Unless you are living the hermit’s life, under a rock within a deep dark Paleozoic cave, you are aware that next Saturday’s NCAA Final Four College Basketball Championship will feature two Kentucky rivals in a battle to determine who will represent the state in the National Championship game. Despite being a huge fan of the (currently) nine-point underdog Cardinals, I am experiencing Zen-like calm and good feeling.
You see, like with my “What Me Worry?” New York Giants earlier this year, I never expected the Cards to get past the second round of the Big East Tournament, never mind the far more expansive NCAA Tourney. But like my Superbowl winning Giants, the Cards have considerably outperformed my expectations. Using a mixture of psychotically wearying man/zone defense and pure will power, they have won their last eight games in a row, taking not only the Big East Title (like eventual NCAA winners UConn did in 2011), but also beating all reasonable odds to arrive in the Final Four this weekend.
They took out Michigan State like they were a bunch of soft muppet Goldman clients, not the eventual Tournament Champion I had slated the Spartans for in my personal brackets. They followed that win by beating an absolutely on-fire, can’t-miss-three-point-shooting Florida Gator team seemingly through psychological intimidation alone. It was truly miraculous, and I am now happy to the point where my inborn Irish sense of karma has me looking out for fast-approaching meteorites.
Because I can’t lose now, really. No one expected my Cards to do this well, just like no one expected the Giants to get into the playoffs in early December. Or to beat Green Bay or San Francisco (and not have to play New Orleans again!). Therefore I am playing with house money right now…
And guess who has to win it all this year or be seen as ultimate chokers? Do you think maybe it’s that team with the five “sure fire” top ten draft picks? The Blue people from down the road, east of us, in little Lexington?
Can you feel the warmth of my smile from here, my friends?
On a more serious topic, I was also going to write about the possible Civil War brewing with regard to the Supreme Court’s coming decisions regarding the Commerce Clause and its relation to Obamacare. However, I don’t wish to spoil my current mellow mood, so I will hold off, probably until tomorrow. Suffice it to say — for now — that this may be the most important Supreme Court decision since the New Deal Era (error?).
More tomorrow. Let tonight be about the (relative) innocence of college hoops.
As for the stocks and other investments this blog is supposed to be about, well, I felt good enough about the state of the dollar and the silver market to add a significant portion of SSRI to my portfolio. I think it’s inexpensive here, frankly, and likely trade bait at some point. That was all I added however, as I am still bound by caution here as we approach the end of the month and the Ides of May.
My best to you all.
A Short Introduction To Louisville Hoop, Circa 2012:
Yes, the Cards kicked ass in their usual inimical, erosive fashion, but the Lucky Birds are you today, my friends, not my 13 point winning, New York Giants imitating Louisville Cardinals. Why you ask?
Oh! How lucky you are to be able to catch the $HUI at the 200 day moving average! It’s not often we get there:
I’m going to grab some GDX and GDXJ, today as I think we’re close to at least a tradeable bottom. We will likely have to be somewhat nimble, but I think this might be the nadir — especially if the dollar moves down into an intermediate cycle low. ANV and BAA are my best individual bets for the risk takers.
For those among you who are adventurous… the cheap stuff on the silver side is really, well… cheap ! SSRI is looking especially tasty here, for example, as is AG. EXK already started taking off yesterday. Of course SIL is there for those looking for “pool” instead of “pond.” Note also, the rare-earths as well. If the dollar drops, they will all benefit.
Have a great weekend, and go Cards (and Cats and Hoosiers, whoops! I win either way on that one!).
I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again. Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand.
Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions? It’s certainly possible.
But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.
If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now – sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL.
I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.
God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.
Really, I’m spoiling you. It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention. A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!). Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.
Take PZG as an example. I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now. Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:
Now check out the daily. See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day? That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?
Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line. If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all. You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak. AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point. Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.
______________________ Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70′s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.
In future, iBC particpants will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.
As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.
Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end. Hang on for the ride.
Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far. For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG). Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively. Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.
I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however. I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.
Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks –AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%). Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.
As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick. I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.
The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%) and COP (-4.0%). Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout. You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.
Options expiry week always makes for fun times in the already-volatile precious metal markets, and this week was no exception. In fact, I’m thinking of just posting pictures of Care Bears and soothing contra-alto laden Carpenter’s videos during these weeks in the future. I think that policy would be much better for our collective gastro-intestinal health.
I guess we should have been even more wary this week, as the POG and it’s idiot sister, the POS, were both due for cycle lows on top of their collective miners’ options’ expiry. That combination made for some sickening drops this week, and now, I contend, for some very attractive purchase prices.
When was the last time you were able to buy SLW under $30.00? Howabout ANV under $30?? Oh, sorry, that was yesterday. You snooze, you lose. SSRI looks like a nice pinch right now, if you’re looking for a cherry. EXK and AG in that order, remain the best of the silver surfers, however.
For those wading back in, the ETFs would be the order of the day… I like them in this order — GDXJ, SIL, GDX, and for the brave of heart — NUGT (real small now!).
I made mention earlier in the week that I want to see the price of gold ($GOLD) hold that 34-week EMA. It will be interesting to see if it does get back there today…as that’s $50 north of current prices at $1642.80. There is precedence for closing very briefly below there on a weekly basis — way back in April of 2009, when we were just crawling out of the muck. Could this be a similar situation? Let’s see how we close today.