In the meantime, ANV is hitting it’s 200 week EMA and it looks primed for a bounce to at least $30, as do many in the precious sector. Oversold like a mothahfathah. Also, the Russell’s (2k and 3k, in fact, all except Smith) look good here and so do the Trannies (UPS!), but I do not trust the NAZTY NAZ, nor the BKX. Stay away from tech and financials, at least until there’s clarity.
_______________________ The dollar’s off 70 cents as I type this, down below $82 again to a low we haven’t seen since mine and the Fly’s birthday on the 25th of last month. That “chuffing” sound you hear is Ben Bernanke’s magical reverse vacuum blowing hundred dollar bills at Spain by way of behind the scenes European central bank bailout transfers. $125 billion you say? It’s a mere bag of shells when one can print up one’s own constantly deflating sovereign currency in a zirp atmosphere. Isn’t this fun? Why didn’t Japan think of this??
Anyone else getting the hard stuff while it’s cheap? Take a look at my two “T’s” — TKC and recently murdered TC for a flyer. Of course I still love BAA, but ANV is looking very tasty and has RGLD ever really disappointed you? On the silver side, it’s broken record time again… AG, EXK and SLW remain the nobles. PAAS for a flyer. For those with less time, GDXJ and SIL are the ETF plays for now.
I had one of the worst Friday’s in my career this past week, dealing with a very large dollar client issue that one would have to hear to believe. One thing I can say about my industry, there’s hardly ever a dull moment. You guys think trading stocks is a bitch? Try something more illiquid next time…
What’s that sound, you say? Those of you with extremely sensitive hearing probably heard a dog whistle this morning, after the absolutely execrable unemployment numbers came out. Given that the increase in unemployment, the lack of job growth and the near-frozen economic capability of our scared scat-less private sector leaves the Powers that Be with very little in the Hope and Change department, the only remaining response is a toot on the dog whistle.
And who’s that St. Bernard that’s come-a-trotting with a big barrel of printer’s ink secured beneath his hairy jowls? Why that’s St. Ben-ard Bernake! He knows that there’s no FacePlant Book rally coming to secure the 2012 elections and therefore his place on the Iron Throne of Westeros. So the only other plan to help us out here is to pump the press and let the liquidity flow. Heck, what are you going to do, anyway? Buy Euros??
No, but there’s always RGLD, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW, EXK, AG, ANV, IAG, and of course, BAA. Tons of other “beaten downs” as well that will make someone a lot of money, but as you know, my time here is limited.
It’s Oaks and Derby time in the Bluegrass, and the Jakester’s stocks are plungeroonying like so many suicidal swan divers off a Wall Street skyscraper. My response? I shrug and hold, as I know we are approaching a cycle low in the commodity sector, and gold and silver prices are hanging hard even as the stocks in the Gold Bug Index (Baby $HUI) continue to squeeze my upper heart ventricles like 45 years of excessive bacon. There’s a reason I feel that pressure and it’s because the gold and silver miners are woefully under-performing relative to their underlying commodities… at an almost historical level:
This chart has me hankering to add to my recent purchases, frankly. But in the interest of capital preservation, I am going to space out buys over the next couple of days. I am going to start with some AEM (I like the dividend), and then add to my SLW, EXK and yes, RGLD. Three year bargains in ANV, IAG, IVN and many others. Look around, shop carefully. Watch the rebound back to that 200 day EMA above. Interesting, no?
I am at the track with multiple clients tomorrow so I’ll have little time in between gambling like I know what I’m talking about and sipping juleps, but I will try to check in on you all with my fancy new phone, God willing.
The Secret To Taking Out the Patriots Next Sunday?
Teahouse ain’t gonna like it, but…. what’s a fellah gonna do when he finds a graphic like that out on Twitter?
But hey, let’s put these Superbowl squabbles aside for now and bask in the glow of some relatively overbought, but still promising markets. From yesterday, some of my bigs, including ANV, RGLD and AXU just did not want to give up their marches northward even with the brief spurt of the dollar and the commensurate minor shellacking of the precious metal commodity markets. Heck, even SLW, AG and EXK, my silver darlings, did not give up much today, despite precipitously overbought conditions.
That leaves us with a bit of a problem, however, as we don’t want to enter or even add to these great weekly stories until we get a bit more of a blowoff. This predicament is not wholly PM-restricted either, as I am hoping for the same pullback in my recently relentless “Stock of the Year” pick, UPS, and my Seventh Samurai servant, MON, as well.
Luckily, I have another Samurai that has been taking a bit of a rest lo these last three trading days, and coincidentally, it happens to be my best performer of the year. Yes ladies and gents, that odd post title did stand for something… the ubiquitous PBR, which hit exactly at that $32 resistance I mentioned when I first recc’ed it, and, like a good Brasilian trophy wife, has sold back in the most delicate manor. Note how the 20-day has now met the 200-day EMA in this nascent recovery of 2012?
I think we may have one, and perhaps two more days of consolidation left in this girl from Ipanema, and I’m hoping for an additional pickup in the $29.25 area, perhaps tomorrow sometime. I think earl is already starting to take up it’s part in the “liquidity wheel” along with gold and silver. This darling will continue to benefit, as will we all.
I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention. And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff. Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.
I believe this may be one of those times.
Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week. I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold. The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:
Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:
Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners. Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:
I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level. Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.
Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX. If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.
As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now. The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:
Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor. You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.
My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year. Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year. As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle. I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.
Enjoy, and partake, if you like. Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months. Make hay while that sun still shines.