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It’s nice to have gotten into the Final Four here of the famed iBC Tourney this year, but I am almost remorseful to have taken that golden bone away from such a weurthy opponent as “Kreppa Nu,” a proud member of The PPT, and a strong stock picker in his own right.

And just to show how much these contests rely upon the whim of a day’s timing, look how his champion SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] rose from the ashes today.   

I told you SNDK was a good pick, and only a matter of time before it re-coiled itself and was ready to take off again.   I want to thank my friend for pointing this one out for me.   I think it’s got legs, no matter what the governmental gnomes can throw at us in the coming weeks.

As for the rest of the market, I’m not so sure.  Today, we were saved by a weakening dollar — [[UUP]] — there’s no getting around it.    The balance we have to strike right now is an increasingly ugly fiscal scenario versus a madman at the printing presses, trying to keep all the balls floating for as long as possible.

To say I’m pessimistic might be understating things, but I’m not going to flush my positions until I see the whites of the enemies’ eyes.   Right now, the [[DJT]] and the harbinger United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] are still in breakout patterns.  

Until I see a breakdown out of those pullbacks, I’m staying long, though not necessarily “strong.” Watching gold for a break of $1,100 as well.

Best to you, my sons and daughters of Barack.

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Update: Let’s see what’s actually in this sucker they passed yesterday. Enjoy!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw5g9K2dFKM 450 300] _________

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Helpless Feeb Trading, FTW! (Or Not)
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I don’t usually go for the whole gloating thing, as it’s unkind, and generally karmically challenging.

I’ll make an exception this one time, however.  Call it karmic recognition if you will.   Much to the cognitively challenged’s chagrin, [[SLV]] is triumphant once again, after many weeks of representing second place to Canadians and other luge and curling aficionados.

The dollar index, [[DXY]] , is back below $80.00, currently trading at $79.86. It’s proxy [[UUP]] is below a significant (61.8%) intermediate term Fibonacci line ($23.52), and looks to be heading towards $23.13, it’s next support.

Many of my compatriots are short or heavily in cash. Small traders have one of the lowest call positions recorded since last March’s lows. People cannot believe this market can go up. In short– It’s a basket weaver’s market, and I’ve just finished a fine set of cane-rush patio chairs.

I’d like [[AGQ]] to stay above $55.02, and [[EXK]] to stay above $3.36 first, and then $3.61 second.   Near term target is $3.76, but I’m holding for the long term.  [[SVM]] is approaching a very important 61.8% fib line at $6.99, and if it should break it (I don’t think it will on first try, frankly) then it should run right to it’s recent highs at $8.00.    Last, [[PAAS]] is good to go over $22.35, and it’s next stop should be in the $26.50 recent high area.

My favourite, Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is labouring (sic) on low volume here, and needs to get above $15.95 in order to “release” to the recent highs of $17.80.   It bears watching, while bears are watching.

Here’s what’s giving me hope for a bullish continuation even amidst the ursinity of my peers… The Russell (I use RUT or [[IWM]] to track it) is breaking out ahead of the [[SPY]] .     If the [[DJT]] and it’s representative United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] can continue north and break above recent highs, then I will have further comfort.

Until then, please be sure to purchase plenty of technical trading books.  Those authors need to eat, too, you know.

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It’s no secret that I think we’re due a substantial pullback off this 23-week Lorne Green’s Bonanza move we’ve had here, and I’m thinking it will probably come this week, if it’s going to come before the 2010 sell-off my colleague Mssr. le Fly has bruted recently.

One faithful guide I’ve used here many times to plot my course is the trusty Dow Transports [[TRAN]] of Charles Dow’s  Theory fame.    On the following weekly chart, you can see they are approaching an important Fibonacci level — the 61.8% Golden Ratio line, the strongest of the fibonacci levels in my experience:

Note that we are only one short thrust, a cut-purse’s dirk, as it were, from that magic level, at right around $4,215 on the index.  In fact, if we have another day like we had today on the Trannies, we will get there tomorrow.   This will be key an indicator for me as to whether to cover my hedges, or press them further.

For those of you looking for a solid play for après ski-jump,  you know already I’m a strong proponent of game changing technology.  I think Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] owns it, and will be the leader in LED technology as it advances to light our world on only a fraction of the energy and cost of traditional incandescents.   

All without K-cups.

It doesn’t hurt that CREE’s chart is nothing short of a monster, which indicates people far smarter than me are ready to finally back this innovative company after a long period of gestation.  Lookee here at this weekly trend:

You will note above that I believe this slightly overstretched beauty should get a pullback into the $47.50-ish range.  It’s a strong buy — with two fists — there, I’d argue.

Best to you all, tomorrow.

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