Category Archives: New Picks
Overall thumbs up to the RNC. Some lame moments, but this is the Republicans, after all. They are the opposite of slick. Unlike many, I enjoyed Clint’s off the cuff rambling. He’s like your crotchety grandfather — the one you got your sense of humor from, the one who could always make you smile. Rubio had the second best speech of the convention, after only Ryan, and his tying his own immigrant roots-story into the Euro-style socialist policies of the Obama Administration was as spot-on as it was rhetorically brilliant. To whit:
“These (Obama policies) are the ideas that people come to America to get away from.”
Mitt was better than I expected, if only third place (Christie was terrible, IMHO, btw). He humanized himself, I thought, and connected with the women’s vote, which will be crucial. His economic versatility can be taken for granted, and it will be what helps save this Republic, but he’s not going to get that chance without “the womenses.” Unlike Obama, he’s not just another pretty face.
I’m reasonably upbeat about the prospects of the GOP ticket going into November, but much work remains to be done. Despite Obama’s Jimmy Carteresque record, he’s got major dollar-equivalent support from the likes of the major networks and wire services. The good news is the American populace is discounting these propaganda organs substantially in the 21st Century. The Obama-Reid-Pelosi abysmal record is there for those who want to review it, and it’s our job as intelligent arbiters of our own republic to make sure the truth is not buried under slander, spin and misdirection. God bless us all.
I think yesterday’s downspike may have presented an opportunity, market-wise. I may start to step back into some of my sold off SLW and SIL positions. I also like SLV for the duration here. Those of you who have not done so may even think about physical silver. I think we’re done pulling back and getting ready for the (longer term) move back to the 2011 highs. We’re back above the 200 day EMA (and pulled back to it yesterday at $29.40). We may pay pull back to fill in some gaps in the recent rise, but I don’t see SLV getting back below $28.50 any time soon.
For those fleet of foot and young enough to throw some bones on a play, I think BAA presented a nice opportunity yesterday on that big pullback. If you look at this five minute chart, you’ll see a bunch of buying in the last hour of trading, all at that magic $4-dollarish mark.
I think this thing is headed back to $5.00 at some point before year end, and that’s 20% from here. Keep in mind this is a risky one, and against my usual gold miner picking strategy as it’s got tonnes of political risk, being in the “Democratic”(hah!) Republic of Congo. Keep your finger on the “caution” button for this sucker.
Another beaten down stock I was asked about (by Ragin’ Cajun, it turns out, sorry I took so long RC!) is rare earth miner MCP — Molycorp. I don’t own any of this but looking at the chart, it seems like this would be as safe buy with your stops set below the close on the 28th ($10.75). I think yesterday’s action was typical back and fill volatility, and MCP is ready to join the re-inflation party Chairman Bernanke is about to touch off in pursuit of “four more years” for he and Barry.
Best to you all.
The other night I saw the Fly
And Jeremy and Chuck Am I.
Chess and Wine and Gappy Too
(Might sound like three, but only two)
Woodshedder bedecked in denim
Scotty with lovely wife, God bless’im
Cain Thaler came on wheelchair made
of Bamboo- wire and cut jade
Ancient even past his years
He breathed blue smoke and shed dry tears
For Detroit his home benighted so
By corrupt gov’t and cold grey snow
Fly made toasts to kith and kin
Whilst Jemmy’s stomach near augured in.
Gapp and Chuck, wolfish rakes
Assessed the women (even Jake’s)
Yet stayed their hands and played the part
Of gentlemen, with Gentle Heart
RC of course, the Silent Giant
Hove to the table, his palette pliant
Without his better half’s restraint
Drew ample beverage, drew ample plate.
One party missing, and well missed
The liberal heart, whom Nature kissed
No Cronkite and no Greenman showed
To plead ‘gainst MONstah, and for “O.”
Progenic duty stayed the bars
(And further frolics with cigars)
Sent “the Jakes” home by one AM
Whilst Friends of Fly (and Chess and Jem)
Went forth with blessings from us both
For IBC, for friends and “Growth.”
Someone claimed I haven’t posted in two months! Calumny!
It’s been a mere one month. It’s only seemed like two in our accelerated world. Things have slowed, or blowed, or both, and I won’t bore you with details, but I should be able to post somewhat more often, at least in August.
Did I mention I had to cut my vacation short and come home three days early? Yeah, I know, boo hoo, at least I have a job, right? What right have I to complain when this is the lot I’ve chosen? Right. None.
Meanwhile, while I’ve been resting my keyboard, the silver markets have begun to show signs of life again. If you are not in EXK and AG, you’ve still got time, but probably not a tonne of it. Likewise SLW which had a nice move today. Dollars to donuts the lesser bodies like MVG and SSRI will also begin to rise alongside the champions. Like usual, the real moves will be made in the Fall for those stocks, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt you to start accumulating now. As usual, SIL is a great “combinator” if you don’t want to agonize over the usual suspects.
Gold stocks have become almost too annoying to mess with on the individual side, so outside of RGLD, and maybe AUY, I am not going to recommend you dabble in anything but the ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ.
Before you ask, yes, I still own the rare earths (QRM and AVL, especially), despite their declines. I just add more on whims. What the hell, they are popcorn cheap and I am quite certain they will Bela Lugosi when the dollar heads down one more time this coming Election Season.
What’s got me in “near term buy” mode however, are a couple of stocks I’ve owned for a while that are showing nice promise right now. One is nat gas former superstar ECA, which looks beautiful, especially on a pullback to the $21.00 range. Another is PSX, which I “inherited” when it spun off of COP, back in April (COP being one of the Samurai Seven along with fat dividend gold stock AEM, which has also risen from the grave as of late). And along with PSX, I will take some HFC, another refiner. I like them both at $38 if you are looking for a buy range.
I will endeavor to be more faithful to you my friends. The spirit is always willing, as you know… the flesh? Well…
Gold’s not been so hot, here, but I’m patient, and I’ll wait for it to break out of this oversold condition much like I’ve done many times in the past. There’s been little conditional change in the broader underpinnings of this PM market. We still have massive liquidity demand – if only for bandaging purposes on European and American debt problems. We still have too much of our economy being crowded out by government creep (and creeps). And earl and ag inflation, despite the recent sell-offs, are a constant threat.
I am therefore comfortable holding my horde whilst exploring other alternatives that have been solid for me for years. Among those, you know of UPS and MON, which I’ve spoken of many times. I still like those for the very long term. There are a couple of other names, however, that I have talked about much recently.
These are stocks that I would categorize as ”hold forever,” as long as they continue to carry and groom their historically strong management teams. You just put these names away and expect the best. Then one day, they reward you, like Markel (MKL) did this week.
I would encourage you to study up on Markel, some would say they are “the next Berkshire Hathaway.” All I know is that these are very sharp guys on the insurance side… very workman-like and below the radar. The kind of stock I like to hold forever.
On the consumer products front, LANC (Lancaster Colony) — a name I’ve mentioned here beofre– is another gem that does nothing but grow wisely on your supermarket shelves. It looks real nice right here:
Read up on LANC as well. It’s good niche food business, with a sweet little dividend to keep things happy while you wait. Slow and steady wins the race on these smart folks.
Last, for those of you who are jonesing for a gold pick, there is benighted AAU, which #6 asked me about on my last blog post. It’s looking oversold like the rest of the gold market, and it sure looks like it’s in opportune spot here resting on its 200 week EMA:
Patience will be rewarded, as it has been for a decade now.
Best to you all…
While I wait on the precious metal markets to resolve themselves, I’m subsisting on a diet of heavy metals and pure refined sugar. If I taper off in my blogging in the coming days it’s likely because I’ve transformed into a Brundel Fly.
As mentioned, AVL , REE, MCP have been moving nicely (although tapering off a bit at the end of the day), while the PM miners tread water trying to catch a bid from the falling Uncle Buck. I did note that BAA finished back above $5.00 again.
Nope, the only thing that really stood out today in the areas I’m looking at was a refiner… and no, not the petroleum and kerosene variety, but the lonely sweet variety, sugar shack shifter Imperial Sugar — IPSU.
There have been all kinds of articles about sugar being the commodity of 2012, and I take them all with a grain of salt (no pun intended). I do, however, like a decent looking chart when I see one, and this one promises at least some continuation on today’s high volume, high percentage move. Just like the last time we got a high volume candle, I think we’ll get at least two more days out of this, which could very well bring us to our next resistance, at the underside of the 200-day EMA, or appoximately $7.60.
For those checking the math, that’ approximately 34% over today’s close. Do you feel lucky?
I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again. Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand.
But this morning, after a 36-hour narco-nap, I decided to “up-periscope,” fully expecting to witness scenes of post-apocalyptic societal dissolution. Instead, I found these guys scurrying about, handing out large wads of $100 dollar bills for 500 yuan a piece.
Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions? It’s certainly possible.
But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.
If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now – sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL.
I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.
God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.
I’ve never been abashed by my love for the Trannies, nor my love for Charles Dow, who employed them to great effect in his famous theory. Some of us were dismayed to the see the Trannies pulling back while the rest of the market soared. My contention is the Trannies were just leading, and took their pause first.
Note this weekly Tranny chart which shows the sector sticking the landing on the 13-week EMA, and showing stochastic signs of a rebound:
Now check out the action on my favourite Tranny of them all… Ms. UPS!
And here’s the daily, which also says, “come to supper.”
I think we are about to take off again, overall market wise… but maybe not before our Transport lovelies have blazed the path. My best to you all.