In the meantime, ANV is hitting it’s 200 week EMA and it looks primed for a bounce to at least $30, as do many in the precious sector. Oversold like a mothahfathah. Also, the Russell’s (2k and 3k, in fact, all except Smith) look good here and so do the Trannies (UPS!), but I do not trust the NAZTY NAZ, nor the BKX. Stay away from tech and financials, at least until there’s clarity.
I can finally utter a sigh of relief as I settle into a relaxing half week or so of sun and stupor on the Treasure Coast. Tomorrow, I sunbathe and wrangle with bull sharks in aquamarine waters!
HA! Just kidding, actually I’ve got two conference calls tomorrow morning and then another 8-12 noon job on Thursday. Then when I get back Sunday evening, I can pack my bags for all this scheiss to start all over again, this time not in the Orange Grove State, or with any mai-tais to accommodate.
Listen pals, I know I’ve begged your mercy before, but this time I think I might be straining your good will to it’s failing point. Listen, I know something’s wrong when my only knowledge of the public markets is via reading my e-mail blasts from Chess, RC and Jeremy (The PPT ratings). I get all kinds of garbage through all manner of metric, but those three have been my anchor these last weeks. Meanwhile, I’ve done very little in my own portfolio — perhaps out of stubbornness, but perhaps also because I believe that the miners are so beaten down in relation to the price of gold and silver that I think this may be the best buying opportunity I’ve witnessed since the March 2009 recovery.
Yes, you heard that right. Every metric I look at shows vast undervaluation of the precious miners. If you never touched these things, now is the time my friend. I am even thinking of looking at the options market here. Today’s divergence in the PM’s versus the overall down market may have finally revealed the truth about the liquidity that cannot be denied in these names.
And somehow, it all makes bizarre sense. Listen — we just had a deal go out that had more bids on it than anything I’ve ever been associated with in my career, and yes, that includes my time in the white shoe world of the Fortune 500-exclusive IB’s of Neuva York. It’s a shark frenzy out there in the private markets ladies and germs… those dudes have capital– shitte tonnes of it – and they want to spend. You think its twin in the public market is really going to puke it all down here? Good luck, pal.
BAA, you sick fuggers. BAA. Then RGLD, SLW and UPS, and MON. At least that.
Wish me luck, and if you cannot stomach that, then wish me survival.
Gold’s not been so hot, here, but I’m patient, and I’ll wait for it to break out of this oversold condition much like I’ve done many times in the past. There’s been little conditional change in the broader underpinnings of this PM market. We still have massive liquidity demand – if only for bandaging purposes on European and American debt problems. We still have too much of our economy being crowded out by government creep (and creeps). And earl and ag inflation, despite the recent sell-offs, are a constant threat.
I am therefore comfortable holding my horde whilst exploring other alternatives that have been solid for me for years. Among those, you know of UPS and MON, which I’ve spoken of many times. I still like those for the very long term. There are a couple of other names, however, that I have talked about much recently.
These are stocks that I would categorize as ”hold forever,” as long as they continue to carry and groom their historically strong management teams. You just put these names away and expect the best. Then one day, they reward you, like Markel (MKL) did this week.
I would encourage you to study up on Markel, some would say they are “the next Berkshire Hathaway.” All I know is that these are very sharp guys on the insurance side… very workman-like and below the radar. The kind of stock I like to hold forever.
On the consumer products front, LANC (Lancaster Colony) — a name I’ve mentioned here beofre– is another gem that does nothing but grow wisely on your supermarket shelves. It looks real nice right here:
Last, for those of you who are jonesing for a gold pick, there is benighted AAU, which #6 asked me about on my last blog post. It’s looking oversold like the rest of the gold market, and it sure looks like it’s in opportune spot here resting on its 200 week EMA:
Patience will be rewarded, as it has been for a decade now.
I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again. Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand.
Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions? It’s certainly possible.
But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.
If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now – sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL.
I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.
God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.
I’ve never been abashed by my love for the Trannies, nor my love for Charles Dow, who employed them to great effect in his famous theory. Some of us were dismayed to the see the Trannies pulling back while the rest of the market soared. My contention is the Trannies were just leading, and took their pause first.
Note this weekly Tranny chart which shows the sector sticking the landing on the 13-week EMA, and showing stochastic signs of a rebound:
Now check out the action on my favourite Tranny of them all… Ms. UPS!
And here’s the daily, which also says, “come to supper.”
I think we are about to take off again, overall market wise… but maybe not before our Transport lovelies have blazed the path. My best to you all.
The Secret To Taking Out the Patriots Next Sunday?
Teahouse ain’t gonna like it, but…. what’s a fellah gonna do when he finds a graphic like that out on Twitter?
But hey, let’s put these Superbowl squabbles aside for now and bask in the glow of some relatively overbought, but still promising markets. From yesterday, some of my bigs, including ANV, RGLD and AXU just did not want to give up their marches northward even with the brief spurt of the dollar and the commensurate minor shellacking of the precious metal commodity markets. Heck, even SLW, AG and EXK, my silver darlings, did not give up much today, despite precipitously overbought conditions.
That leaves us with a bit of a problem, however, as we don’t want to enter or even add to these great weekly stories until we get a bit more of a blowoff. This predicament is not wholly PM-restricted either, as I am hoping for the same pullback in my recently relentless “Stock of the Year” pick, UPS, and my Seventh Samurai servant, MON, as well.
Luckily, I have another Samurai that has been taking a bit of a rest lo these last three trading days, and coincidentally, it happens to be my best performer of the year. Yes ladies and gents, that odd post title did stand for something… the ubiquitous PBR, which hit exactly at that $32 resistance I mentioned when I first recc’ed it, and, like a good Brasilian trophy wife, has sold back in the most delicate manor. Note how the 20-day has now met the 200-day EMA in this nascent recovery of 2012?
I think we may have one, and perhaps two more days of consolidation left in this girl from Ipanema, and I’m hoping for an additional pickup in the $29.25 area, perhaps tomorrow sometime. I think earl is already starting to take up it’s part in the “liquidity wheel” along with gold and silver. This darling will continue to benefit, as will we all.