I immediately went down to see what’s been keeping Danny from blogging…

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Since I was experiencing a cataclysmic Vitamin-D overproduction cycle out here in SoCal, the last sunny place left in America, I decided to come inside and see what the heck was going on with this market.  For one thing it closes at 1:00 out here, so the hippies have many hours with which to purchase pot and snugly pack their bongs before the 6 O’Clock news.  Odd, no?

Well, it turns out that despite my hedging and raising large amounts of cash, my portfolio continues to metastisize.   In fact, metaphorically, it looks like a large Engine No. 9 freight locomotive going down the slope of Mt. Pilot, with all it’s air and hand breaks on full stop.   I’m showering enough sparks off the railbed to tetch a bonfire, but I’m still moving forward.  

I don’t mind giving up some of that opportunity cost, however, because we’re trying to be responsible with our cash over here at the JakeGint Blog of Low(er) Grade Mental Disorders.  Here, we go by the semi-paranoid thesis that Mr. Market is trying to steal your wallet every second of every day.   So if that means we don’t partake in his reindeer games to the fullest extent allowed by California law, but we return home with all ten of our fingers attached and facing in the proper direction, then we’ve properly schooled you in the tenets of risk management.

Right now, reindeer games are accelerating already large wins in such Dogberts as FTK, QSURD, ENTR, and AVL.  If you have not taken profits in any of these, I would at least recommend a relatively tight stop.  As well, while the miners are beginning to stall (as predicted), other Jacksonians, like MON, ANDE, TCK and TC continue to push along oblivious to the divergences and breadth problems we’re seeing popping up all over.

And here’s my real problem… the Gold Bug Index $HUI has broken through some significant support here (the 20 and 50 day EMAs) and is now trying to rally back above those levels again.  Here’s the thing… I don’t think it can until it tests the 200 day EMA again like it did in the last major cycle down, back in July.  For those of you who are not as concerned about the PM market, a breakdown in the $HUI will usually give you 5 to 10 days to get the heck out of the rest of the market too.  

How long will I hold to this thesis you axe (sic)?   Until we clear that green line atop the circular bodies on the right in the above chart.   Only then will I say, “You have passed the test, $HUI, well done!”

More live pics of Danny to come…. best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3QYLJ8zH5E&feature=related 450 300]

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In certain Northern Mid-Western climes, the citizens have become so mushily liberal that — in their overwhelming compassion –they have confined their hapless professional football teams to a regulated indoor environment.

As a result, no one in these left-leaning regions need suffer for their gridiron art in the fashion of Lombardi, Hornung, Robestelli, and other Hall of Fame stalwarts of the past.   Come game time, both players and fans can loll about at room temperature, consuming multiple jumbo franks and 64 oz. Mountain Dews without fear of nippy nose or chilly tootsies.   

Real tough guy stuff, no?    You’ll find it no wonder, then, that these teams haven’t won a Superbowl in… well…

Forever.

I bring this up in order to levy well deserved shit to Chief Admin Jeremiah and his wussified, faggot-assed (not that there’s anything wrong with that) Minneapolis Metrodome Vikings.

I mean, if you are going to be pussified about going to see a game in the weather — despite your arguably holding a home field competitive advantage (see “Packers, Green Bay“) —  then by all means build youself a cozy indoor stadium so you can spare yourself the chilblains on your vanilla layers of Midwest portly.   

But do us all a favor, eh, Minnesota?  Please get yourselves some architectural engineers that will factor in the possibility of snow accumulating on the roof, eh?  You know, just in case it gets warm enough to do so every now and then?

Thanks so much.   Your friends,

The N.Y. Giant Fans With Three Superbowl Trophies and, Not Coincidentally, an Open Air Stadium

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It looks as if The Bernank (sic) and his antics will continue on, at least for the beginning of options week here.   Like a good neighbor, I will be reducing my positions again, trimming here, trimming there and braiding the remains for a nice Christmas streudel rope to be given out to wassailers and other visiting Folk o’ the Yule.

I will probably get rid of the last remnants of my IAG calls, which have been less than satisfactory these last few weeks.  I will likely retain the underlying stock, however, and only be trimming my outsize positions (ANV, SLW, EXK, GDX) to raise some cash for the new millenium, where the chief currency will be penny farthings made up of plastic doll’s buttons.

Again, this is not the long term strategy, and I will not be taking down my core, only my oversized accumulations, which have done so well since September especially.  More tomorrow, if I can get out of my driveway.

Best to you all.  And keep an eye on BIOS and ENTR.   These old stalwarts seem to be making a move again, as do non metal Jacksonians ANDE , TCK and TC.

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Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility;
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, [conjure] up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favor’d rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;
Let it pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o’erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a galled rock
O’erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swill’d with the wild and wasteful ocean.

–William Shakespeare, Henry V

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Yes, it appears she’s ready again.   So, while we are waiting for the gold and silver pullback (hint, ANV is almost done!), take a few dollars of this play of our old girl ENTR once more:

As I mentioned in The PPT today, I expect even beloved SLW and EXK will pull back a bit here, so let some off, or just take a rest.   It shant be a long one.   And likely the semi news this evening will help our friend ENTR scale new heights once again.

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7R1_4h3kg0 450 300]

Mystery Solved Re: Fly’s Love for Wu Tang?

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Stung by yellow-jackets on Sat-ta-day, ruined by late night inept Giants football at hostile Lukoil Stadium on Sunday, yet still I rally with room to spare for the big city meeting with the mystery ex-pro ball player and current mutliple centimillionaire.  Could be one of my biggest deals since I moved South. (drum roll)

I’m so hood, I just can’t help it, dammit.

And what’s more, the market continued to rally, including my goldbug darling ANV, much to my re-hedged chagrin.  Thanks to my selling the calls on Friday, today’s almost $1.40 (5.3%) move felt a lot more like an $0.40 move.  Ah well, we can’t all be supreme market timers can we?

I also hedged about 60% of my SLW position on Friday, but she was largely flat today.   I do expect both names to climb back down the ladder very soon.  I won’t even bother showing you ANV’s chart, but suffice it to say it looks like an arborist standing on a stepladder that’s perched on the radio tower attached to the roof dome of the Chrysler Building.   Now if  that stock gets bought out tomorrow, you will probably hear me howling in Canarsie tonight, and the Maldives.

All hedges aside, I was still up about 0.5% today, and the market is looking vaguely dispeptic.  Tomorrow the Fed will send us into choleric spasms of one form or another, I’ve no doubt, and you know I’ll be watching the dollar for another breakdown from the $81 mark, like we briefly saw the other day.

That could set us off again to bulltard land, as I’ve been trying to relay to the agnostic bearish among us.   What’s more, f we do look like it’s run-time, it won’t just be the metals.   Yes, ENTR looks like it’s coiling for another sky-blast too.  And if you still have CMI, well, keep it as well, ey?

Best to you all, my wooties.

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“Buy Stocks, My Plebs!”
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I ran into CH (that’s what I call her, “CH” — we’re buds) at the perfume counter at Bergdorf’s and she said “fugheddaboud the gold and the silver stocks for now, Jake, go out and get you some high beta stocks. Now, ged OUD dah heah!”

That vocal coach has done wonders with her Joisey accent, no?

CREE, VECO, SQM, POWR, TIE and, most of all, ENTR are all on my radar screen for tomorrow.

Slainte.

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It’s not been a bad ride for ANV since we last talked about it, has it?  Well, all good things must come to an end… or at least a temporary pause, no?

And I expect that’s what we’ll be coming up on in ANV as early as tomorrow.  I won’t be selling any of my Smaug-horde, but I may very likely sell the calls in the high $21 dollar range.   If you got on board when I alerted you to the 200-day touch you’re up over 35% right now, and I should think that’s not a bad ride for less than a month.

You can see we’re approaching some pretty serious oversold levels here in this recent chart:

I will likely do the same for SLW, EGO and IAG as well, and I will reduce my AGQ levels too.   Some of my smaller positions, like FRG (also a huge winner today) and RBY may get trimmed as well, but most I will just leave to gestate further in the womb of this great gold bull, which I think will resume soon after this pull-back.

BAA — the chronic underperformer, comes to mind as a something about which Mother Mary whispered right in front of me, “Let it Be, son, Let it Be.”

Or maybe that was the Raven quothing “Nevermoooooaah!” 

Whatever.  If you really have the hankerin’ to buy something tomorrow, why not try that perennial Fly favourite and crusher of all things Broadcom — ENTR?   Note, you may recall (and certainly the fine gentlemen and ladies of The PPT know this) that I added to my pile on this the other day at the retest of the original breakout?

Not that there’s anything to all that crazy chart-chompin’ stuff.

Best to you all.

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