Last I saw him he was running around, all ass & tail, gunning down shots of Don Julio and screaming “New Lows in July, damnit!!”  

But here it is August, and the only lows I’m seeing are the catatonic stair steps of [[UUP]] as it heads to its crypt in the basement.  Remember my post about the “noise zone” from the other day?  Here’s our result:

Looks like $23 is the make or break area, here.   If we get there, I think we get at least a bounce.   Would not shock me to see further deterioration after that.

Again, that means good things for our PM and Jacksonian buddies, and they all rallied today, with the overall portfolio up 3.23% today and now breaking to new highs since our May 1st inception, with a return to date of 26.62%.   My only regret is that I didn’t put more cash to work last week when I upped my Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] holdings back to their former strengths.  

Another interesting note — while Mr. Anderson — The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] remains my top performer with a 92.81% return since May 1st launch, my second chasing close on his heels is also my newest pick Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] which is up an astonishing 88.76% since first purchase back on June 16th at $15.04.    Most of the PM’s are in the 20’s percentile range (still off their June highs, mind you) with IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] leading that pack, up 32.06%.

The one Jacksonian clunker (for which I receive a large “cash” dividend) is Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] , at a negative (4.11%).   I will consider NRP’s inclusion in the ongoing list, unless it’s laggard status improves.

As for the best of the Jackson’s currently, the silvers seem to be standing out nicely, with my favourite (sic) Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] breaking out past it’s 61.8% fib, and looking to continue here to resistance in the near term at $11.00 or so.   I of course will hold onto it until the bonds of time are loosed.   Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] also looks extremely strong here, with another breakaway gap, up over 6% today like SLW.  [[PAAS]] was only up over 5% today, but is exhibiting the same tendencies.  

Last, non-Jackson junior silver [[EXK]] was also very strong today, with a nice volume spike and also gapping up over resistance. levels.   It seems to be heading to it’s recent highs ($2.40) , and I’d say that’s going to come quickly.   My analysis is that the Central banks were so busy suppressing gold today that they forgot about her little brother, and the beach ball popped above the water for all to see….

Onto the non-Jackson golds–  I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , which is becoming almost Jacksonian in its stately and dignified rise here.   Take a look at it’s weekly chart when you get a chance — it’s a thing of beauty.   As mentioned in my comments section, [[BAA]] broke da Flummox out today over the $2.14 barrier I had mentioned in my chart the other day, and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] is looking to move higher.  I also still like Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]],  even though it’s rise was crippled by the Curse of DMG early this morning.  

On the non PM front, I still very much like Mirant Corporation [[MIR]] — which also has A and B warrants, if you are interested in that type of thing.   I also applaud any of you that took my [[CNXT]] breakout signal chart from the other day to heart.  I think they’ll be more there, btw.  

 That should be enough for you to digest for now, but check in my comments section tomorrow for trading updates.   Best to you all.

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Allright, that’s enough of this Barack Obamacare bashing. For now.

Let’s all remember what this blog is about after all, which is sound money market plays. That stuff can’t work out without a crapload of bad government policy to destroy the currency for our benefit. So let’s all take a minute to thank Barack and Nancy and the whole group down at the Fed for the opportunities they’ve apportioned us.

And here’s some more that I think may be burbling to the surface this very evening… First it looks like the coal stocks are catching a whiff, so let’s not forget about the Jacksonian dividend payor — Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] .

Next I’ve got some fun junior golds that I think are ready to take off, not unlike last night’s recommendation [[CNXT]] did today. The first I’ve talked about for many months, and it’s one of my favourites (sic) of the junior miner variety — and here’s Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] ‘s weekly chart:

Looking for a flat side breakout (up) here, with a little additional volume. $9.00 should be the safe zone.

Next is [[BAA]] , which finally got it’s mojo going today. I think a move over $2.14 is the second stage of this story:

Last, an old friend who may be indicating good news (finally) for the Brotherhood of the Natural Gas freaks (like Fly’s Flotek), is Lexington, KY-based NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] , which is showing a turtle head pop-out of the downtrend:

Last, the silvers look like they are going to make another run, so keep an eye on the silver Jacksons Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and [[PAAS]] . Also platinum finally started getting off it’s keyster today as well — I use the ETF [[PTM]] to invest in that precious metal.

Remember to write your Congressperson about keeping their hands off your private, well supplied healthcare system. Don’t let them kill the goose that’s laying the golden eggs for us and the rest of global health. Best to you all.

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Make no mistake, we’re still in the midst of a full out Horatio Nelson-type naval battle, here, with the combined cannonades of inflation and deflation, public & private sector debt, multi-headed “government assistance,” increasing taxation, shrinking consumption and worsening unemployment all being fired in unison at Her Majesty’s Portfolio Cruiser, the H.M.S Winship.

Luckily her sides are reinforced with a near-impenatrable alloy of silver, gold, molybdenum and all the various metallic crap that Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] pulls out of the earth.   For weapons systems, she’s got the finest grain elevator launchers of the fleet, courtesy of  The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , which are in turn able to switch over to ethanol firing nozzles ready to inebriate the various Treasury pirates swinging off their black ships in boarding party fashion.  It doesn’t take much.

Speaking of those Treasury pirates, Lt. Commander Montgomery Scott himself would trade all his dilithium crystals for a shot at the defense shields provided by [[TBT]] , the “un-Treasuries” which will keep our ship sound and well-tarred in the coming T-Bond puke, courtesy of our trading partners, formerly known as “Barnum’s Finest.”  Looks like I should’ve grabbed a couple more of those on Friday as they bounced right off the pullback, but I was remiss.  Maybe Monday.

In the meantime, I’m feeling increasingly good about the prospects of the overall market (at least short term), and of my gold & silver plays.  Let’s take the latter first:

That monster stick on the weekly off the channel bottom, and through the 50% fib line is giving me the warm and fuzzies.  The outrageously cautious may wish to wait until we break that downtrend line, and guess what?  You’ll still be better off than those who bought at the end of May, early June.  

 Here’s the other reason I really like the sound money plays here:

 

I don’t know about you, but I think the cards are pointing to a less expensive dollar again.  Odd, no?

For my part, I will be collecting more juniors here, including Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , [[BAA]] , [[EXK]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , and my new favourite (sic) Sir Walter’s Scott’s knight in shining armor — Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] .    Of course all the Jackson’s are great as well, but especially the silvers — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , and [[PAAS]] .

Last, I think it’s imperative to realize why the dollar is getting skunked here.  Part of it is the deficits and debt we’ve already pledged to fund with the help of our suckers, er, trading partners.

 Part of it is a result of the promise of even more ridiculous legislation being rammed through Congress right now by feckless Congresscritters who are not even reading these bills.   Take a look at some of the yeoman’s  work done by retired Marine Peter Fleckenstein on the first 400 pages of the House health care monstrosity.   Really, if you were just thinking that they could get this through without it having any effect on you and your family — well, you’ll see that you’ve had your head in the sand.  

This is nothing less than the largest freedom grab in our country’s history — bar nothing, zero zip.   Try and read Peter’s parsing without getting a chill down your spine.

Last, I’ve included the Jackson Review.   I really should have allocated more cash last week.  I will do so for sure this week, so as not to continue lagging the performance of the straight stocks.

________________________

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	16-Jul	Change	17-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$    29.30		$     28.47	-2.83%		$              8,596	-0.15%		50 day still not out of question ($26.40)
EGO	9.20		9.21	0.11%		$              8,630	0.01%		Could be due for a little more pullback
GDX	38.33		38.64	0.81%		$            11,695	0.06%		Consolidating
GLD	91.98		91.93	-0.05%		$            10,573	0.00%		Over 20 & 50 days, but consolidating
IAG	10.05		10.22	1.69%		$            12,602	0.13%		10.60’s next resistance
MON	75.74		75.41	-0.44%		$              4,423	-0.01%		Pulled back, as expected.
NRP	22.89		23.12	1.00%		$              4,799	0.03%		Overbot, but still strong
PAAS	19.12		19.24	0.63%		$            11,556	0.04%		200 day @ 19.27
RGLD	40.59		40.67	0.20%		$            11,238	0.01%		Still under 20 & 50 day.
SLV	13.09		13.17	0.61%		$            10,699	0.04%		Back over 200 day, but overbot/.
SLW	8.39		8.48	1.07%		$              8,237	0.05%		$8.50 major resistance.
SSRI	18.76		19.15	2.08%		$            11,140	0.14%		Needs back over $19.
TBT	52.00		53.56	3.00%		$            10,669	0.19%		Will likely buy tomorrow on this pullback
TC	11.81		12.36	4.66%		$              5,798	0.16%		Getting ready to crank one out
TCK	20.03		21.06	5.14%		$            14,003	0.43%		JUST BTFO.  Likely consolidate now.
TZA	20.35		20.64	1.44%		$              4,159	0.04%		Prolly get some strength tomorrow
Cash (000)	$  26.42		$   26.42	0.01%		26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)				1.13%		$       175,236	1.17%
AVG (monthly)				4.03%		Actual
AVG (inception)				17.50%		Return	16.82%

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Well, in the least, it’s a bounce. And it’s off two significant indicators, which gives me comfort. The more indicators, the better I feel about taking the trade.

As you know I’m already ass deep in gold and gold miners, and the [[$HUI]] is a great indicator for the unhedged (ie, usually smaller) gold and silver miners. That said, I may try to take advantage of what I think will at least be a measured bounce here to pick up some $GDX calls. Again, the chart tells the tale:

I’m looking at the September $28’s now, as well as adding some more juniors. Best to you all.

_________

UPDATE:

I bot 20 Sept GDX 28 calls @ $8.00. Possible to add 20 more… developing. Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] on fiah. Watch biotech grenades… [[OXGN]] stealing all the air from the room. Keep an eye on [[BIOS]] .

Second Update:

Bot 1500 of IRE @ $8.10. Probably late, but… I like the look of it.

Last, an enduring hat tip to my young friend CA for [[CAR]] .
__________

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So they gave Bernie 150 years in the slam. Sounds like a big deal, but I bet he doesn’t do 12… this side of the daisies, at least. Hey fugheddaboudit, he might even escape the above elaborate costume by becoming the “prison accountant” and doing Bubbah’s taxes every year. Can you see it?

Bubbalah, I have news! Yoah tax refund estimates out at 16 cahtons of Marlboro Reds and a case of Mint Jelly Spam. No, dahling, it is no trouble.  You just pay me my “dahposit” of five cartons, and we can get the ball rolling on this new “thing” right away!

He should be fine.

But enough about old Bernie.  Let’s face it, he’s getting what he deserves, and that’s what we’re all about on the Jacksonian Plan too.   Right now, it looks like the market is taking its time taking a decision.   Will she run up to the top of the hill at 960 again, or jump off the cliff righ here at 926-ish, and end it all, emo lemming style?   I admit I don’t know, as today was a veritable “stick in the mud” despite the drop in the dollar and the increase in oil prices.

Earnings are still coming out favourably (sic) in some industries, including health care and selected technologies.  Aging pension filler behemoths like Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson [[JNJ]] , Amgen, Inc. [[AMGN]]  , Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. [[MRK]] and even good old staple stock Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]] are starting to look like they’ves got some gusto here, and the Jackson’s seem like they want to go into hibernation.  

That doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made, however, and on top of the Jacksons I’ll be watching these nutty juniors like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , and some key techs that The PPT has been alerting me to.   Two I purchased today were Fly’s current hot pick [[ARMH]] and perennial PPT favourite (sic) [[BIOS]] at $6.02 and $5.83 respectively.  I am also waiting on an entry for TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , perhaps tomorrow.  

In the meantime, the only Jackson that I think looks appetizing here is [[TBT]] , as I think it’s getting very cheap again.   I continue to monitor the silvers closely, however, as they’ve been volatile lately.  That said, the spot price of silver is back above $14 tonight, and gold is back over $940 again.   Good signs.

 I promise to make myself more available tomorrow, and keep you updated on the purchases and sales, if any.   Good night for now.

Name/			%
Ticker	26-Jun	29-Jun	Change		Comments
ANDE	$      30.23	$      29.91	-1.06%		Low volume pullback.  Keeping an eye.
EGO	9.40	9.45	0.53%		Plateauing.
GDX	39.20	39.15	-0.13%		Hanging on the 20-day
GLD	92.29	92.04	-0.27%		POG over $940 now.
IAG	10.48	10.30	-1.72%		Low volume pullback.
MON	75.25	76.20	1.26%		Still a lot of work to do.
NRP	20.82	21.02	0.96%		Watch for break of bear flag here.
PAAS	19.08	18.55	-2.78%		Turned away at the 200 & 50 day
RGLD	42.07	42.97	2.14%		Low volume retrace, not trusting.
SLV	13.90	13.66	-1.73%		POS back above $14 this evening.
SLW	8.72	8.52	-2.29%		Between the 50 and 200 day EMA.
SSRI	19.52	19.16	-1.84%		Same as SLW
TBT	50.84	50.65	-0.38%		Very slight pullback… looking to add again
TC	10.44	10.57	1.25%		4th upday, on light volume
TCK	16.56	16.06	-3.02%		Low vol, still above 20, 50, and 200.
TZA	22.50	22.52	0.09%		Flat on low volume. Do or die, here.
AVG (daily)			-0.56%
AVG (monthly)			-6.96%
AVG (inception)			14.80%

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We all get busy, so I know this problem plagues a lot of us longer term swing traders and investors.    You take on a small position, justify your trade, and then when it starts doing well, maybe you take a look at selling some of it, but then, having done so…  forget about the rest?

Well, that’s what happened to me with [[EXK]] .  Remember how well that one was doing?  And I even came out and pointed out that it was battling with it’s trendline… here’s the original chart, for reference:

Well it approached it and crashed.  I sold about a third at the time, which is my usual response.  Unfortunately, if I was paying closer attention to this weekly chart, I would’ve sold more on the more obvious retrace direction.  Hindsight is 20-20, but I should have anticipated this result:

Major takeaway —  I need to limit my positions, so I can pay better attention to even small positions like this one.   Think about it, not only did I miss a good opportunity to sell more or all at a significant resistance, but I psychologically barred myself from buying more at the lower support.   Via these mistakes, we breed poor performance.   I will try to do better for myself, and for you, faithful reader.

I still like EXK, by the way, as I do a lot of my smaller miners for the long term.  I just recognize that there will be myriad opportunities to make money in short swing trades in names like one, even as this bull advances.

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