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There’s something symmetric about this year’s number “2012” isn’t there?  February 2nd, 12th, 20th and 22nd and December 2nd, 12th, 20th, and 22nd are going to be kind of cool for numbers geeks looking for auspicious dates upon which to get married or receive ass tattoos, perhaps.   Maybe the Mayans will come through with a nice atmosphere sucking asteroid strike on one of those days as well?   That would be special, no?

Anyway, without much further ado, I will set forth some of my predictions for the next 365 days, should we get all of them…

• The Giants will luck their way into the playoffs thanks to the incompetence of the 2011 NFC East, and because God wants to punish the Ryan Brothers.  They will lose in the first round to the far more deserving Atlanta Flackons (sic).
• Jerry Jones will publicly admonish, but keep his Ginger Head Coach, Jason Garrett.
• Rick Santorum will come in second to Mitt Romney in the Iowa Caucuses, and then gain enough momentum to place a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire.
• Santorum wins in a tight race in South Carolina, prompting Romney to offer him the Veep slot two months prior to the convention in order to lock down the wary evangelical vote.
• Tim Pawlenty’s head explodes simultaneous with Pat Robertson’s.  Pawlenty for “woulda shoulda coulda”  because he dropped out too early,  and Robertson upon realizing the GOP is running a Mormon-Catholic ticket.
• The New Orleans Saints win the Superbowl over the New England Patriots in Indianapolis.
• Indianapolis (Colts) take Andrew Luck with the first round pick and keep Peyton Manning… for now.
• The U.S. dollar peaks at $81.50 on the DX-Y Index, and proceeds to break down below the April ’08 lows (sub- $72.00) by September.
• Gold breaks $2,000.00 by April, followed by Silver breaking its old highs in May.
• With the drop in the dollar, and the prospect of the end of the Obama Error, the market goes dipschit, peaking at 14,000 in the Dow and 1700 on the S&P before everyone realizes we’re running on fumes, and we sell off after the 2012 elections.
• The 2012 Presidential Election if one of the nastiest on record.  Obama drops his class warfare rhetoric as a losing strategy and takes on the First Victim status.  David Axelrod wheels out mystery women on Mitt Romney and the Veep candidate (presumably, Santorum).
• Sarah Palin is a lighting rod, playing the black hat for the GOP, pointing out every government takeover and socialist move passed over the last five years (including the last two years of the Bush Administration).  Obamacare will become a millstone on the President’s neck as more unintended consequences arise, and the forced coverage purchase laws are declared un-Constitutional.
• The Euro stays a viable currency, but Greece, Spain and Portugal drop out of the union.   Italy’s and Ireland’s banking system are saved by British and German investors and stays in the European Union with new manacles.
• President Obama becomes increasingly disassociated with his re-election and by the time he loses to Romney in November, he will have convinced himself — and his true believers — that he will be a more effective member of the Democrat party out of office.

• Romney’s acceptance speech will be affable and conciliatory, hoping to mend the divisiveness of the past six years.  Neither the Tea Party nor the Hard Left will be very happy about the results
• Besides UPS, my best picks of the year will be COP, MON, AG, RGLD, DE and PBR.

And now, the kickoff!   Happy New Year and Geauuuuux Giants!

 

 

 

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(This Car’s body and frame are made from Carbon)
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I know I’ve been waxing poetic about the bounties of raw commodity gold and silver plays, and gosh knows AGQ, MVG, AG, EXK and SLW all performed mightily today, as did ANV and IVN on the gold side (among many others).  However,  I would counsel you also that there’s a whole wide word out there from which to choose.   Make no mistake, the European crisis is not going to be over with the waving of a magic juju stick that makes every price legitimate and no bank under pressure for insolvency.  Call it what you might, but this bailout is simply kicking the can down the considerably strung out road by tossing more money at poor Greek monkey grinders who will only convert it to a lamp shade or a fancy brooch.

That means inflation.

That means all commodities will be in play.  Let’s have some fun, shall we?  Indulge me.   Old favorite (and Jacksonian) beat down TCK was roaring like a Bengal tiger caught in an escalator, up over 10%.   TC — the molybdenum favorite and also Jacksonian was up 7.25%, and even my favorite WNR was fully erect today, adding a cool 9.5%.

But here’s that long developing carbon play I threw at you some months back — CCC.  Remember that monthly chart?  The one that showed that neat consolidating triangle?   Well, faith and begorrah, that triangle is still intact and still consolidating (much like AUY in the recent past).   And given that there are two days left in October, we might even have the pleasure of an actual breakout of some significance here:

Two days for a paradigm shift possibility.  Is that too long to wait?   I wouldn’t.

PS — I have another favorite PM play that has a beautiful monthly chart as well.  Perhaps I’ll share tomorrow sometime if you are pleasant.

 

Best to you all.

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Earlier today, le Monsieur mentioned that he would he would soon be turning his baleful eye — Barad-dûr-style  –upon some key food and bevvy stocks that he thought might survive the upcoming economic apocalypse.   I thought that somewhat coincidental given a recent visit I’d made to a very specialized niche food business in lovely Colombus, Ohio.

Granted, for large scale exposure, I’ve been buying the Dutch giant Unlilever (UL), mostly for its broad (if bland) array of well known consumer products like Hellman’s Mayonnaise, Knorr Soups, Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, Lipton teas… and even Slim-Fast for phat phucks who might overindulge.   I also really like their dividend in this market — almost 4% as of today’s close, and 60 basis points higher than American rival Proctor & Gamble.

The large behemoth aside, the smaller niche food producer I really like is Lancaster Colony (LANC).  These guys have done it right and I guess I have to ascribe it to management.   About ten to fifteen years ago, they got knee deep in the “glass & candle trade” that was all the rage at the time, thanks to fake Pop Americana crap like “Yankee Candle Company.”   When that business went south after formally enjoying ridiculous margins for years, it crushed the stock over a two year period (1998-2000).   But I have to hand it to LANC‘s management — they got back into the food business in a big way, and now own some of America’s most iconic niche brands, including Sister Schubert dinner rolls and Marzetti salad dressing and sauces, Texas Toast under the “N.Y.” brand.  This weekly chart shows how it’s been very strong on a relative strength basis, and how close also we are to a break out:

 

LANC is also another solid dividend play, with continuous dividends paid or increased since the mid-60’s.    Keep an eye on the $64 mark… if we break from there, it’s off to the races for LANC.   And well deserved.  It’s just a nicely run “under the radar screen” play that will continue to pick up niche brands where they will hold dominant market share.  Dominant market share means pricing power and steady growth.   What more could a citizen ask for in these uncertain times?  Besides, if things get really bad, we’ll all be eating their tasty croutons (yes, they’ve dominant share in that market too).

Bon appetit!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOdr9FiNZoQ&feature=related 450 300]

It Sure Ain’t Lionel!

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One thing I can promise you going forward is volatility, in everything, even your Commodores covers.   In fact, I wrote a whole witty diatribe about the dangers of buying “Fo’Teen” here — a.k.a. XIV — the anti-volatility hedge that’s supposed to be the opposite of the bear’s friend in VIX and VXX.   I wrote a whole spiel,  and tried to save it, and WordPress ate it for late evening snack.  Now you get the re-hash, bare-bones style.  Sorry.

It just so happens I was reading something this morning at the esteemed Stocktiming.com website that put me even more in the mind that the recently embattled “Fo’teen” is headed to “Ovaltine” status (that’d be “zero-teen” for the slow-witted among you).

It’s all about the Zero-based RSI indicator which I haven’t time to explain all over again (this being iteration two), so I will just link this page instead.  Suffice it to say, when that indicator is “below the zero line” on the NYA Index, we are looking at continued volatility and difficult-to-trade, bear-leaning markets.

This graphic below, also cadged from Stocktiming.com (hat tip to them),  in conjunction with the link above, will illustrate where we are in the current cycle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see… anytime the zero-based RSI is over that negative line, stocks have had a difficult time of it.

This confirms a lot of what I’ve been seeing in other areas as well, which tells me players are taking chips off the table right now in anticipation of a paltry Fall.

As a result, all I did today was continue to trim.  I actually tried to take some hedges off by letting the declining prices come to me (on the sold calls) but none hit my buy points, so I remain heavily hedged on some of my oldest deepest in the money positions.   I expect that all the value will soon come out of those sold calls, however, and I will likely end up selling even more rather than re-selling more calls at this juncture.

I also bought some more SKF today.  Not a tonne, by any means.  Nothing more than toe-dips for now, as we are due a nice snap-back rally here.   Use these opportunities, people.

My best to you.

 

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First, let me tell you that I am a happy and contented boy this evening. You know this PM game.  Heck, even Le Fly asks me at times how I deal with the convulsions of this lightly traded, lightly regarded sector.  Sometimes it’s not very easy, as you all know.

But the irony remains.   Despite the tremendous, gut-wrenching, teeth swallowing, soul-crushing volatility of this sector, it’s the only one to be in a bull phase over the last ten years.   True, we got a serious “blip” when the whole market folded in late 2008, but that was truly a liquidity-driven event,  separate from the fundamentals of the space.  What’s more, that down-draft was the trading opportunity of a lifetime.  I still own a good portion of the SLW I picked up under $3.00, and that was just one of the gems I found abandoned on the ground in January-February 2009.  You know the story of the Jacksonians from May of that year, when I first started blogging.   Those positions are up hundreds of percent, and I had bought them months before.

Enough idle boasting about the past.   We’re talking about good feelings today, but we’ve endured scars together too.   We’ve undergone a dreadful PM pullback, one that cost me over 15% of my portfolio value, even with cash-outs.  But I’ve been waiting, very patiently, because I had no doubt this bull was not over by any means.  And today I think we can say that at least in the near term, “the coast is clear” for further miner purchasing.   And I plan to make up for lost time as well.

First, let’s see the good news on our friend Baby $HUI:

Given that many of my “in-house” miners– Jacksonians and high flyers like EXK and AG have rocketed up on an RSI basis in the past few days, I think it may not be the best time to buy tomorrow.  This is true as well of my PM Stock of the Decade— XG,  or Extorre Gold Mines. which was spun off from parent company Exeter Resources (XRA)  at the barely substantial price of $2. Yes, $2, back in late March of 2010.   Look at this beautiful company today, a scant 16 months later…

Look at the charts of the strongest Jacksonians and you will not even see the equal of XG.  It was the one precious metal stock in my entire portfolio that did not see a pullback of any substance over the last three months.   That in itself is significant, I believe.

In the meantime, do not be a horse’s ass and buy this tomorrow.  Clearly, it’s overbought, probably because it never got oversold, like it’s poor compadres.   I have indicated above the place where I’d like to add.  And yes, I already have a shitte tonne, but there’s always room for pie, right?

Most stuff is overbought here, but on the radar for tomorrow are some small jumpers — MGH, BRD, AUQ, NXG, CGU, AZK. I also added to my GPL and AXU hordes today.

Best to you all.

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No, not that balding ponce, you tossy sods, but Prince Amukamara, the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year and 6’0″ 219 lb. (eleven stone!) shut down cornerback out of Nebraska, who was wed to the glorious and never diminishing New York Giants Football organization last evening as their 2011 Number One Draft Choice.

And no, you across-the-pond and Eurostanian wankers, not that commie “football,” either, but rather the real thing, with tackling that is encouraged and smiled upon, rather than rewarded with flimsy red cards from referees with tight shorts and no hats.

And let it be known, that in my capacity as the #1 Giant Fan Financial Blogger in the Known Universe, I bestow my blessing on this union (though perhaps not on the NFL Players Union) as a “good match” and for the Giants organization amplify that description by naming it  “a great catch.”  

You see, this kid was supposed to be a top ten draft pick, and I even saw one mock draft that had him going at #6.   There was a tiny bit of hair on him, I guess, given that he enjoyed 5 interceptions in his junior year whilst garnering zero this year.   That can readily be ascribed to quarterbacks never daring to throw in his direction this year, and his largely acknowledged “shut down” reputation, which connotes that the receivers he guarded never caught anything either.  

All that said, I concur 100% with Giant GM Jerry Reese in his assessment that a good defense can “never have enough pass rushers or quality cornerbacks.”   Let’s face it, thanks to TV machinations and wholesale rule changes designed to boost ratings, the NFL has become a passing game.  Despite that tendency in offensive schemes, the old adage that “Defense wins Superbowls” holds true to this day.  Therefore, marrying the two realities, one can only conclude that having superior athletes that can shut down the passing, either by sacking or air-tight coverage (and one can often lead to the other) imperative.

Therefore, I welcome the Prince (he really is a Prince, allegedly, though I doubt you’ll be seeing his nuptials on the E! Network anytime soon) with open arms and great hopes that he will enter the lists — along with Emlen Tunnel, Spider Lockhart, Mark Haynes and Mark Collins— of great Giant defensive backs from this day henceforth.

So shall it be written, so shall it be done.  Amen.

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As for the PM trades, the dollar appears to be continuing to flag bearishly, so I am continuing to be opportunstic in my “fishing.”  I actually grabbed a starter position in AG yesterday afternoon (announced first in The PPT) at $21.33.   I also opened a speculative position in SLW (to augment my stock position) by again purchasing the June $35.00 calls at a price just a hair below $7.15 a contract.

On the gold side, I continue to like ANV and AAU, the former for its relative strength and the latter for it’s takeover possibilities.

I continue to keep in place my lower bids for EXK, AG and AGQ for “just in case” fishing purposes, but I’m not really expecting to get much of those filled.  Fact is, the dollar continues to look sickly here, and I think any bounces at this point will continue to be of the deceased feline variety.
Best to you all.

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