Sorry, I gotta make this one short and sweet. I got a barfing three year old on my hands. They don’t like to accomodate you at that age, if you’re familiar, so I have to play “moving target” ovah heah.
Anyway, the Jacksons didn’t do much today, and you can see my comments below. The two big movers were [[TC]] — which is just a Godzillian monster ripping down ricepaper buildings in Tokyo — busted right past my 61.8% long term fib line today and proceeded to keep going. I wanted to sell the calls only to find — to my deep chagrin and embarassment — there were none. So I sold one third of my position, as reported, at $11.21. I guess we’ll find out very soon if that was a bad move, but considering I had gotten those shares in the low sixes, I could not complain.
[[TBT]] is the other marching gorilla, responding to all kinds of distress out there in Ten Year Bond land. Well, I just don’t think we’re going to crack 4% on the first attempt here, auction or not. I just think that’s too easy. I will likely sell the calls again tomorrow on any further march to $60, keeping in mind we may have seen the high water mark this afternoon at $59.79.Only [[PAAS]] was over 2% for the rest of the Jackson’s and only [[ANDE]] — which needed a rest — was down more than 2%… so, a blah day.
I will caution you to watch the PM’s tomorrow however, as I got the feeling that this current consolidation may be coming to an end, one way or the other. Stay alert.
On non Jacksons [[ENTR]] finally broke out a bit and [[ANV]] showed nice relative strength considering the paucity of movement in the rest of the gold sector. That may be one to own when we start moving again.
That’s all for now, save the list. Be well everybody, and watch the puke flu.
______________________
{I know I keep fiddling with the format of this performance chart, but please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.}
| Name | 9-Jun | 10-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 31.30 | $ 30.48 | -2.62% | Still on the trendline. | |
| EGO | 9.21 | 9.13 | -0.87% | Would like to see it kiss the st trend line @ $8.90 | |
| GDX | 41.09 | 40.80 | -0.71% | Hanging on 61.8% long term fib. Added 1k today @$40.88 | |
| GLD | 93.83 | 93.86 | 0.03% | POG down about $2. Waiting. | |
| IAG | 10.17 | 10.21 | 0.39% | Holding pattern. | |
| MON | 85.07 | 85.85 | 0.92% | Dropped and recovered nicely all afternoon. | |
| NRP | 24.11 | 24.01 | -0.41% | Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove” | |
| PAAS | 21.71 | 22.15 | 2.03% | Looking to get over $22.30 in the morning. | |
| RGLD | 44.37 | 43.90 | -1.06% | Touched the trendline as expected, should go north from here. | |
| SLV | 15.03 | 15.01 | -0.13% | PO Silver down a mere 8 cent. | |
| SLW | 10.29 | 10.18 | -1.07% | Will it get to the trendline @ $9.90? | |
| SSRI | 22.59 | 22.75 | 0.71% | Making a move for the top of the cup again. | |
| TBT | 57.22 | 58.77 | 2.71% | Missed $60 by fitty cent. Waiting for auction to sell calls. | |
| TC | 10.58 | 11.32 | 6.99% | Just a freaking monster. Took 1/3 off @ $11.21. Mistake? | |
| TSO | 15.51 | 15.35 | -1.03% | Needs to show me something here, or buh-bye. | |
| AVG | 0.39% |
Didn’t get a chance to thank you on your write up/tech analysis of TIE and TRID the other day. It was very helpful and appreciated.
Sorry about your toddler with the flu. Poor little thing.
I plan on being fully invested in the PM’s buy late fall, and have planned on pullbacks/consolidation this summer.
One of the gold-bugs I follow is looking for a early fall rally and then major sell off before the big move up. I don’t know, we’ll see. For me, just trying to buy on the dips.
have you considered long term call spreads on GLD? I am wondering what you think of the idea. I am interested in gold, but I don’t want to be the guy who bought just as the IMF sells.
Thanks Chanci, I hope you also took advantage of the “Devil Dog Special”- SPAR, that day, which got the negative blessing from our favorite contra-indicator.
When I got home, apparantly the Kiddy Advil had kicked in and with his fever gone, he was ravenous. Just about talked is to death at the dinner table too, telling is how he was going out to a “pizza restaurant as soon as he was done!.
I would not worry about your accumulation of gold/silver. Prices from this point- we are still in the early innings here, imho– are somewhat academic.
__
Ryan- I just don’t see the value of trying to time a cyclical bull. Just a waste of funds if you prefer to just continue holding til its over.
I am less than concerned about this alleged IMF sale. If the IMF is foolish enough to sell their gold with the hyperinflationary threat in the air, then I will welcome any temporary disruption, as I know that sale would speed that statist tax sucking organization’s doom.
___
Boy, I really need to proof-read before hitting send.
Missed SPAR. Reading only sporadically, as summer is family time for us, but still managing to get a few good heads up here at IBC, and trade when I can steal a moment.
Mostly, I am moving to a longer term horizon, while at the same time trying to avoid getting killed in any sudden moves down. Whew! Last year taught a lesson that will not be easily forgotten.
Good plan.
__
yeah, I am not necessarily trying to time the bull. I am more looking at getting more bang per buck.
The GLD $100 strike January 2011 calls are only $13, I could sell the $110 strike against it for $10.
If I buy back the $110 strike around $7 at some point, then I have a $100 strike for only $10
I get the equivalent of 9 times bang for my buck in that scenario.
Ryan my friend, don’t you worry one little bit about the ol’ IMF dumping all their gold on the market. As far as ‘Swords of Damacles’ go, they are dangling a safety pin over a rhinocerous. IMHO the POG has already worked that sale in, even at today’s COMEX bs price. Sure, it might hocus-pocus it down marginally for the day of the announcement (ie very briefly), but all the gold they have doesn’t amount to a drop in the ocean of demand that is washing up from China’s shores as they slowly and subtlely unload their US debt positions. And demand isn’t just coming from the Far East, either. Following that line of reasoning: such a wholesale of their bullion would leave our dear economic hitmen friends holding bushel upon bushel of increasingly worthless FIAT currency. Only someone as thick as Gordon Brown would do that…
Jake, I hope the poor little gaffer is feeling better soon; it sounds like your dry cleaner won’t be goin’ out of business any time soon.
please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.
I don’t. It is a little bit confusing. Since I religiously read your blog and monitor my Jacksonian Watch List, when I come to a new blog post, I expect something forward looking, not a rerun.
Well, the post is not a rerun, just the June 9th closing prices in the summary results table are, so you can see the progression to today’s close.
If that’s confusing, I’ll leave it out.
_
IMO I like the prior days prices left in.
My two and a half yr old son had his first day of Nursery school yesterday and turned back when leaving class and said, “Goodbye friends.”
Your PM JCHP is wonderful for those of us who cannot monitor the market all day.
Hope the little one is on the mend at that the dyspepsia doesn’t spread to siblings or parents. Also hope you have a good dry cleaner.
I concur, I like the previous day’s price – I have been trying to figure out if the percentages were the daily or since the beginning of the holding for that equity.
Cuervo- I usually only do the “since inception” results at the end of the month, as I don’t want people getting caught up in the idea that a stock has “run” too much for entry.
__
Jake, I’d love to start following your positions in my account. Could you maybe say those positions that you feel are still at acceptable entry points and those that you would wait on?
Sold June 59 calls $1.90 on TBT
now watch the 30yr treas auction go like crapola & TBT busts up & over 60
ANDE and TC are a little overextended here, but I’d say all the others save TSO are buyable right now.
____________
Bruce – that’s why I’m waiting on selling the calls again. Got burnt last time on the quick run up.
_______
Junior miner RBY, BTFO again.
I’m trying to catch a pullback on this one, but there hasn’t been much of one.
“Buy” rated on the PPT.
___________
Just sold my TBT position. I’ll reload later. Redeploying some of the proceeds into a bit of small cap hand grenades.
Sold TBT @ 59.13
Added EGO @9.24, TRID @1.91, and FNSR @ ~0.84
Hope I won’t be typing with a pencil in my mouth after 2:00 PM.
bot 4k RBY @ 3.08.
_________
Yogi — that’s why they’re called “hand” grenades!
_________
Bot 6k FTK, finally following the Fly on this table pounder… $2.76.
_______
Sold ESLR at $2.81, BOT the June $12.50 calls in CDE for $1.45
Jake, do you have an email? I have so many questions that I’ve been wanting to ask on this site, but you seem the most approachable of the guys here. Not to mention you’re clearly a savvy investor!
Yes, you can get me at [email protected]
I think I also have a [email protected] email too, but I haven’t hooked up w. it yet, so try that first.
__________________
Got some more HEB-raic brethren at 2.67. This is definitely a hissing hand grenade however, so only use the money you’d start campfires with.
_____________
Also, sold another 20 MONGO’s at 12.70, 20 left.
See what I was saying about MON being an excellent swing trading stock? I think I shall start calling it MONstrous Santa.
_____________
Don’t know if anyone’s noticed, but this little chippy one’s a stealthy stalker, now approaching BTFO levels — AMKR.
(PPT — BUY)
_______
TIE is just a thing of beauty… a real “purty moufed” chart.
Just moth handsing it up right now.
__________
Jake,
On the performance table (not technically a chart IMO!), I understand you not wanting to show the portfolio or position to date gain, but I sure would like to see it. Or maybe just a rolling 1, 2, or 3 month portfolio gain % or something. Something to show the long term performance. What would be real cool would be a long term portfolio value chart, like a real chart plotting the value over time compared to indices, etc….
That’s your department, happy chappy. I’ll put the data out there, you can make your purty charts.
____________
JakeGint: You get out of TBT yet? I feel like this will be a near term top, with the great auction and little in the way of near term auctions coming up. Long term I still like to be short treasuries.
Jake:
The Jacksonian has been on a nice run. When do you think we should sell? Will a major pullback in the market affect the PMs?
JakeGint: You get out of TBT yet? I feel like this will be a near term top, with the great auction and little in the way of near term auctions coming up. Long term I still like to be short treasuries.
Eggsactly, that’s why I’ll never sell TBT, although I will sell the calls when it ramps, like I cautioned, to $60 today.
Unfortunately, I only sold half the calls on my position, because I was a weak hand on them. Ah well.
__________
The Jacksonian has been on a nice run. When do you think we should sell? Will a major pullback in the market affect the PMs?
Yes, the miners more than the metals themselves. However, I will not be selling much, if any. I will likely sell calls or a piece of a position if there are none, like I did with TC yesterday (to my chagrin!).
______________