working for?
5) Is this a North Korean or a Japanese — or even a Chinese — plot?
6) What was the men’s destination? Why were they going from Italy to Switzerland?
7) Why is there not more reporting on this HUGE story??
We are living in an electronic age — all US bonds are registered when sold TO THEIR OWNERS by Cusip. WHO OWNS THESE BONDS??
I am seriously thinking of making a post about this, so please — E8, or any of you — add any queries or discussions you’d like to hash out here on this subject.
This is some SARIOUS fuckery!
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US says bonds seized in Italy are ‘clearly fakes’.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adc1HD7mWY4A
On ‘Market Ticker’ Denninger mistakes an ‘m’ with a ‘b’.
(From Market Ticker)
“Meyerhardt said Treasury records show an estimated $105.4 billion in bearer bonds have yet to be surrendered.”
(from the Bloomberg story)
“Meyerhardt said Treasury records show an estimated $105.4 million in bearer bonds have yet to be surrendered.”
But it may have been the bloomberg writer (Vincent Del GUIDiche – whaddya expect?) who initially made the mistake:
UNder the headline on bloomberg:
(Corrects amount outstanding in fourth paragraph.)
either way, very fishy
Sounds like a bullshit cover to me. Clearly, it would be retarded to counterfeit T-bonds, and especially of that magnitude.
So why would someone go to the trouble?
Occum’s razor anyone?
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I just doubled down on PAAS.
A-greed
don’t know .. judging by the action in the pm stocks, gold & silver could be setting up for some real wackage
On the bright side, TCK is doing well.
SLW does have a gap at 8.29, so who knows?
As I said, these are longer term opps, due a pullback, and we’re getting it.
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Brucie, as for the overall market… take a look at my favorite armless and legless stock index in a pile of leaves —
“Russell”
Run the fibs from the 9/19/08 highs (which are also the 8/15/08 and 6/5/08 highs) to the 3/09/09 lows.
Now, check out that “spang!” yesterday off the 38.2% fib retrace.
Significant?
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Dumped my swing trade of GDX and NG within the first 20 minutes or so for close to even.
Gold could go to 1000 this PM and most of them will be flat to down.
“Gold could go to 1000 this PM and most of them will be flat to down.”
Wha?
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Bonds allegedly fakes:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090618-707082.html
Made for some interesting chatter and implications for the $ and gold if they were the real McCoy:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/06/for-your-entertainment-bloomberg-news-columnist-william-pesek-lets-his-imagination-run-wild-about-the-strange-case-of-two-ja.html
BTW, I added some NG, NGD & USU on this dip ..
Another suggestion for the Jacksons though also a foreigner is SLT.
Jake,
For your info I just posted a PeeG post updating on my PCX strangle play. PCX is making a big move down the last few days which is good for a strangle owner like me.
SLW: has me a bit worried here, I realize I suck at timing these PM stocks but the volume on this slide looks a bit ominous no? At what point/price would you consider bailing?
Jake,
Any thoughts on EGO? It was down more than 7% at one point today. Fell below trend line with high volume at $8.15
Sell and wait for a lower entry?
Thanks
Caveman — I will not bail on SLW, unless the Price of Silver takes on some ominous tones. In the meantime, I am looking at this (last?) gap at 8.27.
Anon — I don’t know what’s going on w. EGO, although I suspect fuckery.
AEM announced an expansion of their credit lines, so I’m assuming they are looking at buying a junior… it could be anyone and it could be the traders are clearing the decks while they can, OR someone knows it’s NOT EGO.
Meantime, $8 is some pretty strong long term support, and the trendline from the March 18th low is @$7.72.
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The other problem is the dollar, which is up, and UUP back over $24, which I hate.
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im feeling your pain Jake…our silver plays getting killed…storm will pass..weak hands getting flushed out and will move again as our “fine” officials get back to business
Eggsactly RHill — last month was a little too much too fast, and they’re just taking it back quite a bit of it now.
I said, “WTF” and bot another 2k of SLW at 8.26. Now I am full to bursting in that name. On a rebound I may sell some to get even more SSRI and PAAS, also “debo’d” today.
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that 134b is old hat, came out last week. Either they are real, fake, or half n half, and no matter what it is a HUGE story.
very disconcerting.
Jake, please make a post about it.
Jake: AEM announced an expansion of their credit lines, so I’m assuming they are looking at buying a junior… it could be anyone and it could be the traders are clearing the decks while they can, OR someone knows it’s NOT EGO.
Think I know who they are … there’s two and possibly a third. Very big find … more later once I’ve staked my claim.
You better offer a nugget.
I’ll try to do a PG post as soon as I’m filled …
Of those I track it was the only one up today, the other is some obscure pink sheet but they are the one tied to AEM while the first has the drill results on their JV property with 51% ownership and rights to more. Very interesting reading and a lottery ticket (6 cents) as well with acreage right in the middle.
A big thanks to TC for putting the bug in my ear … I owe ya if this works out as it should.
E8 my guess is Osisko…stock ran up big today and would make sense for AEM…Goldcorp interested in Osisko probably as well..lots of rumors flying around
Re: the $134 billy… should have known it was Fly’s neighbors up on Todt Hill.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/82091ec2-5c2f-11de-aea3-00144feabdc0.html
FWIW — HMY was up today too. Not exactly a junior, but…
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RHILL – Sorry
Jake – That dog don’t hunt
Found another confirmation: One of the companies just passed a shareholder rights plan effective 6/16!
All the dots are lining up …