VIX is too low

I sat there, wondering, just wondering looking at myself.  I didn’t like it.  I need to run this, what the heck.  I grabbed my shoes and headed to the gym to meet the team.  It was a disaster.  I felt like I was Wade in every game against the Hawks this year… shut down.  It’s never good though, since I run the point on my team, when I’m off, we have no chance.  I’m not the best player on the team, but I run the offense; I find out who has the hot hand and I feed them, I find out what the defense is and I dissect it, just like the market.  We did not look like that team that won a record 10 straight in March.  We were up anyway, but then people started getting stupid.  I lost interest, my whole team loses interest.  I’ve been losing interest in a lot of things faster than usual lately.

This is lame, we lost, and we quit because we almost get into a brawl.  Kind of wish we did, maybe my insides will feel better if my outside gets worse.  Please swing at me, it’s been a while.  Nothing happens, just all talk.  So, we head out to Pali and play some recreational soccer.  I tell myself just run to run, and I end up doing all the scoring.  My friend brings in a girl from Cali there, and she’s a beauty.  Maybe that’s why I scored three goals.   Later that night I text my friend to tell Ms. Cali she’s cute… something like that.  She text me back her number.  Yes! This night is going good.  Ten minutes later I get another one- she has a boyfriend.  How fitting.  I respect that.  I delete her number from my phone, even though it’s difficult to delete those eyes from my mind.

So now I’m home, every muscle in my body is aching, plus the feeling of rejection is a kick to the stomach.  It’s almost 2 in the morning, and I’m purposely staying up so I can wake up in the afternoon because I know my friend is going to call me in the morning to go fishing down at Eternity Beach… I want to make sure I sleep through his call because that’s the same place where we scattered his brothers ashes.  “Dude, you are not normal”  I tell him.  He takes it as a compliment.  What an idiot.  I’m not going down there unless I have a vest anyway.  He swears he’ll jump in to save me if I fall off the cliff; I know he would.  That’s why I won’t go.

Finally I shower to wash away all the filth on my body and mind.  Only half works.   I check out the market.  Only half works there too.   Volume looks horrible, and we’ve been drifting up for weeks.  I’m kind of glad I was away from this. I tell myself I didn’t miss much.  “You’re not normal either.”

Classic bull trap?  Everything has been so classic, it’s almost like all the investors out there are out of character and moving the market on emotion.  It’s been a reflection of me.  An emotional mess acting out of character.  Darn it, how do I undelete her number?   So I check the VIX, and I can’t believe what I see.  We actually hit my “greed level” in the mid 30s.   It’s amazing how complacent people are getting with this rally to 8k.  It’s been an epic one, but joining the party here only means you’re about 10 minutes earlier than the cops.  There is no wall of worry, if there were, the VIX wouldn’t have broken down so quick.  The only thing warring with me is the fact that we have been consolidating before every next leg up, which is normally very bullish; but that’s okay… there’s one thing  learned this weekend:  even though you spot a girl who looks good, smells good, and is bilingual, it doesn’t mean anything if you’re “too late.”   This rally looks pretty, smells good, and sets off a positive tone for global markets.  Oh, dangerous.  I’ll take this low VIX number as my trump card.   Still holding it though.  All I need is one nice spike down and I’m shorting aggressively.  Yet, I hold back a little on purpose.  It’s quite obvious I’m not in the proper emotional or mental state to be trading.   Paranoia maybe?  Or just the fact that my trading instincts haven’t fully returned yet.  But hey, at least I’ve trained my eyes over the years to recognize enough patterns beneath the tape to know what’s happening in the market and how to react.  I tell myself there’s no need to be in a rush trading this market.  In fact, we coined a phrase within my circle:  “Fish another day.”  We never say it out loud though, but we all know when each other is thinking it.

Shoot, it’s 3 am.  I’m tired.  I probably won’t get your call tomorrow, but buddy, you’re a fool going down there to fish where we scattered his ashes. It doesn’t stop there though… I think it’s a little foolish to fish for longs here too.  Wear a vest, or fish another day.