As for today, it seems the U.S. dollar is doing it’s usual plungerooni below $79 again. When it breaks $79.60 with vigour (sic), please call me. Until then I will be eyes forward on all of my “X” play metal picks. Of particular interest are the siblings XRA and it’s offshoot XG (or is it the other way ’round? No matter). XRA is currenlty up 5.5% at $2.89, and XG is up over 3.6% at $6.26.
My other X-play is on the silver side — EXK, my old favorite, up 3.8% at $9.86 this day. For lotto type picks, I continue to recommend the accumulation of BAA and AAU, both also up today to varying degrees.
Last but not least, let’s not forget the rare earths. I know they are frustrating, but you will kick yourself if they take off without you. Besides MCP and REE (the more grandfatherly of the bunch), I continue to nibble on AVL and QRM. As always, remain cautious. Any rebound in the dollar will negate all this good stuff, and signal us to lighten our loads.
And One for Le Docteur Who’s Sprawled on Butter Biers down le Lane.
I’ve scanned the bulk of the stocks that I follow, and save for the ones that have been ruthless stolen by my fellow bloggers, I do believe that BAA-BAA Black Sheep presents the best opportunity for profit going forward.
Note what I’d remarked earlier about this stock’s flirtation with $5.00, and how, like EXK finally did, it would one day break that barrier for once and all?
Well I believe that time has come. Come, see the violence inherent in the system:
And here’s the daily, which also seems to indicate we are on solid ground, and probably will not rest for another quarter or so…
I also like AUY, XRA and EGO here as soon as tomorrow. Lots of stuff will be popping, however, so keep your eyes open along with your coin purse.
I started selling some of my QLD horde today, only to turn around and plow those winnings into more AG, SLW and EXK.
Why silver? Mostly because the happy silver mining family was bludgeoned like a prize veal on the night before the St. Anthony Festival these last few weeks, and I like the reversion to the mean theory — no matter how temporary that reversion might be.
You know I started accumulating the PM ETF’s, GDX, GDXJ and SIL last week in order to capture some of the rebound that I saw coming from that sector. Well this week I will concentrate more on individual names like the above in silver and RGLD, AUY and ANV in the gold mining sector. I might also dabble in those insane brothers XG and XRA.
Just to give you an example of what I’m seeing here, and why I think there’s still a lot of room in these PM names, here’s my markup of the EXK weekly.
Note howlast week the price bounced off the long term trend line only to leave that long tail in a hammer? And note also how most of the stochastics are headed north once again? I am seeing that in a lot of these names. Again, it can all change on a dime in no time, and believe me, I will be ahead of you, elbowing you in the chin as I run for the exits if it does. But right now, the dollar is on our side, and the momentum is coming back to these names.
Let’s have some fun while we wait for the deluge, shall we?
A funny thing happened whilst I was away from the office today (for the second day)... I got murdered. Usually when I’m out and about the market is pretty accommodating, like an Edwardian butler in white gloves and tails. He may give me a light workout, just enough to suffuse my brow with a light patina of salty perspiration, nothing more. Even then, he’s there to hand me my plush towel and smoking jacket at the bell.
But today I was accosted by a gang of wiry Cockney longshoremen in baggy jodhpurs and nail-soled leather jackboots. Reviewing my 50% position in gold stocks like ANV and silver stocks like — you name it, but SLW was down almost 15% today — they proceeded to bash me about the shoulder and ribs with brickbats and lengthy cords of hard salami. They said something about leaving my face “intact” so there’d be no questions at work tomorrow.
Nevertheless, I speak to you from traction after suffering a near 7% bullshit beating today (don’t believe me? Check out XRA’s action today, and GFYS!), and am lying here in my linament-soaked bandages, waiting for a bounce to get out of some of these damaged names, as per the plan of yesterday.
A bounce, you say? Jake, you addled fucker, you were thrown down one too many escalators today! How say you “bounce,” pray tell? Well, here’s clue # 1 on the $SILVER commodity chart. It’s been almost 15 months since we last hit the 200-day EMA, and yet we hit it today. The RSI is oversold egregiously as well:
As for the $HUI today… well, you know the sad sad end of that story. Like Brad Pitt’s relocated Northern Irish Provisional Army man, Frankie McGuire, said to Harrison Ford’s NYPD sergeant, Tom O’Meara in the 1997 IRA potboiler, The Devil’s Own –
“Don’t expect no hoppy endin’, Tom. It’s not an American story, it’s an Oirish one.”
Yes, and it appear’s our Baby $HUI ended up just as perforated as young Frankie did at the end of that movie. What’s more, it looks like there’s still some room to travel even closer to Hell:
But don’t cry for me, Argentinians. I am getting up and hitting back twice as hard, Chicago Politician-style. In fact, I swung a haymaker at a bunch of AGQ this afternoon a little too early, at $175 and got stopped out. I may grab some more on the open tomorrow though. Also, respecting The PPT and it’s historically oversold levels, I dumped out of half of my TZA hedge and loaded up on a very large dollop of TNA at the close. I may even add to that if we have a last blow off tomorrow morning.
Don’t let the Man get you down, folks. Let’s hang together, as we sure don’t want to hang separately.
Today was kind of interesting, no? False alarm breakouts all over, and almost none of them held…
Save for the PM miners of course. Sort of like a… a… PM Dawn, no? I took my cue off the Baby $HUI earlier today, as it had gracefully touched the bottom of it’s trading channel and then sprung up like a coked out stallion loose in the mare barn. True, it sold off some at the end of the day after that initial hop up.. but I still like the pin action. Note:
Despite the long wick in that last candle, I like how there’s still lots of room to run on the RSI and the other stochs. This puts me in the mind that we are seeing a genuine handle breakout here. On this action, I doubled up on my XRA and BAA positions, as noted in The PPT today, right before lunch. I also added to EXK, AG, GDXJ and SIL. I even bought some more RGLD, just to add to that pile.
Some other nice movers today that I own, but did not add too (much to my chagrin) included AXU, ANV, AUQ, AUY,GSS, NUGT, IAG, NXG, etc. Keep an eye on these for further developments tomorrow.
As I type, the dollar is below $77, Gold is well over $1,810 and silver is over $40, indicating the $HUI is steering us in the right direction. Enjoy tomorrow, as I will be “road-bound” again, and checking in from remote airport locations & scruffy hotel bar rooms.
I got rid of one half of my TZA today, because I think we are oversold, but will I dump my SKF in a similar manner?
I will not, as I believe lovely Skiffles is a longer term hold here. Check the monthly to see what I believe we have in store for us in the coming months:
I believe we may bounce around a bit here, and $BKX may even get all the way back to it’s twelve month moving average in the $45 range. More’s the better, I say, as I’m still not even 50% invested in Skiffles, and this is going to be the death trade going forward, by the hammers of Thor and the jockstrap of Odin.
As you can see from this chart, I think a return to the lows is all but inevitable. However, if you extrapolate the cascade in the similar fashion as the one that precipitated the 2009 lows… well, we’ve a ways to go.
Say it with me folks… extrapolate the cascade. Extrapolate the cascade….. EXTRAPOLATE THE CASCADE!
(Okay, don’t shout it that loud, or your wife/girlfriend/mother will think you are having difficulties with the KitchenAid dishwasher.)
I have not sold any more gold and silver… yet. As per my announcements in The PPT, I did add another large dollop of AUQ at the close along with a Godzilla-sized addition (temporary, to be sure) to my XRA holdings. I think there’s something going on there, although to be clear, I know not what. Love that late-day pennant though.