iBankCoin
Home / Tag Archives: GLD

Tag Archives: GLD

Damned Rookie Mistake (Have a Nugget Anyway)

Nuggetear

_________________

Aw geez, I just had an extremely clever and full of info blog post to make up for my long absence.  In it, I went over the weather conundrum, my summer exploits, the state of our miserable economy as guided by the clown show in Washington, etc. etc.

But like a dumbass, when I went to insert my graphic, I inadvertently went “away” from the site and lost the whole fucking caboose.  Goshdamnitalltohell. Fuck me.

My apologies, I’ll try to summarize.

One, I’ve been buying NUGT for five weeks to various painful degrees of success.

Two, the 120-month exponential moving average on the dollar ($USD for you Stockcharts buds) was breached for the first time in a decade in late 2002, leading to our glorious metals revolution.  Since then, the dollar has bumped but not pierced that line on a monthly basis FOUR TIMES since that initial drop, all of those time led to sad days upon the ascending attempt (the saddest effort ending the first time in February of 2009) and happy, glorious days upon the subsequent failures (remember March 2009 friends?), at least for we PM fans.

Three, the last attempt lasted THREE PLUS MONTHS, from March to June.  We are now enjoying another rapid descent.  If we turn back up again here, on the dollar, I can probably tell you the PM bull is dead.  If not, we are headed to Nirvana once again, sans the blown out brains of the lead singer, etc.

Here’s the thing, don’t buy NUGT tomorrow, as it will probably pull back on a test of $1350.  However, if we breach that level like “butter” with no pullback, be prepared to get aggressive.  In the meantime, we might get a present from SLW‘s “miss” tonight.  AG, EXK and SLW are nascent monsters once again.

All that said, you should also have TBT, as the bonds are beginning their own slow motion train wreck, courtesy of the Bernanke-Obama Hubris Nexus.

Be well.  I appreciate you all.

_______________________________________

 

 

 

Comments »

$1,400 is Key Here

Gold shorts
_________________________

The 1,350 to $1,400 area is going to be important here.   We banged against $1,400 a couple of times over the past two days and were not able to surpass it until this  early this morning, when we had a quick break and then a jet to over $1,420.  There was a lot of selling into that break, and so a retest of $1,400 will be increasingly important to see if this will be a failed bear flag or an actual recovery from the recent oversold condition. 

We are as of this writing, trading at $1,407.

There is a possibility that we could snap back extremely hard on this recent down-plunge.  There are stories all over the internet about large physical purchasing going on.  This could be anecdotal (well, it IS anecdotal), or it could reflect the difference between the paper and physical markets.   If the last couple of days action was a desperate move to combat an imminent physical delivery problem (as some have speculated), we could see a torching of the shorts like none have encountered since early 2009.   Stay vigilant and nimble here.

______________________

Comments »

Was it Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE 450 300]

________________________________

I don’t need to tell any of you who were paying attention about Friday’s crater job on the precious.  Coming about on the Friday before options expiration week, at at the end of a long and dreary down cycle, it certainly looked nicely timed to shake the trees loose of many golden and silver ducats.  Friday was a nice day to make that first physical purchase and tomorrow morning may be even better as a result of the follow through.

I’m holding on to what I’ve got for the almost inevitable mean reversion play here.  The precious miner bullish percentage index (“$BPGDM“) is at absolute ZERO.  The last time we hit zero on that scale was in December of ’08, at the very nadir of the financial meltdown.  What’s more the Hulbert gold sentiment rating is off the chart completely (yes, below -20, otherwise known as “uncharted territory.”)  We lost another $50 tonight before the rebound, and we could even see $1400 tomorrow.  Is this the time to give up the ghost?  No, it’s blood in the streets time.   You know what Mr. Rothschild said about the time to be looking to buy, right?  Consider that the Buying on Weakness number for GLD was its highest ever on Friday at $144 mm in block trades.  That’s the big boys out collecting.

The best bet right now is physical, and or waiting for the turn, with wariness and apt cunning.  Fly got some AG on Friday, and while he may have been a touch early, I think he’s got the right idea.  The fast flyers will rebound 20+% when this plunge is over.  I also like the fat dividend alpha males like AEM and NEM here… they too have been beaten down over-harshly.

Hang on, folks, we’ve been through these before.

Best to you all.

_______________________

 

Comments »

Wrapped Tight

KWare

__________________________________

Everything’s relative, I guess, including pain.  Today’s revisit to the recent lows (and no, we’re not there yet) is not as painful as, say — a bloody compound tibial fracture jutting messily out of one’s shin.  That said, it sure has been a frustrating six months, hasn’t it?   And yet, if you look at all the major charts, it looks like at this late point in the cycle, the worst we are going to get is a revisit to the end of February lows, which — not insignificantly– were at the 200-week exponential moving averages for most gold and silver stocks.  Royal Gold (RGLD) is still my favorite here, but you’d have to be crazy not to take advantage of the yielding plays available through NEM, AEM, and even ABX — and those are large caps you’d never see me recommending in a “normal” market.

But this isn’t normal.  There’s a concerted, global (read Big 8) effort to devalue currencies — and therefore reprice debt — the world over.  The only way those central banks can get away with this kind of routine, and save their debauched systems, is to get it done under cover of a “deflationary” scenario.  The easiest path to that is to keep their foot on the less liquid large commodity and precious metal markets.   This whole American Earl Revolution is a God-send to the central bankers, because it’s bringing supply on line in a period of global currency inflation.  Ask yourself why oil prices have remained so stubbornly high, however, despite the onlining of so much new supply in the world’s greatest petroleum consumer.

How much longer can this kind of thing go on? Until the little guy cries “uncle” as loud as Soc Gen just did?  Given that I was expecting a retest, and the large volume bars we saw at the late February lows, I am thinking this week and maybe the next will be the final washout.  I’m still holding tight to my remaining cash, however.  Like in late February of 2009, I don’t expect these prices to hang around for very long once the next cycle takes flight.   That said, I think there will be ample time to take part once the bull trend resumes.

Best to you all, and Go Cards!

_____________________________________________

PS — this retrace is also an excellent time to buy some physical, if you’ve been holding off, including 100 oz silver bars and nice liquid gold coins like Maple Leafs or Eagles.
______________________

Comments »

You Sure You Want Some of This?

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuHYMv_6KNU 450 300]

_______________________

Defense wins championships, right?  It also keeps one alive to survive and advance.  With Cypress pulling out the last minute levers to confiscate “excess deposits” in order to balance its public accounts, how good are you feeling about “independent” depository institutions right now?

Sure, I know.  None of that stuff could ever happen in the U.S.   We’ve only got $20 trillion or so in 401k assets across the country.  We’re only a Bloomberg decision away from your friendly gummint deciding that asset plan could be much more “sustainable” under their “supervision.”  And heck, what’s safer than gov’t treasuries after all?’

Remember, they are just looking out for your best interests.

But own some physical gold and silver anyway (now’s a great time to pick some up for the longer haul).  And you know what?  A Kimber ACP might not be the worst idea either.

Best to you all.  Go Cards.

_______________________

Comments »

Bring the Gold

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw 450 300]

_________________

Choo-choo?

 

(Slowly, slowly now… no need to be hasty, but I like RGLD and AEM a lot.)

 

_________________

Comments »