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What Goes On at Jake’s Desk Whilst He’s Away
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What the hell goes on around here while I’m gone?  I mean, a man takes a couple of days to go on a top secret mission, and the place falls to wrack and ruin.   I come back and my desk is all askew… my papers molested, my fine Cuban cigars gummed and caked with salivatory drool.   What in the bloody blazes has been going on in my absence!?

What’s that?  Random Errand Boys stealing up to my desk and attempting to short the silver lode??   My impulsive young man!  Why not just go bounce on the high-tensile strength trampoline with a fistful of extra-sharpened #2 Ticonderoga Pencils??

Honestly, I just don’t understand the tendency toward self-immolation that pervades this site in my absence.  Why is it some many of you “traders” look to shower yourselves with butane and then engage in “roman candle horseplay” of the most ill-advised variety?   This is not an episode of “Jackass,” this is high-thesis investing!

Don’t you like money?

Why take the high risk trade?  For thrills, a la Beavis, et al?

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It’s nonsensical, I tell you.  If there’s one thing my compadre Gary Savage and I agree on… it’s this maxim: NEVER SHORT A BULL MARKET!

How many times must I repeat it, and still, like moths to the flame, Icarus to the sun and an Obama Voter to a Trans Fat protest march, you insist on ruining your fragile portfolios by playing with pinless grenades whilst cavorting in a cranberry bog.  And here you come again, your fingerless hand-stumps held out in silent imprecation, blaming me for your troubles.

Well, it’s true, I am here to help.   But you mustn’t be led astray again.  Remember, fading over-confidence in certain sectors of this site is almost as sure a signal as an overbought dollar.   Here’s the latest on that curmudgeonly currency, btw… note how we are advancing into significant zone of resistance on this weekly:

 

Note that I think the dollar can extend all the way back up to that0 $78.10 area, where both the 61.8% golden ratio fibonacci retrace and the rising trend line offer strong resistance.    So don’t be surprised if we pull back a touch more in both the markets and the commodities in the next couple of days as the dollar reaches that resistance level one more time.

After that re-touch, I predict that we will see one final glorious “plungerooni” in the dollar… down to the lows indicated on the above weekly chart.   At this juncture I expect the typical bull here will get drunk on cheap cherry wine and– in the the throes of sock-tongued inebriation– bury his face in the bosom of some local tavern wench.

This, I would contend, would be an ill-usage of your time.   I would rather suggest taking that period to phase out of your remaining long positions including, sadly, your precious metal miners (at least for the nonce), whilst battening down the hatchest with some choice shorts (like the Skiffles).

In the spirit of caution I of course must warn you:  should we break significantly past that $78 dollar index price marking our resistance, all wagers are off, and the window should be closed all the sooner.

My best to you, my Nuttiest of Professors.

 

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Indeud, there is no doubt we stand on the edge of a knife.  Curious formations abound, and give sign.  Take heed…

And then there’s this from today:

And last… the full retrace of the original breakout in the $HUI, Gold Bug Index.  Curiouser and Curiouser:

All the daily charts point to a bounce… not so much this final weekly above, but the circumstances of support could hold here as well.   We have revisited the lows, as I’d feared we should, in order to better stabilize this rebound.   Tomorrow should be interesting.   Be well.

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Call me cynical, but with the Irish Whiskey Soakers getting bailed out via extensive fiscal austerity hand slapping by their European Union betters (bettors?), do you really think this dollar surge is going to last much longer?

I believe the funny money provision is point three or four of “Despotism Made Easy,” which reads like the blueprint for the last four plus years of Hope and Changey recklessness.   I highly recommend the piece for your review — it shouldn’t take you more than ten minutes to read all 14 pages of it.   It explains how keeping people in financial penury by cheapening the paper they use to exchange goods and services (erroneously referred to as “money”) is only one of multiple means toward a targeted despotic end for our once proud Republic.

That need to continue feeding the hungry funny money machine that will keep this economy “going” — at least superficially — will always serve as a millstone around the dollar, no matter it’s near-term reaction to Korean Guttersniping or PIIG-like European snorting.

Since I last left you for a scrumptious giblet delight repast, the dollar has surged in erratic Turkey Gods Trading  all the way to $80.65.  While I was not surprised to see the dollar touch $80.00 on the DXY, I was amazed at how quickly it blew by that number and then almost all the way to $81.00 in subsequent very light trading. 

I just don’t think the dollar has a lot of more runway ahead of it, and it’s not just because of this stealth move in light trading.  It’s also because we’ve retraced the last drop from the highs all the way to the very strong 38.2% Fibonacci Line.   Check it here on the weekly:

That all said, we should gird our loins for a continued move to the $81-$82 region.   It’s not such a stretch from here, and it would be enough to make the recent PM noobs squeal and drop.   Heck, I might even dump some of my December IAG call positions if I see a move to $81.    

Like my pappy always said — be prepared for the worst, so you can take advantage of the best when the time comes.

Best to you all.  

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Curse the Gods of the Precious all ye may, unbelievers and heretics of the Vixx Vapo-Rub-TLT Coalition!  Ye shall not daunt me, nor my precious ego.

Or should I say Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ? For like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and many of the components of [[GDX]] , my massive EGO made a doji high hammah (or whatevah) on strong volume today, indicating their are dip buyers and accumulators galore interested in the safety of these miners and their precious byproducts.

Lookee, here, soldier, and note ye the last two days of EGO-centric action after the recent breakout:

Not bad action on almost double average volume on a down day, no?  What’s more, in after hours, the stock was even green by a tad, much like Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] ended the day today.

As for the dollar, it strikes me that it’s at least temporarily peaking out, with the 50% fib line fast approaching on the weekly chart, and on increasingly lower volume.  I think [[UUP]] may touch the 50% mark at $24.43, but I think the dollar retreats soon thereafter.  Note:

Which is why I believe we were seeing all these PM and PM miner dojis today.   Howabout that?  Get on, or dance the Hugh Hendry in chagrin.

Best to you all.

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Yeah, the dollar is up, but so are the precious metals, so go figure.   It’s not often you see [[UUP]] riding an updraft right along with it’s mortal enemy, real money in the form of [[GLD]] and [[SLV]] .  

What’s going on?  Well, I’ll tell you what I think and it’s just a theory… but I believe the Euro is headed for a bad night with the Reaper, and all the printing presses in Frankfurt are better off producing saurkraut than Euro-denominated debt to back this Grecian salvage job we saw today.   

I’m getting major deja vu, ovah heah, and maybe you are all a tremble with it too.  Remember when the gov’t stepped in and demanded that Jamie Dimon save that piece of rat’s offal, the Bear Stearns Company?  And then soon after, it became impossible to save Lehman Brothers in turn, despite that latter bank’s greater importance to the capital markets’ zeitgeist?

Well, I’m thinking we are going to see the same here with Spain and maybe even Portugal and Italy lining up at the Eurotrough, if this most recent Moral Hazard Play works it’s way out in similar fashion to that of our own Wall Street bank collapse fiasco in 2008.  

 I mean, why stop at Greece?  That is, unless you have to?

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That said, there are havens of safety and they are in the leaders.   One such King Kong in the precious metal space is Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , which I’ve loved since it was a little $6 stock, barely in knee pants. 

 For the love of Uncle Mike, why don’t you pay attention to my picks like this one?  Do I not provide enough excitement with these double and triple baggers over a 12 month period?  Ah well, it’s not like I haven’t been eating my own pudding, right?  My gosh, take a look at this weekly chart:

Yes, that’s pretty much “free air” you are seeing in these current climes… marked by very little resistance.   I’d love to see this beauty taken out by one of the acquisition-minded bigs, but I’m content to sit on my gains and allow them to continue to accumulate, no mattah (sic).

Speaking of charts that look like Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] look at CREE, again, and don’t forget about the monster move Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] made today.  Make no mistake, these companies are going to be the new tech leaders, much like the Microsoft Corporation [[MSFT]] ‘s and Dell Inc. [[DELL]] ‘s and eBay Inc. [[EBAY]] ‘s were in the techy past.   You should be content to accumulate these plays, along with such other long term targets like Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and Monsanto Company [[MON]] .

That’s what I’m here for… the long term stuff and the stability.   Not overly exciting, but a great deal of solid companies, doing the best in their fields.   Now go on, get.  There’s probably some teevee on, or something…

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I haven’t time and there’s no explaining, Lucy.  Let not your heart be troubled by my tribulations, as they number among the Blackberried.

Let it be known that I hate switching servers, but not my fellow man, even as he deserves it, verily.

Wow, chip and merrily, I cannot get over the stalwarts today. First, let’s look at the banker’s weekly on the [[BKX]] :

Robusto, no? You know what they say about robust banking stocks, yes?   Now look at the Trannies, Granny:

 

 

Voila!  Not only have you the perfect sell data, but you can take the bus to the bank as well.   It helps if your eyeliner is smudgy, but barring that, keep your eye on the above two indexes and above all watch [[UUP]] and DXY.  

Bless us all, everyone.

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Bonus track!  Testamentum Eternum!

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