Sorry I haven’t been around to keep company. I’m being kept by many companies. At first glance, if you look at my favorite universe, it seems like it’s hand holding time. However, I’ve looked over my long term charts tonight and I can’t believe how cheap some of these miners are trading right now. SLW has held up reasonably well, but AG and EXK are Christmas presents here. Get them for your kids. RGLD continues to take hits, but mein gott it’s tasty here. I like AUY and even BAA, as well.
I held off the whole month of January, and did not spend any “year end funds.” That changes tomorrow. I’m getting more of “all of the above,” but will keep some dry powder for further Crazy Eddie liquidation sales. Everyone is printing folks. Every one is racing to the bottom. If you think that will hurt the precious, you need to have a look at how much Blackrock and Fidelity own of RGLD, and how much they’ve accumulated recently. If you think they are the dumb money, well… God bless.
Overall thumbs up to the RNC. Some lame moments, but this is the Republicans, after all. They are the opposite of slick. Unlike many, I enjoyed Clint’s off the cuff rambling. He’s like your crotchety grandfather — the one you got your sense of humor from, the one who could always make you smile. Rubio had the second best speech of the convention, after only Ryan, and his tying his own immigrant roots-story into the Euro-style socialist policies of the Obama Administration was as spot-on as it was rhetorically brilliant. To whit:
“These (Obama policies) are the ideas that people come to America to get away from.”
Mitt was better than I expected, if only third place (Christie was terrible, IMHO, btw). He humanized himself, I thought, and connected with the women’s vote, which will be crucial. His economic versatility can be taken for granted, and it will be what helps save this Republic, but he’s not going to get that chance without “the womenses.” Unlike Obama, he’s not just another pretty face.
I’m reasonably upbeat about the prospects of the GOP ticket going into November, but much work remains to be done. Despite Obama’s Jimmy Carteresque record, he’s got major dollar-equivalent support from the likes of the major networks and wire services. The good news is the American populace is discounting these propaganda organs substantially in the 21st Century. The Obama-Reid-Pelosi abysmal record is there for those who want to review it, and it’s our job as intelligent arbiters of our own republic to make sure the truth is not buried under slander, spin and misdirection. God bless us all.
I think yesterday’s downspike may have presented an opportunity, market-wise. I may start to step back into some of my sold off SLW and SIL positions. I also like SLV for the duration here. Those of you who have not done so may even think about physical silver. I think we’re done pulling back and getting ready for the (longer term) move back to the 2011 highs. We’re back above the 200 day EMA (and pulled back to it yesterday at $29.40). We may pay pull back to fill in some gaps in the recent rise, but I don’t see SLV getting back below $28.50 any time soon.
For those fleet of foot and young enough to throw some bones on a play, I think BAA presented a nice opportunity yesterday on that big pullback. If you look at this five minute chart, you’ll see a bunch of buying in the last hour of trading, all at that magic $4-dollarish mark.
I think this thing is headed back to $5.00 at some point before year end, and that’s 20% from here. Keep in mind this is a risky one, and against my usual gold miner picking strategy as it’s got tonnes of political risk, being in the “Democratic”(hah!) Republic of Congo. Keep your finger on the “caution” button for this sucker.
Another beaten down stock I was asked about (by Ragin’ Cajun, it turns out, sorry I took so long RC!) is rare earth miner MCP — Molycorp. I don’t own any of this but looking at the chart, it seems like this would be as safe buy with your stops set below the close on the 28th ($10.75). I think yesterday’s action was typical back and fill volatility, and MCP is ready to join the re-inflation party Chairman Bernanke is about to touch off in pursuit of “four more years” for he and Barry.
_______________________ The dollar’s off 70 cents as I type this, down below $82 again to a low we haven’t seen since mine and the Fly’s birthday on the 25th of last month. That “chuffing” sound you hear is Ben Bernanke’s magical reverse vacuum blowing hundred dollar bills at Spain by way of behind the scenes European central bank bailout transfers. $125 billion you say? It’s a mere bag of shells when one can print up one’s own constantly deflating sovereign currency in a zirp atmosphere. Isn’t this fun? Why didn’t Japan think of this??
Anyone else getting the hard stuff while it’s cheap? Take a look at my two “T’s” — TKC and recently murdered TC for a flyer. Of course I still love BAA, but ANV is looking very tasty and has RGLD ever really disappointed you? On the silver side, it’s broken record time again… AG, EXK and SLW remain the nobles. PAAS for a flyer. For those with less time, GDXJ and SIL are the ETF plays for now.
I had one of the worst Friday’s in my career this past week, dealing with a very large dollar client issue that one would have to hear to believe. One thing I can say about my industry, there’s hardly ever a dull moment. You guys think trading stocks is a bitch? Try something more illiquid next time…
I can finally utter a sigh of relief as I settle into a relaxing half week or so of sun and stupor on the Treasure Coast. Tomorrow, I sunbathe and wrangle with bull sharks in aquamarine waters!
HA! Just kidding, actually I’ve got two conference calls tomorrow morning and then another 8-12 noon job on Thursday. Then when I get back Sunday evening, I can pack my bags for all this scheiss to start all over again, this time not in the Orange Grove State, or with any mai-tais to accommodate.
Listen pals, I know I’ve begged your mercy before, but this time I think I might be straining your good will to it’s failing point. Listen, I know something’s wrong when my only knowledge of the public markets is via reading my e-mail blasts from Chess, RC and Jeremy (The PPT ratings). I get all kinds of garbage through all manner of metric, but those three have been my anchor these last weeks. Meanwhile, I’ve done very little in my own portfolio — perhaps out of stubbornness, but perhaps also because I believe that the miners are so beaten down in relation to the price of gold and silver that I think this may be the best buying opportunity I’ve witnessed since the March 2009 recovery.
Yes, you heard that right. Every metric I look at shows vast undervaluation of the precious miners. If you never touched these things, now is the time my friend. I am even thinking of looking at the options market here. Today’s divergence in the PM’s versus the overall down market may have finally revealed the truth about the liquidity that cannot be denied in these names.
And somehow, it all makes bizarre sense. Listen — we just had a deal go out that had more bids on it than anything I’ve ever been associated with in my career, and yes, that includes my time in the white shoe world of the Fortune 500-exclusive IB’s of Neuva York. It’s a shark frenzy out there in the private markets ladies and germs… those dudes have capital– shitte tonnes of it – and they want to spend. You think its twin in the public market is really going to puke it all down here? Good luck, pal.
BAA, you sick fuggers. BAA. Then RGLD, SLW and UPS, and MON. At least that.
Wish me luck, and if you cannot stomach that, then wish me survival.
As for today, it seems the U.S. dollar is doing it’s usual plungerooni below $79 again. When it breaks $79.60 with vigour (sic), please call me. Until then I will be eyes forward on all of my “X” play metal picks. Of particular interest are the siblings XRA and it’s offshoot XG (or is it the other way ’round? No matter). XRA is currenlty up 5.5% at $2.89, and XG is up over 3.6% at $6.26.
My other X-play is on the silver side — EXK, my old favorite, up 3.8% at $9.86 this day. For lotto type picks, I continue to recommend the accumulation of BAA and AAU, both also up today to varying degrees.
Last but not least, let’s not forget the rare earths. I know they are frustrating, but you will kick yourself if they take off without you. Besides MCP and REE (the more grandfatherly of the bunch), I continue to nibble on AVL and QRM. As always, remain cautious. Any rebound in the dollar will negate all this good stuff, and signal us to lighten our loads.
While I wait on the precious metal markets to resolve themselves, I’m subsisting on a diet of heavy metals and pure refined sugar. If I taper off in my blogging in the coming days it’s likely because I’ve transformed into a Brundel Fly.
As mentioned, AVL , REE, MCP have been moving nicely (although tapering off a bit at the end of the day), while the PM miners tread water trying to catch a bid from the falling Uncle Buck. I did note that BAA finished back above $5.00 again.
Nope, the only thing that really stood out today in the areas I’m looking at was a refiner… and no, not the petroleum and kerosene variety, but the lonely sweet variety, sugar shack shifter Imperial Sugar — IPSU.
There have been all kinds of articles about sugar being the commodity of 2012, and I take them all with a grain of salt (no pun intended). I do, however, like a decent looking chart when I see one, and this one promises at least some continuation on today’s high volume, high percentage move. Just like the last time we got a high volume candle, I think we’ll get at least two more days out of this, which could very well bring us to our next resistance, at the underside of the 200-day EMA, or appoximately $7.60.
For those checking the math, that’ approximately 34% over today’s close. Do you feel lucky?