Sheesh, I sure am glad I put that caveat in there yesterday, because all those nice high topped hammers I saw yesterday did nothing but crash off my dome all day long today. Let’s face it, I’m starting to get a little tired of this pullback (down over 9% this month!), m’self, and even more so given the relative reasonableness of today’s market on the specifically non-Jacksonian financial sector today. Talk about a victory for the bloody Redcoats!
That said, I haven’t stopped picking up shares in various stocks that I consider bargains at these prices. I’m just flabbergasted at how low ((SSRI)) and ((PAAS)) and ((SLW)) have gotten. I bot more SSRI yesterday, and got another 2k of SLW today (at $8.26 on the gap fill), so I guess tomorrow is PAAS’s day?
For those of you who have been accumulating slowly here, bravo. The Jacksonian Portfolio is defintely a Spartan marathon and not a dash to the corner deli for a pack of Kools and a pint of Sunny Delight. This “bucking bull” volatility is going to be here for the duration, so we’re going to have to “get in shape” by taking some cash off the table from time to time, like I did with ((TC)) the other day.
As you may recall, that 1/3 TC sale and the liquidation of the original TSO position left me with some $14,607 in cash from the original portfolio. I finally decided to put the bulk of that to work with an initial $10k position in ((TCK)), as we’ve contemplated. It didn’t hurt that TCK was having a good day, let me tell you. Now I have $4.6 k left in cash, and soon I’ll begin incorporating the cash component into the overall returns as well. It doesn’t make any sense to take profits and then not incorporate that into the total return of the portfolio.
As well, I’ve decided to be a bit more “illustrative” in this account by dealing with hedging in a different way than I do in my personal account. As it’s too complex (and annoying) to incorporate the short calls I usually use to hedge my portfolio, I will more simply sell portions (or all) of the Jacksonians in order to accrue cash in the portfolio and take risk off the table. I think that will probably be easier for you all to follow as well. Your comments are welcome.
I haven’t much in the way of commentary on the Jacksons today other than my notes below. I will say that we continue to be brutally oversold, and we are due for a cycle low here in the precious metals any day now. I continue to believe you will be rewarded for your perseverance here.
Because I felt bad about all these bloody Jacksons (save TCK) I figured I’d dig up one “present” for tomorrow… a non-Jacksonian I did the fibs on tonight is [[MTL]] — Mechel OAO. Coking coal, steel, molybdenum, it’s got it all. I like it because it touched beautifully off the23.6% intermediate term fibonacci line today and it looks like it’s ready to go again. The other one I like for tomorrow we’ve already discussed… PPT favorite [[SPAR]]. Best to you all.
| Name | 17-Jun | 18-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 28.88 | $ 28.18 | -2.42% | Will sell half on a break of $28. Gap fill at $26.60 | |
| EGO | 8.65 | 7.97 | -7.86% | Trend line @ 7.78. Bearish engulfing says we get it. | |
| GDX | 38.23 | 37.20 | -2.69% | Failed hammer, back to support. | |
| GLD | 92.35 | 91.60 | -0.81% | POG $934, within yest range | |
| IAG | 9.65 | 9.10 | -5.70% | Sell 1/2 on break of support @ 8.75 | |
| MON | 81.08 | 82.30 | 1.50% | Cramer beat it up tonight, a net positive. | |
| NRP | 22.13 | 21.95 | -0.81% | 5 red days in a row? C’mon already! | |
| PAAS | 20.39 | 18.59 | -8.83% | Uptrend line at 17.95. Pssin me off. | |
| RGLD | 43.73 | 41.98 | -4.00% | Hammer doji on trendline, EOD buying | |
| SLV | 14.12 | 13.97 | -1.06% | POSilver @14.24, inside day | |
| SLW | 8.80 | 8.30 | -5.68% | Filled that last gap at $8.27, bot 2k more $8.26 | |
| SSRI | 19.22 | 18.13 | -5.67% | Do not like this action one bit. | |
| TBT | 54.17 | 55.76 | 2.94% | Gap @ 54.21. Could come back once more. | |
| TC | 10.50 | 10.50 | 0.00% | Perfect doji day. | |
| TCK | 15.31 | 16.28 | 6.34% | Nice first day on the job. | |
| AVG (daily) | -2.32% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -8.32% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 13.91% | ||||
| Cash ( 000’s) | $ 4.61 | ||||
Jake,
Well, I am sharing your pain though you are getting hit a bit worse than I am. I have imprinted a lot of charts into my brain lately but I keep coming back to the dollar as the most definitive. Unless that idiot in North Korea launches a missile at us (that doesn’t blow up during the first stage) then the dollar chart looks to me like a bear flag and when it breaks south gold, silver, and everything else will break north again. We are selling $104 BILLION in debt next week – a new record. That should help set the stage.
This dragon bitch of a market is trying to wear us all out – and is doing a pretty good job. I am still long all my precious and commodity plays and am down about 6% on the week, still up on the month. All the charts look about the same – holding at critical support. Australia looks the same as the commodity charts. The dollar looks like a rally that should fail.
Take a look at the long term gold chart as well – 3 years or so. It sure looks to me like we are in a “final” consolidation before we break definitively through $1000.
Sell things that have definitively broken their MA lines but I would keep anything that has probed support and survived based on the dollar chart. Of course this could all change but right now based on what I know I am holding my ground like Wellington at Waterloo.
…and buy more Fortescue!
Kel – When I quarried j (a wizard from Oz)about FSUMF he said to avoid it due to shoddy mgmt… what’s your rational?
E8,
From a short term perspective the chart. Looks primed to break higher after the current consolidation.
Longer term they are, I believe, the #3 Australian iron ore miner with Chinese investment. In light of the Rio/BHP deal I think you can expect greater Chinese investment into the junior Australian miners as well as a potential listing in Shanghai. Once the recovery takes hold and with the expected price rises they should be in a very solid money making position. They have institutional sponsorship in the US which is a plus.
Their CEO is the largest shareholder which to me is a plus – he is committed. That said, he has gotten into hot water with the Australian regulators regarding public statements he has made that impacted the stock price but that were not fully accurate. That I think is correctable.
Take a look at their website and financials and see what you think.
Cramer bashed MON last nite. I know he’s an idiot but alot of people don’t. POT & MOS are the canary in the coal mine. I wish I could say I wish you luck with MON but I hate those bastards. All I could think about last night was WTF is Cramer going to do with all that Roundup(tm) he had in his Roundup-amid. I hope they got it free, get a refund, or at least dispose of it properly.
Cramer smokes Roundup, and is perhaps the third best contra-indicator I know after Devil Dawg and Tim Knight.
Actually, he might even be nosing out Tim Knight.
“Head and shoulders” was his rationale?
Boy am I glad I don’t waste my time with that bubblevision nonsense.
Take it as a gift.
_____________
Oh, and Scum, stop being a piker and get on the PPT.
Then you’d know TRA is the “follow” and not those other two pikers.
_______
Kel — I have been watching FSUMF and am probably going to start a position today.
I just lover that ticker, and I think Trader Caddy should get a thousand shares (at least) for his son, as a “going pro” present.
Then when that ex-SEC player looks at his statements every month he can say “FSU MoFo’s!”
_______________
Did anyone take Uncle Jake’s advice and buy MTL on the open?
Anyone?
Anyone?
Buhler?
______________
SPAR doing nicely as well.
_______
Yeah, picked up some SPAR yesterday… thanks for pointing it out.
Also started a position in AGQ yesterday at $44.75 – really hoping to see a little upward movement in silver. My ass is raw from the licking I’ve caught in SLW over the last couple weeks.
Jake, have you ever considered playing some of these PMs on the short side? You watch them so carefully, and most of the time it seems like you call for the pull back. Just a thought.
Oh, and Scum, stop being a piker and get on the PPT.
Then you’d know TRA is the “follow” and not those other two pikers.
His words, not mine.
[rense has another pick 4 U]
Guys, seriously, buy more Fortesque but do so knowing the CEO is a really dishonest sack of shit who makes Ken Lewis look like Jesus Christ. The stock could go higher but you just don’t know that the fucker is up to.
I heard on the bush telegraph some time ago that several shipments of ore they sent to China was too moist and the Chinese refused the shipment.
The trouble with that stock is that the Chinese could really fuck them over before slipping in a lazy bid at the bottom.
Be really careful.
In any event the Chinese can do what they like, they can scream blue murder but the real game in town for them is the two big mines as they are the cheapest producers in the street.
Be very careful with Fortesque.
BLUE MURDER!!
Sold half my SLV at $14.07 and bought AGQ at $45.00. Let’s see how this one plays. Boy, the volume in AGQ is light. Should have looked more closely at that before jumping in. I hope I can get out easily if I need to.
My June $12.50 CDE calls are dead, barring some miracle. Good thing I only picked up 5 contracts. Another one of those life lessons. Just a small ding in the overall scheme of things (maybe $750?), but hurtful to my pride and therefore will keep me more in line with my trading. I expected we could have a small pullback in silver (in fact we were in the middle of a moderate pullback when I made the play), but I never expected the damn trapdoor to oblivion to open under my feet.
Bought 1000 CDE at $10.76 and 2000 AZK at $3.58
“Blue murder” is very Olde schoole Commonwealth country kind of talk.
We like that around here, let’s have more of it, eh chaps?
_______
Outd — the thing you gotta remember about CDE is that it just 10-1 reverse split.
That means they took an option and dressed it up for a night on the town.
You don’t need to buy options on an option. Buy ’em on the more stable stuff… volatility squared sucks.
________
FYI on “other than Jackson stuff” I just opened a starter position on IRE, today and yesterday buys, average about 10.72.
Like the leprechauns here, AIB too.
_____
RBY is BTFO this morning, not sure if that’s E8’s “secret stock” but since I own it already, fuck him.
Looks to be flagging here, keep an eye for further motion.
_____
Fuck you …
The Pequop Gold Claims adjoin the properties now being drilled by the Fronteer (FRG)/AuEx Ventures Inc. (AUXVF) joint venture, called the Long Canyon Project on the east side of the Pequop Mountains just over the ridge from their West Pequop Mountain Project JV with Agnico-Eagle (AEM) in east central Nevada.
The Fronteer JV Group has drilled over 35,000 feet of core and reverse circulation drilling here on the Long Canyon Project. Announcements this spring defined a potential minimum one million ounce gold ore body to date with open extension over a mile and a half to the north, south and west of the original soil gold anomaly targets.
Some of the drill holes recorded values of over 75 feet of .391 ounces of gold per ton and shorter intercepts from .763 ounces per ton to as high as 1.231 ounces of gold per ton.
The results of their aggressive continuing drill programs here have resulted in a company executive stating: “These new assay results in hole 63C at the Main Zone of Long Canyon are outstanding and the shallow depth and the oxidized character of the mineralization, make Long Canyon truly an exciting discovery”.
Complete drill results and data for the area can be found on the Fronteer Development Group and the AuEx Ventures Inc. web sites. All three companies have announced major financing proposals to continue their drilling and exploration programs on these exciting new gold discoveries.
http://www.auexventures.com/s/FactSheet.asp
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=frg&=
FRG has 51% and AUXVF 49% (AEM can earn up to 70% of AuEX’s interest)
If AEM buys AuEx they kill 2 birds with 1 stone – they get the entire interest in the jt venture and become partners with EGO on jt ventures listed on the fact sheet. FRG has a market cap of $425m and AuEx $100m so AEM could buy both with their credit line and control the entire project.
Niiiiice!!
I knew some judicious niggling would bring your better humours to the fore!
_
You’re an idiot that believes government economic recovery propaganda. It’s because of sheeple like you that America sucks ass.
Must say, RBY has property in Long Canyon too but since AEM has JV on Red Lake I just can’t see them buying RBY for their LC land holdings at this point when they could easily JV those properties too. AEM is limited to about 35% of the FRG-AUXVF find unless they buy FRG and AUXVF so I’ve bought in there. I do like RBY and may buy some on a pullback but I’ve also found a few lottery tickets with large land rights near the Nevada JV and may buy some lots there for fun.
I haven’t listened to all of MON’s conference calls, so I don’t know if this is a new concern, but on the last call investors questioned how MON can protect its intellectual property in rogue nations. MON didn’t have a good answer.
They invest hundred of millions in R&D, and it can take several generations to develop a seed strain with the desired traits, then someone like China can clone it in one year?
You’re an idiot that believes government economic recovery propaganda. It’s because of sheeple like you that America sucks ass.
I think you are on the wrong blog, dimwit.
Why not pack up your camo bag and tell it to someone who gives a shit?
_______
They invest hundred of millions in R&D, and it can take several generations to develop a seed strain with the desired traits, then someone like China can clone it in one year?
Well China’s a member of the WTO, so I doubt they’d want that kind of trouble, but NoKo? Sure. That’s the breaks, and why you need to police your patents well, globally.
________
JakeGint Says:
They invest hundred of millions in R&D, and it can take several generations to develop a seed strain with the desired traits, then someone like China can clone it in one year?
Well China’s a member of the WTO, so I doubt they’d want that kind of trouble, but NoKo? Sure. That’s the breaks, and why you need to police your patents well, globally.
________
What a stupid fucking answer from a stupid fucking sheeple. Like China follows WTC trademark rules. You’re a fucking idiot.
Devil Delicious –
STFU, you ignorant dufus. You know absolutely zip, and you prove it every time you touch fingerpad to keyboard.
China knows it has to get serious about patents, or it loses it’s trade status, douche.
_
And “sheeple” is plural, Ignorantus.
As in “Devil Dawg’s Sheeple have dug themselves out a shelter in Montana to await the End Times. Ain’t they ig’nant?”
I don’t know why you bother, Jake.
And Devil Dog, really. As a former CFO, you must have the tools to do better than that.
My colleague J and I cannot imagine anyone stooping to these personal attacks.
Seriously, DD, we all know that one day the Earth is going to explode and everybody dies. So unless you can map out your POV — put some dates and numbers against your thesis — then why bother taking time away from stocking the bunker and target practice to throw acid-filled water balloons at the sheeple?
And yes, I am feeling quite superior and Ghandi-esque at the moment.
It will pass.
Thank you, Mo-hand-us.
__
Damn, DD has a case of the ass. Hey DD, who pissed on your morning Alpo(tm)?
Much better day for the Jacksons today… report out later, but up about 1.5%.
Meanwhile, here’s some “Must read” material for those of us who want to keep the banksters in line and our gummint honest.
_________
One last thing that is a very interesting read… especially if you have invested in DNDN over the last couple of years (and who hasn’t, I ask you??)…
Mike Milken, 60,000 deaths and the story of Dendreon.
__
Update: Just realized I had TCK synching off the historical price data of (the recently sold Jackson) TSO instead of it’s own for the JCHP port, so slight adjustment above.
_______
bought paas in the end..cjake you see bullishness coming on thisnot-so-bad end of week , isn’ it ( I feel more bullish for the upcoming week )
djnewswires out :
LIMA (Dow Jones)–Peru is expected to increase its silver production 3.0%
this year over last year to 3,800 metric tons, Peru’s National Society For
Mining, Petroleum and Energy said Friday.
It said Peru thereby will consolidate its first-place position in global
silver production.
The society said Peru is followed by Mexico, China, Australia and Chile.
Among the largest silver producers in Peru are Compania Minera Volcan SAA
(VOLCABC1.VL); Compania de Minas Compania Buenaventura SAA (BVN); Sociedad
Minera El Brocal SAA (BROCALC1.VL); Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) and
Compania Minera Antamina SA.
Among Volcan’s mines is one at Vinchos, where silver was extracted to make
part of the ransom payment the Inca people collected in 1533 in an unsuccessful
attempt to free their leader, Atahualpa, from Spanish conquistadors.
-By Robert Kozak, Dow Jones Newswires; 511-99927 7269; [email protected]
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today’s most
important business and market news, analysis and commentary:
http://www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd=t8qW8jUx%2BIXENFAy%2FAYL3g%3D%3D. You can
use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-19-09 1403ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
14:03 061909
news just out
djwires:
LIMA (Dow Jones)–Peru is expected to increase its silver production 3.0%
this year over last year to 3,800 metric tons, Peru’s National Society For
Mining, Petroleum and Energy said Friday.
It said Peru thereby will consolidate its first-place position in global
silver production.
The society said Peru is followed by Mexico, China, Australia and Chile.
Among the largest silver producers in Peru are Compania Minera Volcan SAA
(VOLCABC1.VL); Compania de Minas Compania Buenaventura SAA (BVN); Sociedad
Minera El Brocal SAA (BROCALC1.VL); Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) and
Compania Minera Antamina SA.
Among Volcan’s mines is one at Vinchos, where silver was extracted to make
part of the ransom payment the Inca people collected in 1533 in an unsuccessful
attempt to free their leader, Atahualpa, from Spanish conquistadors.
-By Robert Kozak, Dow Jones Newswires; 511-99927 7269; [email protected]
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today’s most
important business and market news, analysis and commentary:
http://www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd=t8qW8jUx%2BIXENFAy%2FAYL3g%3D%3D. You can
use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-19-09 1403ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
14:03 061909
The same guy that reported the original bear raid warning for DNDN is at it again … hmmmm
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?bn=5342&tid=773319&mid=773319