Blackbird Down
A Song for the Times?
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Well, so much for Helicopter Ben’s New York Times- abetted “tightening” kabuki theater act.
Did you enjoy it? I hear he’s been studying at the New School.
I dunno, maybe the guys down at Goldman called Bernanke up last night and asked him for some help in getting out of their Euro shorts, since DXY (sorry, no quote yet — see? [[DXY]] ) had run up to about $80.30 today by lunch time, only to tuck tail and (Black?) swan dive right back down to $80 flat just in time for Benjamin’s Jawboning routine at 2:15 pm.
That particular bit of mummery and prestidigitation must’ve in turn convinced at least one or two bag-holding kaftan merchants from Milwaukee to buy dollars again, because the dollar index got all the way to $80.10 by late afternoon, giving us all that familiar “blah” feeling at the close.
All pretense seems to have dropped away after the stock mavens went home, however, and the dollar is now (as of 12:36 am Eastern) trading back down to yesterday’s low’s at about $79.74, looking at a “next stop” of about $79.50, and then $79 even. Party on, Garth (and Darth… Vadon, that is).
These incipient moves should be enough to get our rally on in the gold and silver sector, not to mention our other hard currency equivalents including earl, natural gas, and the specialty metals. I was extremely busy today and I apologize, but my punishment was not being able to add much to the portfolio, although I would’ve loved to finish my Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] accumulation today. I am quite sure it will be more dear tomorrow.
I was able to add 60 more June $40 [[GDX]] calls at $5.80. They were a standing order, and I think I may have been able to get them even cheaper, but beggars, chooser, etc. etc. I now have total 120 of those $40 June strike calls, and I think I’m done there.
The rest of my exposure will remain in liquid equities, and I hope to add to positions tomorrow in the usual suspects, and perhaps some NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] . I also like Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] ‘s relative strength as of late.
For silver I may dip my toe in the Chanci selection – [[SVM]] , as I’ve admired their price action recently. I may also look to grab some additional [[PAAS]] . If [[CDE]] stalls in the early trade, I may also add to that one.
Platinum is reviving tonight along with its brethren, so don’t forget about [[PTM]] and [[PAL]] .
On the non-precious side, I may grab some [[ERX]] for a ride similar to that of [[AGQ]] . I also continue to like Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] and Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] . I also happen to think SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] is undervalued here, and it is a perennial favourite (sic) of The PPT .
Last, don’t forget Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] and Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] in the specialty metal names, and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , as their lithium is a bargain here as well. I expect tomorrow will be a good day for we merry shipmates of the U.S.S Jackson.
All aboard!
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63 Responses to Blackbird Down
I read the fly a lot. Loved your discription of me as johnny reb. Born up north, lived all my life in texas. Johnny reb i am. If you could see me smiling!!
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You are well ahead of the rest of us, suh!
I have a feeling we’ll all be moving to Texas soon enough.
The sane ones, at least.
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Could be at $79.50 by tomorrow morning.
Glory.
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We are in lock-step agreement. Prepare for a precipitous end to civilization.
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I’ll bring the eight balls.
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Sorry, I don’t do cocaine.
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What is this “cocaine” you speak of?
I was referring to the bocce court I’ve had installed below-decks.
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Do you just go “Agassi” when play bocce below-decks on the USS Jackson? You are quite the Rebel XL.
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You know that Agassi is Iranian, not Eyetaliano, yes?
So unless you were referring to my flowing mullet, I would have to say “no.”
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Ha, neither. I was referring to crystal meth. He partakes.
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Ah. Have not read the book yet. Heard it was better than your “average jock ghost written bio.”
He seems like an intelligent guy.
That said, I don’t meet many dumb Iranians, here in the States at least.
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It’s a good book! Also, Agassi Sr. was an Armenian who grew up
in Iran.
Never met a dumb Armenian.
Ever.
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This little thread speaks volumes about both of you.
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Indeed, I was certain Jake was talking about coke until I read down
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As you are from Vancouver, I cannot hold you responsible.
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You have quite a lot of theta premium on those calls at about .60 per month but oddly the IV is a 9 month average. Watch them.
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Treu, I usually sell those calls, because of all that premium. But, this is a special situation, where I think we will be rapidly moving up for a short period. I’d like to take advantage of that.
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just please, before civilization ends I really need to see someone punch Mark Haines in his fat stomach.
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Oh, I’ve no doubt that, well before his summary street execution, Mark Haines will have his arms restrained by two old ladies whilst a third proceeds to go all speedbag on his big hanging gut.
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TLT looks ready to cut the cheese. I’ll have jinxed it by calling attn to it now, of course.
(I know you’d like to spend ‘Seven Years in TiBeT’, but I like to trade the meekly mild action on this sure thing in the meantime)
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Interesting… dollar up, but TLT down, and (of course) TBT up, and gold and silver holding tough.
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At least you mentioned natural gas, its gold here in the south. Its what heats homes on cold days, like today.
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Soon the whole country will be on natural gas. It only makes sense, given the abundance.
My mother just had her earl boiner yanked and switched to gas heat. She’s in Noo Yawk, so it’s coming up there for sure.
No way heating oil is going to be affordable going forward, especially with sub $5 natty gas.
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I love all of your silver names except CDE. Management sucks. Endless diluion including a few days ago.
I prefer SSRI.
Your thoughts?
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Agreud on the shittiness of CDE management, and have remarked upon it here many a time.
Bot CDE off the floor in the $10 range last year (after split) with a first fib in the low $40 range. Just a return to the mean idea, is all (it got to about $25 in December, I think it gets to that $40, all said and done).
HL is a similar piece o’ trash, with crap management, that tends to move when the PM’s move.
SSRI is a dog, trading or otherwise. It’s still on my Jackson list, but I hardly ever talk about it, and own very little.
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Back above 80 again. USD index just hit 80.13.
The employment numbers apparently were good.
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I must admit I’m perplexed, ovah heah.
Precious metals doing just fine, even though the dollar is trading at $8.33 right now.
I mean… I thought I was joking about Goldman getting out of its short euro position, but maybeee…..
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SSRI has indeud (sic) been a dog of late. Some of this is attributable to the ceo’s unexplained and sudden resignation which no one can explain.
Nonetheless, it was once a champ — rode from 4 to 44 throughout this decade, whilst CDE did little more than a 10-for-1 reverse split… in a bull market. Quite a feat.
I wouldnt mind trading SSRI for Fresnillo, but the mexican fucker has no US listing or ADR.
Astonishing how badly these companies are managed. When this is all over, years from now, they will make world-class short candidates.
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If they are not bought out first…. that’s what I’m looking for on most of these junior-ish plays.
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Meanwhile, in the well run silver world, there’s SLW:
…Silver Wheaton will pay Augusta $230 million in cash installments under the deal. Augusta expects to receive key operating permits for the project in the fourth quarter. Rosemont is expected to be “low-cost, long-life and large-scale,” according to Silver Wheaton, which believes that Rosemont could increase the amount of silver it produces by about 2.4 million ounces a year from a long-term view. Gold production should increase by about 15,000 ounces.
Silver Wheaton stock has risen 4.0% to $14.95 in Thursday afternoon trading, while Augusta has surged 16.2% to $2.51. Other silver stocks are also trading higher in the late morning session.
Pan American Silver(PAAS Quote) is up 3.3% at $22.20 and Silver Standard Resources(SSRI Quote) is up 1.5% at $18.20.
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Fresnillo is partners in a huge silver find with MVG
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-Bull-Sprott-Makes-Lofty-indie-2783657833.html?x=0&.v=1
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Hmmm… that MVG moly gold discovery is interesting….
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a little sweetener ….
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Sorry, wrong link though a good read ….
The Company’s primary asset is a 44% holding in Minera Juanicipio S.A. de C.V. (“Minera Juanicipio”) which in turn holds and operates the Juanicipio property located in the Fresnillo District, Zacatecas State, Mexico. The remaining 56% of Minera Juanicipio is owned by Fresnillo plc (“Fresnillo”), a U.K. domiciled subsidiary company listed on the London Stock Exchange.
MAG and its partner Fresnillo plc are delineating a significant new silver vein discovery on the Juanicipio property in Zacatecas State, Mexico. The total contained metals at the Juanicipio property on a 100% project basis in the Indicated Resource are 83 million ounces of silver, 210,000 ounces of gold and 155 million pounds of lead and 269 million pounds of zinc. The Inferred Resources contain an additional 106 million ounces of silver, 356,000 ounces of gold and 301 million pounds of lead and 498 million pounds of zinc. MAG has also identified a silver, lead and zinc discovery at its 100% owned Cinco de Mayo property as well as a Moly-Gold discovery on the same property.
MVG’s private appraisal from 3/09′ report to shareholders re Joint Venture: [This is more than Fresnillo has reported and indicated above - TBD???]
The new 2009 Independent Resource Estimate confirms Valdecanas (including the Hanging Wall Vein) as a world class deposit with an Indicated Resource of 3.88 million tonnes of 972 grams per tonne (g/t) (28.1 ounces per ton) silver, 2.05 g/t gold, 2.10% lead and 3.76% zinc. There is an additional Inferred Resource (Valdecanas, Footwall Veins and the Stockwork Zone) of 8.24 million tonnes of 549 grams g/t (15.9 ounces per ton) silver, 1.44 g/t gold, 1.87% lead and 2.94% zinc.
The total contained metals in the Indicated Resource are 121 million ounces of silver, 255,000 ounces of gold and 180 million pounds of lead and 321 million pounds of zinc. The Inferred Resources contain an additional 145 million ounces of silver, 381,000 ounces of gold and 339 million pounds of lead and 534 million pounds of zinc.
MAG’s 44% share of the silver contained in the Indicated Resource category is 53 million ounces of silver plus 64 million ounces of silver in the Inferred Resource category.
They also have another 100% owned property (Cinco de Mayo) with is a gold/moly prospect.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MAG-Silver-Extends-iw-234698154.html?x=0&.v=1
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Here’s my risk factors — minority stakes in major properties, and 2) Mexican location.
Admittedly, less nationalization risk than say, Bolivia or Venezeula, but still the risk is there.
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MAG does look really good. I need to find some more money, because I think I am going to get them, too.
They probably will get taken out. Fresnillo/Newmont was in that bidding war with Goldcorp over Canplats, and Goldcorp got her. So Fresnill/Newmont are still in need.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=94992&sn=Detail
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Oh, looks like Fresnillo had made an offer and then withdrew it. Couldn’t price it? I’m not sure what this means.
Fresnillo Plc Withdraws Its Proposal To Make Offer For MAG Silver Corp.
Monday, 22 Jun 2009 02:00am EDT
Fresnillo Plc announced that after more than six months since announcing, on December 1, 2008, its intention to make an offer for 100% of MAG Silver Corp.’s (MAG) shares not owned by Fresnillo plc or its affiliates, Fresnillo has announced its decision to withdraw such intended offer to be made through Fresbal Investment Ltd (Fresbal) as it is no longer in the best interests of Fresnillo shareholders. Fresnillo’s decision reflects the fact that even after this protracted period of time, it has not been possible to conclude the independent valuation of MAG required under applicable Canadian securities laws in order to permit the offer to proceed and it is not clear to Fresnillo when or if this will happen.
Here’s a different perspective – (at any rate, it’s going to get very interesting with all the juniors)
“MAG Silver is a pretty simple story. We continue to hold MAG because it is significantly undervalued based on its 44% ownership of the Juanicipio silver property in Mexico. Eventually I anticipate this value will be realized.
As the discovery-to-mine curve indicates, MAG Silver is near the upper end of the development curve—there is every reason to believe it will go into production eventually. The difficulty in realizing this value (as covered many times before) is that their 56% partner Fresnillo PLC is the 800-pound Mexican gorilla that controls development. Fresnillo attempted a hostile takeover last year at ~US$4.65, but was thwarted by MAG. Despite the obvious quality of the Juanicipio asset, no other takeover offers have come in, so we await Fresnillo’s next move.”
– Exploration Insights (02/07/10)
That is a problem with which I am very familiar.
You never want to make a large illiquid minority investment, no matter how attractive the opportunity.
In the world of valuation, lack of a control investment is a huge value discount.
And for good reason.
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True but what’s to stop MVG from selling out at a nice profit to another major willing to deal with the Mexican/British Gorilla?
If not, MVG continues to develop the prospect with Fresnillo or Fresnillo takes them out at an agreed price once the true valuation is negotiated with the court’s blessing. In the meantime MVG continues to find other prospects adding more value to the company.
Two catalysts – Added reserves in a rising PM marketplace and potential takeover at a premium … worth the risk as long as it’s just one egg in the basket
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True but what’s to stop MVG from selling out at a nice profit to another major willing to deal with the Mexican/British Gorilla?
Nothing, but the aforementioned discount to premium value (ie, if you sold a control stake) would still apply.
What I’m saying is that it’s fairly valued right now, so if you are betting on a takeout, that’s a separate expectation.
But since the POS and POG should continue to rise, I’m not saying this is a terrible expectation, nor a bad investment… only that there are risks involved that are not present in the N. American companies.
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Fresnillo already tried a take under and failed … a rights plan has been initiated to protect shareholders and a ruling is due someday regarding fair valuation from a ruling body (though it may be Canuckian) in an attempted takeover.
Rather be in Mexico than China, Argentina, Turkey, etc.
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Sure, but it’s all relative.
I’d rather be in the US, Australia, or Canada — ie, “rule of law” countries where the risk of nationalization is largely non-existent.
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Off to watch the rest of this U of L – St. John’s game.
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4:06PM Silver Standard announces public offering of common shares (SSRI) 18.30 +0.32 : Co announces it has filed a preliminary prospectus supplement to its amended and restated short form base shelf prospectus with the securities commissions in each of the provinces of Canada, other than Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, and has made a similar filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with a public offering of its common shares to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$100 million
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Yeah, we had a bitch session about this on the PPT today after market close.
Told you that SSRI was a bitch!
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thats because they are waiting for it. By “they” I mean “crazy robots.”
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Something’s crazy all right. DXY now at $80.50 (again!) and gold and silver (the commodities, not the ETF’s) are at HOD’s.
Head fake!
Bullscheiss!
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Big auction of 30 yr. treasuries today.
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That explains TLT’s weakness, I guess.
Heck, I didn’t even know they were back printing the 30 year bonds…
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Gold up $11.00 (1.0%)
Silver up 8 cent (0.5%)
DXY “diver down” off the highs of $80.50… currently $80.29.
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GRS ripping ahead
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I wish there were a way to examine people’s avatars up close(r).
Is that Paul Newman as a young man, with boxing gloves?
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Good eye…puttin’ a point up on the board for the kid.
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Hmmm… now you’ve got be wondering if your nom de plume is a commentary on his “The Hustler” sequel.
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Back in the SLV today.
I’m holding my NGAS (25%) long term ….got my scrotum kicked in on UNG last year.
Elizabeth Warren tells CNBC that 1/2 the CRE loans are underwater….Becky kind of laughs at her like she some kind of frigid party pooper….or R.Paul wacko
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Only half?
I don’t know why you’d bother with SLV. The action will be in the miners, so you might as well grab a basket and pluck yourself some SLW, EXK, CDE, SVM and PAAS truffles.
Throw ‘em in there, throw your pic-i-nic blanket over them and forget ‘em til the summer.
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Agree or disagree with him, Ron Paul is arguably the most principled man in politics. I’m curious as to why some anonymous internet Mr Bill calls him a wacko?
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Who is doing that? Timmah?
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mckcbill above
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Not sure Mr. KC was disparaging Mr. Paul himself. I would say he’s accurately describing the way he’s portrayed in the media.
Perhaps I am giving him the benefit of the doubt?
I would prefer if we all did that a little more around here.
Myself included.
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Thank you Jake you are correct. I guess I didn’t proof read how that came out. I’m a big fan of Ron Paul….I imagine if that election was held today he would have to be taken serious by the media.
Also have SLW …EXK…. complete disciple…going for my blackbelt
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Silver at $15.72… you may get it tomorrow, Daniel-san!
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Wow, what an awesome day
DXY over 80 too – some fuckery no doubt where I have to give it all back tomorrow
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