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It’s nice to have gotten into the Final Four here of the famed iBC Tourney this year, but I am almost remorseful to have taken that golden bone away from such a weurthy opponent as “Kreppa Nu,” a proud member of The PPT, and a strong stock picker in his own right.
And just to show how much these contests rely upon the whim of a day’s timing, look how his champion SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] rose from the ashes today.
I told you SNDK was a good pick, and only a matter of time before it re-coiled itself and was ready to take off again. I want to thank my friend for pointing this one out for me. I think it’s got legs, no matter what the governmental gnomes can throw at us in the coming weeks.
As for the rest of the market, I’m not so sure. Today, we were saved by a weakening dollar — [[UUP]] — there’s no getting around it. The balance we have to strike right now is an increasingly ugly fiscal scenario versus a madman at the printing presses, trying to keep all the balls floating for as long as possible.
To say I’m pessimistic might be understating things, but I’m not going to flush my positions until I see the whites of the enemies’ eyes. Right now, the [[DJT]] and the harbinger United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] are still in breakout patterns.
Until I see a breakdown out of those pullbacks, I’m staying long, though not necessarily “strong.” Watching gold for a break of $1,100 as well.
Best to you, my sons and daughters of Barack.
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Update: Let’s see what’s actually in this sucker they passed yesterday. Enjoy!
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could be until May that we really see the deep pullback that you and Fly are looking for.
More agreud w. you than the Fly here. Not seeing anything but a brief pullback in the works. Crazy, but you cannot deny what the Trannies are doing right now.
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Sell in May as they say with this catalyst on the way:
http://www.xe.com/news/2010/03/03/989249.htm?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=TL&utm_content=NOGEO&utm_campaign=News_RSS_Art3
Also, when groups like casinos and chemicals are breaking out to multi quarter highs on volume you simply have to respect that. The ferociousness and velocity of the 2008 crash created a huge gap that has allowed us to drift higher without classic bull market volume.
Still climbing that wall …. too many non-believers
IMO, by the time you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes, you will be locked out of your accounts due to a bank holiday and sudden USD devaluation. This is the way the enemy moves. Plan for it.
That’s what I gots the PM’s for. Unless rule of law goes completely out the window, we should be okay.
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Fuck the caddy and get to work on me sitting on beach with booze and blunts (sobwbab ; )
TIA
Funny you should mention. You have been “assessed.”
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Ha ha…i thought that comment was in response to mine but wasn’t sure because you never can tell when viewing from phone.
I gather my assessment went ‘swimmingly’?
“To say I’m pessimistic might be understating things, but I’m not going to flush my positions until I see the whites of the enemies’ eyes.”
These positions you are referring to, are they your non-PM positions (miners and such) or all the above?
Every dom t’ing mon.
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‘Spain it to me Lucy. What happened to your secular bull thesis and the idea that the more money they print, the better the Jacksonians are positioned?
As long as they keep printing the dough, we are good, and they will not stop, believe it. But there are still cycles within cycles, and we are tremendously overbought right now.
You see VECO today? Cadillac Jack!
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BTW — it’s a CYCLICAL bull, and a secular bear.
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just testing you…
btw, wtf with XRA? Yikes.
Epic face plant by my boys vs. NO Iowa. But hey, at least we didn’t lose to SOUTHERN IOWA! Those guys reaaaalllly suck this year. (stole that joke from Phog.net) We were flat, they played like they had nothing to lose and were scraping for their lives. We were just sitting there watching rebounds, throwing the ball away, chucking up three’s vs. getting it to our big guys. We deserved to lose. I’m very thankful for our 2008 team and that I can hang onto to those memories for a while now. They had the killer instinct that this crew seemed to lack. Oh well, it’s just a game.
Hope you are well, Jake.
Losing to a directional school is never easy!
Jake…..please do a whole post as Mr. Limm….that shit cracks me up everytime.
Jayhawk — good to see still breathing… I was worried after last weekend…
KC — I dunno if I could do a whole post… have to think about it.
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“V” for Victory….
And VECO!
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On the bright side, we’re only half as miserable as we were in the 70’s:
http://www.visualeconomics.com/national-misery-by-congress_2010-03-22/
Just you wait ‘Enry ‘Iggins, just you wait.
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JG!-
Because of my prior “obligations” and my nocturnal “tendencies”, I’ve only just now read your post.
Thanks for the kind words and considering my pick a weurthy adversary!
I have never been blogged about before.
Consider it a sign of the market top…
Tell your Mom I will get your high school “formal” picture back to her, post haste.
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That’s actually my brother… My fingernails were always embarrassingly shorter.
Some OEW explanation for this crazy market:
Long Term:
A 200+ year GSC started in 1932. There will be no crash and no depression [as] it occurred over 75 years ago. The first 70+ year SC bull market of this new GSC started in 1932 and ended in 2007. The bear market that followed from 2007-2009 corrected that bull market. We’ve labeled the 2007 high as SC1 and the 2009 low as SC2. A new 70+ year Supercycle bull market is underway, SC3. Supercycle bull markets unfold in five Cycle waves. For a good example of this review the SC bull market between 1932-2007. The first bull market coming off a SC bear market low should be labeled Cycle wave [1]. The bear market to follow will be labeled Cycle wave [2]. These first two Cycle waves usually create the foundation for the stock market before the explosive upside that is to follow during Cycle waves [3] and [5]. Some technicians would call this a basebuilding process. In other words, the market will not shoot to the moon from here! Cycle wave [1], this bull market, will unfold in five Primary waves I thru V. It is not likely to make new all time highs. Although marginal new highs are possible. Typically a commodity bull market, which is usually transpiring during this reflation period, eventually stunts the advance of the bull market in stocks. Inflation drives up yields, and rising yields slow down most mature economies. After the commodity bull market runs its course, likely to end in 2014, the stock market bases and then starts the next Cycle wave bull market.
Understandably there will be some critics since some of this analysis goes against conventional thought. This is to be expected. OEW is not EW. OEW quantifies the waves as they unfold. Then we do our best to interpret what it is projecting. OEW is the market. We simply project, monitor and adjust when necessary.
From the Mar09 SPX 667 SC2 bear market low we can count five waves up into the recent SPX 1170 high. The waves unfolded as follows: Jun09 SPX 956, July09 SPX 869, Jan10 SPX 1150, Feb10 SPX 1045, and the current uptrend SPX 1170 thus far. Normally during a five wave sequence we expect alternation between the two corrections, and then a sizeable correction after the fifth wave concludes. That’s textbook EW. Occassionally, however, the corrections do not alternate in wave structure. This last occurred after the 1987 crash, the 1984 low and the 1982 low. What this wave structure suggests is the first uptrend was of one degree and the second uptrend of one lesser degree. Many EW’ers would refer to this as a 1-2-1-2. This suggests the current uptrend, which is already making new highs, is a third wave of this one lesser degree.
We are counting the Mar 09 SPX 667 low as a Supercycle wave 2 low. This count suggests the first bull market coming off this low will be Cycle wave [1]. The bear market to follow will be Cycle wave [2]. This is exactly how the previous Supercycle (1932-2007) bull market wave 1 began: Cycle [1] 1937 and Cycle [2] 1942. When expecting a bull market to be of a Cycle wave degree we expect it to unfold in five Primary waves. Therefore the first uptrend is usually labeled Primary wave I and the first downtrend Primary wave II. If the first series of uptrends and downtrends are small, which was normally the situation in the 1980’s, then we drop down a degree and label them Major waves. In our current market the first two uptrends were large and nearly equal, while the first two downtrends were nearly equal and of a normal size. This makes the labeling quite obvious. Therefore we have labeled Jun09 SPX 956 Primary wave I and July09 SPX 869 Primary wave II. The Jan10 SPX 1150 high is then labeled Major wave 1 and the Feb10 SPX 1045 low Major wave 2. Major wave 3 has been underway since that low.
Before moving on to discuss Major wave 3 in the next section. We’ll try to address some questions that are on some people’s mind. The stock market and the ‘real world’ economy are not moving in unison. Agree! Some sectors have improved but many americans are still unemployed and losing their homes. This is quite similar to the start of the Supercycle wave one (1932-1937). The country remained in a depression for most americans but the stock market had a five year bull market.
The US and many other countries have more debt than they can service. Agree! The debt is astronomical and will have to be dealt with between now and the next bear market. Remember, debt is either paid, defaulted or depreciated by inflation/currency devaluation. The first two options are highly unlikely.
The SPX does not display a clear impulsive wave count for the July-Jan uptrend. Agree! Without creative labeling it’s difficult to find a completed impulsive wave. The market, however, is not the traders SPX but the often neglected DOW. The DOW has been around for nearly 100 years and, despite the irregular component changes, it’s the most quoted index for the US market. The wave structure in the DOW supports an impulse wave for the second uptrend.
There is no way a bear market rally can turn into a bull market. Disagree! Large B wave bear market rallies start off the same way as a new bull market. In fact they are often mistaken for new bull markets. They start from extremely oversold conditions and panic low prices. What separates one from the other is the rising waves are very choppy for bear market rallies and more impulsive for new bull markets. Then when the often ABC zigzag B wave rally concludes, the bear market starts impulsing to the downside while the bull market only corrects in a small abc. This transition period is an inflection point. In retrospect, we recognized the Mar09 low within days of the event and called for a bear market rally between the 1107 and 1179 OEW pivots. Then in Jan10 we recognized the top of that uptrend and awaited the results of the inflection point. Where we failed, we did not take a less bearish stance when our indicators were improving during July-Aug09. We should have remained bearish but we should have also offered an alternate bullish count in the US. Afterall, we were offering primary bullish counts in many of the foreign markets. Despite OEW displaying the actual waves in all the markets, our approach to reading OEW has yet to become a pure science.
Medium Term – Major Wave3
[Our] analysis suggests this bull market is working on three month up cycles. Since Major wave 3 started in Feb 2010 we should be looking for an uptrend top in May 2010.
With Major wave 1 being nearly equal to Primary wave I, Major wave 3 can do just about anything in regard to price. Major 3 can be 0.618 of Major 1 (SPX 1219), equal to Major 1 (SPX 1326), or even 1.618 times Major 1 (SPX 1500). Okay maybe not that high! The first two levels, SPX 1219 and 1326, are more realistic. When we review the OEW pivots. Which often provide support/resistance in the SPX. We find several pivots at and in between these two levels. The first pivot is SPX 1222 and the last is at SPX 1313. So this would be the anticipated price range for the current uptrend. Another thing we have noticed about price, we first started mentioning this months ago, is this bull market appears to be tracking the significant waves of the last bull market. For example, Major 1 Dec02 SPX 954 – Primary I Jun09 SPX 956, Major 3 Mar04 SPX 1163 – Major 1 Jan10 SPX 1150. The next significant wave occurred in Mar05 at SPX 1229 and then May06 at SPX 1327. Notice the pattern. To conclude we have significant waves at SPX 1229 and 1327, fibonacci relationships at SPX 1219 and 1326, OEW pivots at SPX 1222 and 1313, and two more months to get to there. Since Major wave 3 will unfold in five Intermediate waves we will not know for a while if it will be the lower or the higher or possibly somewhere in between. Stay tuned.
Short Term:
The uptrend resumed today after three days of consolidation. The rally pushed the SPX over the OEW 1168 pivot and the market finished just under the 1176 pivot. The major indices are starting to display negative divergences at these new highs. Will keep an eye on this over the next couple of days. This rally, which started at SPX 1086, has been quite steady and has not confirmed any significant reversal waves yet. The SPX would have to break below the 1160 area to display any signs of downside momentum.
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/?_c11_BlogPart_BlogPart=blogview&_c=BlogPart&partqs=amonth%3d3%26ayear%3d2010
Jake, what do u make of EXK’s results?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/endeavour-silver-reports-record-financial-and-operating-results-in-2009-2010-03-24-92330?reflink=MW_news_stmp