Really, I’m spoiling you. It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention. A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!). Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.
Take PZG as an example. I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now. Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:
Now check out the daily. See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day? That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?
Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line. If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all. You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak. AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point. Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.
I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts.
I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.” I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.
I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me. If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it. It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it. Really, I mean it. Just shut up now.
And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.
And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.
And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer. I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.
One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF. Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year. One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.
Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks. This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions. Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again?
Too big to fail, you say? Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around. Be warned, friends, storms approach.
Today was a significant day for the silver miners. With the death of Prince Otto, the word was sent by carrier pigeon to Mr. Bilderberg and the Illuminati that they could once again indulge in the precious metal trade. Obviously they took that word to heart, especially in the silver section, with the more sedate Jacksonians like SLW and PAAS up 6.26% and 3.20% respectively, and the silver miner ETF– ticker symbol SIL– up 4.29%.
Even more stunning were the pocket rockets. Of course the double raw silver ETF, AGQ, was up almost 10%, but some of the small miners did even better. My second largest silver holding EXK, was up almost 12%, while AG and MVG were both up over 8% each. Even ANV, the mercurial Jacksonian gold stock, got in the groove, with a move of over 6.72%.
Even more promising was the chart damage today’s moves did on the silver bears. AG is the cleanest example:
EXK had a similar breakout today:
I love how these rockets are leading us up like they usually do. I am not, however “all in,” yet, as the $HUI continues to bedevil me by refusing to resolve itself. The 50-day still remains a micro-hair above the 200-day EMA and they are flattening to a needle point.
My one consolation is that we’ve finally closed above both key EMA’s at $528.42. That’s noteworthy, since we haven’t been above either one since early June. Stay tuned tomorrow for some follow through. I may even expend some cash. I’m looking at EGO and CDE to continue moving higher tomorrow and to the end of the week. My top pick for tomorrow, however, is GPL.
Flying around the Central Mitten today via large American Sedan, one cannot help but be astounded by the plethora of funnel clouds in so many seemingly peaceful rural burgs these days. If Mother Nature cannot leave lie a town known for 361 days of Christmas (despite its Mary Shelley-esque name) and not one but two Wiener Schnitzel Emporiums, then I just don’t know what the world is coming to. I tell you, if this road trip gets any more adventuresome, it may take me four days to hitch hike from Saginaw all the way home.
Things were no less tornadic in the precious metal miners markets today, with that rally off support finally coming through for us:
Even more mucho blasto than Baby $HUI, however, were my faithful Jacksonians, with SLW, EXK, ANV, PAAS, SSRI, EGO and even TCK up anywhere from 5% to 9% today.
And not to be overly boastful, but I thought it quite shiny that my final call of yesterday’s post — that laggard AG would catch up to it’s brethren in rapid fashion — came through like a dolorous Dakota Fanning in a crying scene, to the tune of almost 11% in cash gains. Note the chart, and the accompanying caveat:
Note well my easily excitable Adderall dependents — one strong day does not a rally make. As you can see above, many many of our Jacksonians are banging their heads on 20 and 50-day EMA’s. I would not be surprised at all, therefore, to see a pullback from these levels, and perhaps one all the way back to the 500 level on the Baby $HUI.
Most likely we’ll see the most trouble at the old breakout line on the $HUI — at $519 give or take a smidge. Be aware of your levels and do not get caught flat-footed. In the meantime, silver still looks like the recovery drug, although traditionally hot money gold plays like ANV (up 8.83% today) are coming in close behind.
What happened in the markets today? Are you kidding me? What do you think? Let’s not quibble about what is what.
We know what.
But today I have something different. A piece from a brilliant work of historical fiction I’ve been reading whilst on vacation. The book is called Glory in the Nameby James Nelson. It’s about the Confederate Navy in the Civil War and I recommend it highly. Anyway, the one part I’d like to recreate here (with the indulgence of the author) is a description of the “model Southern Gentleman” circa 1861, just as the shells were lobbed at Fort Sumter.
The words are from a patrician gentleman from Charleston, SC, who was educated at the U.S. Naval Academy, but who saw his duty with the Southern Cause in the final decision to attack Fort Sumter, in his city’s harbor. In his own words, a Southern Gentleman speaks of his hometown:
It was where Samuel had learned to be a gentleman, and more to the point, a Southern gentleman. Courteous to the last. Studied, urbane. Personally disciplined — a gentleman, he was taught, did not show womanly weakness of any sort. Passionately loyal to his country and his state. Unwilling to suffer even the hint of insult. Tolerant of the lower classes, appreciative, even, of their labor, but always aware of their place, and his. Kind to slaves. These were the things that that made the Southern man, and the instruction was so thorough that those traits became a part of Samuel Bowater as much as his height and the color of his eyes.
Is that not the Monsieur? How long as the South been awaiting his steady presence, I ask you? Be thankful, small plebs, that he is kind to slaves.
Mein gott, I cannot say enough about how well we’ve done today. Let’s speak no more about it, as it may be seen as “bragging.”
The knock-out makes the fighter a star, but there’s a lot of steps leading up to the fatal punch, that money maker. It all starts with foot-work. Ali had the greatest footwork this side of Sugar Ray Robinson, and he defined footwork as a defensive weapon in the famous rope-a-dope strategy, that combined an amorphous passive-aggressive upper body roll with a sly shuffle-dance against the ropes that literally sucked the power from the brutish giant, George Foreman, on that signature humid night in Zaire.
I advocate a similar strategy to assist in absorbing the brutal retaliatory flurries that will inevitably arise from this tidal bull we presently enjoy. Roll with the punches. Bleed some shares if you must — 10%, maybe even 20%. I would not go beyond 30% at this juncture, however. Keeping cash on hand is one thing, keeping too much of the nasty stuff and missing the rocket launch that is coming is another.
I hope this post will be timely, if in fact today’s hesitation leads to something more stomach churning. Most important is that you do not lose your focus while the roller coaster whips you about.
In the end, you must ask yourself the rational question: Has any single component or fact set changed in the paper money destruction thesis? If not, you must carry on to the predictable end.
Hint — We’re not there yet.
EXK, SLW, PAAS, MVG on silver. IAG and ANV and RGLD on gold. AAU and NGD and PGZ are for your higher risk plays. All of these on the expected dips in the next few days.