Excerpt:

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GMCR took flight on Thursday after the company topped EPS estimates in its fiscal third-quarter. For the three months ended June 26, Green Mountain earned $18.6 million or 13 cents a share compared to $14.1 million or 12 cents a share in the same period last year. After adjusting for certain items, EPS came to 19 cents per share, topping analyst consensus by a penny. Revenue for the period spiked by 64% to $311.5 million.

The company shipped 846,000 Keurig-branded brewers in Q3, up 90% year-over-year. Given the company’s razor/razor-blade model for single-serving coffee, brewer sales bode well for the continued success of K-Cup portion packs as more households adopt the technology to use them.”

… this is such old news.  I’ve been cheerleading about this company all last year, saying how crazy their YOY growth was going to be, and now that 3Q numbers are out investors are acting like GMCR is going to dominate 2011.  There’s no doubt the Keurig machine is popping up in households across the country, but the curve is going to decline sharply soon.

So how to trade this?  Leave GMCR alone.  Chances are, I’m horribly wrong and GMCR makes new highs over and over.  Kind of like the embarrassment gave me 2 years ago.  That probably won’t strike twice, so I’m not worried about it.  However I like considering the alternative.  I probably would like to pick on CBOU, but I’m afraid they get bought out.  So what’s left is shorting PEET.  My target entry point is <37, you dig?  I’ve been eying this out for a while now.  It hasn’t hurt me staying short from 2 months ago, so I like where we stand here.

Last night I had a movie date.  Despicable Me in 3D.  The glasses were heavy duty and battery operated.  I was tempted to smuggle it out, the same way I smuggled in 2 Arizona ice teas, King Size Reeses Cups, BBQ Fritos, and Gummy Bears.  All I can say is, watch that movie this weekend, and pay the extra $4 for 3D.  Also, bring a large jacket to smuggle in the ice teas, because it just looks too obvious in your jeans.

All right bulls, you had your little fun.  I attack now!

Updates are on the charts.  Shorting…

And one spec long.  Buy and fuggedaboutit…

I’ve been doing some pretty cool stuff this month.  I got casted for a play here in Hawaii, and I performed twice.  Even though it’s a nonprofit acitivity, we get a lot of people showing up to the show.  Couple thousand people saw us last week.  We’ll be doing one more show in Samoan.  Yes, Samoan!!  I have two weeks to learn a page of Samoan words.  So far I got my opening line…

“Rasela!  Ua e faalogo i a tala.”  That means, “Have you heard?!”  Haha.  This is going to be impossible.  I also got casted to be an extra in a remake of Hawaii-Five – O, but I turned it down because we have to do some training in a dojo or something. 

If you ever want a taste of the celebrity life you should move to Hawaii.  They’re constantly filming stuff here.  They just filmed Predator here, and now they are doing Pirates of the Carribean.  They are casting ugly people for that one so come on down!  (my teeth would qualify)

Now that the products are out and the early adoption stage is almost complete, it’s time for the options to come back to proper pricing.  The PUTs on AAPL are still undervalued.  JAN @ 135 and alike are cheap, especially for simple leverage against a possible break in the market.  Plus, AAPL barely moved on today’s wicked rally.

With today’s big up day, go get your APPL puts.  Also, I’m scooping up two or three puts in NFLX while getting long.  I’m only getting long for a few day, just in case today’s reversal after its 2Q earnings is only a haircut. 

Market got way too shorted earlier this week, that was my mistake.  Damn that sucks.  I ended up panic buying GMCR at 29.xx.  I’ll sell this junk tomorrow for sure since I’m supposed to stick to the rule to short the bear rallies.

Today sucks.  I’m going to eat out somewhere expensive. 

Aloha!

Hi all, I just got back from a weekend conference.  It feels like eternity without any internet, but now that I’m back I can finally see what’s happening on the market.  T-Mobile has not been kind either.  I don’t know why I bother to pay for the internet add-on since it never works when it’s cloudy. 

Anyway, checking back on the market I wouldn’t feel to confident holding long this week.  That’s just me though.  A lot of other bloggers are buying this market.  I think the base is getting weaker so make sure you have at least some shorts.

Right now I’m doing research on the media industry, in particular, I want to see if REALD Inc. is a legit investment.  It’s an intersting story stock.  REALD basically owns the niche for 3-d media.  So, if you haven’t been to your local theater lately, then check it out because the latest trend is 3-d movies.  You get to watch movies wearing some heavy duty 3-d glasses (not those red and blue cereal box glasses).

Meanwhile, I see the paradox on the consumer side.  Watching a movie costs $10.  Add popcorn and drinks, and you’re spending $100 on a family of five.  Movies last about 2 hours, so that makes it $20/hour (Netflix charges $10/month).  That rate is not my idea of quality and economical family time.  Haha.  Go to the park and throw a ball.  Anyway, people will go to the movies, even if they’re broke.   Here in Hawaii, that’s all there is to do at night.  But lately, with prices rising, and paychecks declining, it’s hard to pony up an extra $5 to watch something in 3-d…

Option A:  Watch movie in 3-d, take home cool glasses, eat 3-d ramen noodles by yourself

Option B:  Watch regular movie, cruise at In-and-Out burger while complaining about how predictable the movie is with your friends.

Find the trend and trade it!

RLD $19.85  … I’m still on the fence.

Target 1:  $15 (the price of a movie ticket in 3-d)
Target 2:  $22  (price of a non-3d movie date)

Now it’s your turn to conquer the market!

After having a weekend long fiesta of sangria, paella, and Salma Hayek  I was brought to a drunken reality that in order to make it in this market, you have to have at least one or two longs to keep you sane.    My stand on this market is still bearish.  But that doesn’t mean there won’t be a bullish spot.  Tomorrow I will get long these two stocks.  I am also buying as many Spanish jerseys with their first star (for those of you who don’t know, this was Spain’s first World Cup win, which means they finally get a star on their national jersey.  Time to represent!  Brazil has 5 of those stars).   Can you imagine if Torres actually played some soccer?  At least Villa, Puyol, Casillas, Xavi, an Iniesta came to play.

Sorry for the non-investment title and post, but can you believe this guy?  Who goes out and tells ESPN that they want a 1-hour special called “The Decision” to announce to the world what team they will sign with?  Who grabs a nickname from the Bible, and pronounces or accepts the title as “The King”?  

I’ll tell you… someone who thinks too highly of himself and yet is ringless.

Give me a break.  I’m going to tune in on his announcement today just so I can see how dumb it is.  Yeah, I’m just as sheepish and dumb.  How long does it take for someone to announce their new team?  Hmmm, Michael Jordan said it in two words, “I’m Back.”  Who needs ONE HOUR?!!  This is presumptuous, and ESPN needs to take off their skirt after the show.  If Lebron doesn’t stay with the Cavs, then he just made his exit a glorious “see yah, kiss my butt, I’m going somwhere else.”  If he does stay with the Cavs, then he’ll have this reputation of creating a crusade, or like he’s trying to prophecy his heroism. 

And I don’t buy that, “I will use the proceeds from this 1-hour show of my announcement to help the Boys and Girls club.”  What a publicity front!  Why stop there?  Let’s put Lebron’s used toilet paper on eBay and use those proceeds to fight cancer. 

Anyway, I guess there’s nothing else to talk about in the NBA.  I think it’s absurd that Lebron gets his own webpage on ESPN and his own Twitter account having to deal with his signing.  All hail the King!  We are zombies.

Okay, back to real trading.  It looks like the market is serving up some beat down to the bears.  I’m still not flinching on my shorts because as I stated earlier, it’s not a good time to go 100% short in your portfolio, but you should be building towards a bigger short position (or smaller long position + neutral position).   Today was actually a good day to short.  I think tomorrow we will have a good down day at least to wipe out today’s gains.  Either tomorrow or early next week.  It’s not that promising to see trash stocks leading the market up.  For today, you may have noticed China stocks were making a run like JASO.  But when you look at the leadership in that sector, it was quite flat… BIDU closed almost neutral.  More importantly the leaders are flat today.  Carefully monitor them!  I’m waching NFLX, PCLN, AAPL, NETL, VMW, ROST, and LULU.  Only PCLN and LULU did well in that powerhouse group.  For now, just remember, do not overtrade this tape!  It’s a day-trader/short-term-swing trader’s market.  If you don’t fit those categories then lighten positions, especially if you’re uncertain on a 2-month timetable.

Okay, time to watch the Lebron show.  So, where does he go?  If he joins the Heat, do they win it all?  Does Jay-Z offer him the future of Brooklyn?  Will he ever win a championship ring, and if so, does it hurt his legacy that he needed the help of two superstars?  I hope he stays with the Cavs, but if he does go to the Bulls or Heat….

“We’ll see you in June.”  -Kobe and Co.