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It’s nice to have gotten into the Final Four here of the famed iBC Tourney this year, but I am almost remorseful to have taken that golden bone away from such a weurthy opponent as “Kreppa Nu,” a proud member of The PPT, and a strong stock picker in his own right.

And just to show how much these contests rely upon the whim of a day’s timing, look how his champion SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] rose from the ashes today.   

I told you SNDK was a good pick, and only a matter of time before it re-coiled itself and was ready to take off again.   I want to thank my friend for pointing this one out for me.   I think it’s got legs, no matter what the governmental gnomes can throw at us in the coming weeks.

As for the rest of the market, I’m not so sure.  Today, we were saved by a weakening dollar — [[UUP]] — there’s no getting around it.    The balance we have to strike right now is an increasingly ugly fiscal scenario versus a madman at the printing presses, trying to keep all the balls floating for as long as possible.

To say I’m pessimistic might be understating things, but I’m not going to flush my positions until I see the whites of the enemies’ eyes.   Right now, the [[DJT]] and the harbinger United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] are still in breakout patterns.  

Until I see a breakdown out of those pullbacks, I’m staying long, though not necessarily “strong.” Watching gold for a break of $1,100 as well.

Best to you, my sons and daughters of Barack.

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Update: Let’s see what’s actually in this sucker they passed yesterday. Enjoy!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw5g9K2dFKM 450 300] _________

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfINBYmGD1A 450 300]

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I don’t often talk about the University of Kentucky on this site, being a “mostly” Louisville Cardinals fan (and they don’t like it much around here when you’re “both.”  You might as like to try to “borry” from a man’s still instead).   However, UK freshman, SEC “Player of the Year,” “Newcomer of the Year,” and quite possibly #1 NBA draft pick John Wall makes for a nice metaphor for today’s dollar discussion.

Wall, while deified in the Blue Grass for his eye-popping offensive talents, is going to be the number one (or #2, his teammate DeMarcus Cousins may go #1) draft pick because of his defensive capabilities, which are sometimes similarly eye-popping.   It’s arguable, for instance, that he beat Vanderbilt at Vanderbilt all by himself with a last second shot block on a dead-eye three-point shooter, followed by a clean pick of the ball right from said startled shooter’s hands.  

What’s that?  Of course Youtube has the clip!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZzXhhd6CRA 450 300]

Pretty spiffy, no?   You don’t see that kind of instinctive defensive thinking in a lot of freshman.

And that kind of defensive, er… “wall” brings to mind our old weekly dollar chart and the “fib wall” we’d identified as going to be a tough area to breach.   It turns out, the 200-week exponential moving average (“EMA”) served as a barrier as well.   Look at the slow topping we’ve seen here, keeping in mind this is a weekly chart:

I think this bodes well, at least in the near term, for our commodities “risk trade,” and especially the precious metals, which are perking up quite nicely this morning as the dollar (DXY) drops below $80.00.    [[AGQ]] is taking all it’s friends out for a champagne party, and purchasing them Norma Kamali handbags.   Fellow silvers [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] and even rag-tag Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] are also again off to the races.  As always, the best name in silver is Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .  On the gold side, you know my favourites (sic) but NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] is really picking up steam as it matures here.

Keep an eye as well on our dollar proxy [[UUP]] , which we’d like to see stay below $23.60 for our shiny metal dominance to continue.

On top of our usual metal trades, it seems that the regional banks [[KRE]] are also back on thier horses.  You know I love BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] as a long term hold, but don’t be afraid to grab a little Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] here as these “Ohio chancres” will someday soon be able to cover up their cold sores and sashay out into the bank M&A saloons once again, all a-flooze.

Last, don’t forget about Elite Eight  pick Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] which is still getting its wind back (thankfully, so is SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] ) and it’s sister Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] , which has really been gaining some nice ground recently.   I like both as hedges against future “Inflato-rama Drama.”

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbYGRflMgKQ 450 300] 

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Yeah, so I’m the last iBC blogger left in the iBC March Madness Tourney.   It only took me a couple of years of playing, and losing early to realize that a measured, trending, relatively predictable pick beat out a burning comet every time.  In the end, like in life, it’s all about the beta.  Hence Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] , a boring, yet utterly predictably fantastic stock that I’ve owned since the low fitties:

Are you kidding me?  It looks faked doesn’t it?

Now look at this week’s rival, SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] on the weekly chart.   Also impressive…

Very impressive, but I think ready for a pullback.  In fact, I think both names are ready for a pullback this week and our competition’s result will depend upon which of the two pulls back  least.   I think the dailies give us a hint on this one.  First,  SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] —

Note the relative fragility of the daily, with all those gaps and the overstetched nature of the recent upmove? 

Our friend [[CREE]] is experiencing a similar overstretched period here (over it’s 200 day EMA especially), but I think the chart is a lot more “tight” and predictable.  As a result, I think the pullback will be less severe:

Long story short on my take:  the tightly wound anal retentives at Cree should squeeze one past the loose-bowelled chip-eaters at Sandisk this week. 

Let the shit talking begin.  (Oh, that’s right, it ‘s already begun…)

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Special Update:  My Lou’ville Cardinal Birds are set up as a #9 seed in the East, to play against a soft Cal Bear team (read “Bezerkely hippies”) and then notched to play weak ass #1 seed Puke, er, “Duke.”  

Let me say that knocking off Syracuse for the last Freedom Hall game ever was intense and pleasurable, but knocking Duke off it’s ill-gotten #1 seed perch would be a decade-maker.  Fellow Duke-haters, please pray for the health of senior guard Jerry Smith.  Thank you in advance.

A preview of how good the Cards can be (the first 1:10 is ALL Jerry Smith, last part is all Kyle Kuric). Enjoy.:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zevk8jgf9gA 450 300]

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