UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall. It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace. Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07. No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.
Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today. On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on. [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up. Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?
I like [[TIE]] and [[TC]] is just insane. I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact. In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today). I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.
On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts. Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold. Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.
Queries welcome.
Here’s a great theme for today. Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida. Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):
Update: Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiztRc910Ps 450 300]__________________________________
Update: Sorry, no calls to sell on TC! Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21. I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.
Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles. Hanging on the 61.8% fib.
Update: Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot. Isn’t that just like a woman?
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Jake, I am interested in playing the “bond-bubble,” and from reading you guys I feel that the main consensus is that TBT is the way to go. Can you suggest a different route?
Anon, see answer in previous thread.
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Sold 2k shs TC @ 11.21.
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Jake, We’ve got one more auction tomorrow for the 30 year, right? If so “they” will probably sell the bonds into the auction to get better prices, then rally after the auction. At least that’s how it used to go. I’m considering taking profits on TBT on another move up, especially if we get through $60. Nice job and good luck.
Thanks for the heads up on the embed. Fixed, moved from LA to Hamburg.
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Bot a little bit more GDX into the close, just because I’m a bug that way.
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Love your picks Jake. I’ve banked mad coin following you with the Jacksonians.
What are your thoughts on the miners if we get a large (+15%) correction? Do you think the PMs will hold up while the rest of the markets correct? I’m wondering if people will flock to gold/silver in fear during a big downturn, or if everything will get taken out back for a beating.
Jake,
What expiry where you planning on using for selling the TC and TBT calls?
Thanks
Fook,
I think we may have some correction along with the rest of the market, as that’s natural. However, I don’t think it’ll be near the pain level of the rest of the market, and some names may be relativley unscathed.
Gold is in a bull market, as is silver. That’s important.
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Anon — I usually try to sell the month behind the front month (ie, this month) so I can get some theta decay in there, but also so that I’m not holding them for too long.
You can really go out as long as you like, however, as you can always buy them back if they get real cheap. I like to just let ’em rot, though, and expire worthless if I can.
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