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I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts. 

I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.”   I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.  

I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me.  If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it.   It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it.   Really, I mean it.  Just shut up now.

And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.

And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.

And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer.   I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.

One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF.  Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year.  One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.  

Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks.  This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions.  Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again? 

Too big to fail, you say?   Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around.  Be warned, friends, storms approach.

Peace be upon you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm6PGh2fvTg 450 300]

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Listen to me very quietly and carefully — You need to be on your toes at all time and keep a cool head like Jimmy Dean in a meat locker because half of what’s going on is designed to scare you into a blue paralysis that will render you immobile, and thus, malleable.

The market thinks you’re putty, see?  That’s why we’ve got guys begging off, folding their tent, going to cash, putting that roll in a coffee can and burying it on the back 40, right next to the bomb shelter packed with MRE’s.  They say “no mas!”

I say “oversold.”   I say that some of the wilier tells in the mining industry — like ANV and CDE, NG, MVG, BRD, and yes, even beaten down old XRA all jumped ahead 3.5 to 6.5% today.   What’s more, they all stayed up even after the selloff in the precious metals themselves (gold and silver) later in the day.

This is my signal to hold fast and watch the market closely.   I still think this debt deal quails the dollar, either by lack of confidence in the foreign markets or by dint of Bernanke printing press (Jackson Hole Conference right around the corner).

So I’ll continue to bide my time here, beer and NUGT‘s  in hand, and wait and see what spooky stories the market brings us tomorrow…

All the best to you, my fearless ones.

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It seems Mother Market has decided to “take the piss” as they say in the jolly old UK, on my beleaguered soul today.   She drove the dollar up and the Amex Gold Bugs $HUI Index down to recent sub-optimal climes, while rifling my pockets for spare cigs and change for the jukebox.

I continue to call bullshit on she and her precious dollar, however, despite her mischievous manichean attempts to subdue me.    Because the dollar rolled today, only to see gold and to some extent, silver, remain unchanged.   I believe the reason the move was not taken altogether seriously is the amoung of overhead resistance the dollar will be limping into as early as tomorrow.   Note the base line “hold” (#1) and the three resistance lines (#’s 2, 3 & 4) fast approaching for the buck:

As a result of my decision to flail the dollar with a whipe of intertwined balogna skins today, I began adding more silver and gold miners this afternoon.  I did not add more AGQ, as I’d rather buy that on an uptrend, and escape its inherent volatility in an unsure market.   I did add, SLW, EXK, SSRI on the silver side, and NG, NGD, and AAU on the gold side.   Nothing extravagant,yet, mind you.   I’m  just pacing my way back into the game so I can blow cigar smoke at my nearest opponents’ wives.

SLW gives me comfort here, as far as today’s headfake.  Can you tell me why?

SLW is a must have in the port, ladies and gentlemen.  A must have.

Thanks again for all your kindness today, and I bid you adieu for now.

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The M&A boom in the precious metal sector that I’ve long predicted on these page has finally begun to blossom.   [[LIHR]] supernova’d today on news of it’s rejection of egregious sexual advances from the Newmont Mining Corporation [[NEM]] and other encroaching crepuscular old men.

This will be only the beginning, as I have mentioned to you.   Large, shambling behemoths like Newmont Mining Corporation [[NEM]] , Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) [[ABX]] and even the nimbler Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] will be hungrily seeking  small and medium sized asset-laden precious metal players like voracious toothed pelicans pursuing hapless baby ducks.  Smack! Smack! Deeeelicious!

  I expect that eventually, even the big general metal miners like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] and BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) [[BHP]] will get into the act, diluting themselves for my greater enrichment.  What’s up today as a result?  Better to ask what isn’t, but you can infer that the names with the greatest returns on an M&A day like today are very likely going to correlate with the names of other possible acquirees… among them:

Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] , [[CDE]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ,  almost all the components of [[GDX]] and [[GDXJ]] ; silvers Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] and [[MVG]] (congrats to Employee8/Teahouse on this last one), and the two of  “the three N’s:”  NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] and New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] . 

Also,  the silver cabelleros [[PAAS]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and [[SVM]] are all hot (and even stodgy [[SLV]] and his steroidal brother [[AGQ]] ), and let’s not forget platinum friends [[PAL]] and Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] .  Last, let’s not forget “X” factor, recently unspun Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] .

Untroubled by today’s rush are eight PM underperformers which may only be laggards to today’s action, and therefore bear watching: Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , [[EXK]] , Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] , Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] ,  Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] .   You know that last is one of my all time buy and hold plays, so watch it especially here.

For my part, I will continue to ride the invisible neon flow of the Matrix, to the envy of my friends and the chagrin of my enemies.  I wish I could tell you all the momentous things which currently abrade my precious thread of cohesion with you all, but it would just as likely cast you into the pit of despair as lift your spirits to the heavens. 

Tomorrow is a day of Remembrance for me, and a day of quiet for the Markets.   I will try to stop in to share cause and cost with you, but if we not speak, may you all be well, and good to one another.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfINBYmGD1A 450 300]

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I don’t often talk about the University of Kentucky on this site, being a “mostly” Louisville Cardinals fan (and they don’t like it much around here when you’re “both.”  You might as like to try to “borry” from a man’s still instead).   However, UK freshman, SEC “Player of the Year,” “Newcomer of the Year,” and quite possibly #1 NBA draft pick John Wall makes for a nice metaphor for today’s dollar discussion.

Wall, while deified in the Blue Grass for his eye-popping offensive talents, is going to be the number one (or #2, his teammate DeMarcus Cousins may go #1) draft pick because of his defensive capabilities, which are sometimes similarly eye-popping.   It’s arguable, for instance, that he beat Vanderbilt at Vanderbilt all by himself with a last second shot block on a dead-eye three-point shooter, followed by a clean pick of the ball right from said startled shooter’s hands.  

What’s that?  Of course Youtube has the clip!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZzXhhd6CRA 450 300]

Pretty spiffy, no?   You don’t see that kind of instinctive defensive thinking in a lot of freshman.

And that kind of defensive, er… “wall” brings to mind our old weekly dollar chart and the “fib wall” we’d identified as going to be a tough area to breach.   It turns out, the 200-week exponential moving average (“EMA”) served as a barrier as well.   Look at the slow topping we’ve seen here, keeping in mind this is a weekly chart:

I think this bodes well, at least in the near term, for our commodities “risk trade,” and especially the precious metals, which are perking up quite nicely this morning as the dollar (DXY) drops below $80.00.    [[AGQ]] is taking all it’s friends out for a champagne party, and purchasing them Norma Kamali handbags.   Fellow silvers [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] and even rag-tag Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] are also again off to the races.  As always, the best name in silver is Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .  On the gold side, you know my favourites (sic) but NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] is really picking up steam as it matures here.

Keep an eye as well on our dollar proxy [[UUP]] , which we’d like to see stay below $23.60 for our shiny metal dominance to continue.

On top of our usual metal trades, it seems that the regional banks [[KRE]] are also back on thier horses.  You know I love BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] as a long term hold, but don’t be afraid to grab a little Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] here as these “Ohio chancres” will someday soon be able to cover up their cold sores and sashay out into the bank M&A saloons once again, all a-flooze.

Last, don’t forget about Elite Eight  pick Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] which is still getting its wind back (thankfully, so is SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] ) and it’s sister Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] , which has really been gaining some nice ground recently.   I like both as hedges against future “Inflato-rama Drama.”

My best to you all.

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Avast Ye Steam-punk Scalawags!
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Looks like the bewigged and wedge-shoed scarlet coats of the Federal Admiralty have thrown down their first frilly gauntlet and taken a shot across our portside bow last evening with a cannon-load of “hot grape” called “quarter point discount rate increase,” in the less civilized quarters of New Orleans and other pirate dens.

Powdered pooftahs that they are, they are already begging our mercy come the morn as we swing our starboard cannon about to rake their pommy sides amid-ships.    Too late for them, and theirs, I’m afraid, as there’s gold in those Admiralty cargo holds and we mean to have it.

Let’s not get all a-sweat and a-lathered, me scurvy dogs.   The thesis has not changed and certainly the Fed is not going to take the “brave man’s step” of setting the Caribbean afire with rum-soaked English scrip whilst our Parliament (of Whores) continues to spend like grog-stupefied wainwrights on barrel-selling day.    No, maties, they seek to confound us with this Mary-move of callow authority.   No man can call his actions bold while pleading apology in the next breath!  

If anything, said grape-shot toss was mere subtrafuge to cover for additional scrip production in yonder Admiralty’s subterranean printing gaols!  What will occupy the Admiralty’s cargo holds for years — baser and baser scrip — will be what ensures our golden Treasures worth! 

So be not a-feared but rather emboldened by the tightness of Rear Admiral Bernanke’s wedgies, and the sagging of his pompadour.  Now is the time to press the hot cutlass to their throats and let roar with musket, grape and cannon.   The battle is near-won, me swabbies.   Let us not then quail at the size of the Admiralty’s frigates, but rather laugh at their frailty — they are made of paper, lads!

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This day I shall be indulging in all me favourites, but  most especially those in the silver Escudo doubloons, for the price of bonnie silver is racing back up even faster than that of gold.    To that end I shall be indulging in me favourite miners, Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[SVM]] , [[PAAS]] and maybe even the worm-bitten dogs [[CDE]] and Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .   [[AGQ]] is only for the traders, but it may boom off of any pullback here.

Don’t forget me favourite golds either, which number three — Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] .   Some dogs that may be opportunities thanks to yesterday’s scare off  could be New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , along with Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] and even [[BAA]] .  Of course [[GDX]] is a great purchase if you want a catch all.

I also think the Ag side will continue to stay hot, so any weakness in Monsanto Company [[MON]] , The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , and Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] should be seen as an opportunity.  I will likely have more to say on this front.   

Many of you may have seen I chose Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] as my March Madness pick (SLW is too volatile).   I like it and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] as my two hottest tech names for the intermediate to long term (the only way I play).  

Best to you all, my hearties, and if anything today — WATCH SILVER — something seems to be “up.”

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