Finally! This is very significant for me. I’ve been waiting for these shippers to finally sink. I think of all the sectors, besides financials, the shippers have done almost the worst!
As for trading, I am now all cash. I’ve sold out on ALL my OSTK puts, which I was buying up in the 20s. OSTK is heading to $4, but I will wait for a super bear rally before re-buying puts. I thank you in advance.
I’ve been quite busy running faxes, talking to desperate clients, that want to move their money to fixed index returns. Its funny how everyone NOW is talking about risk, and want to build conservative portfolios….
Baaah!
I think opposite. Right now, I’m enjoying the panic as people start moving money around to their conservative retirement portfolios… it at least tells me that the fear is real, and that the market is churning. But then again, the numbers don’t add up for most people:
An investor who loses 15% in a single year, for instance, needs to make 18% the next year just to get back to the starting point. And if the retirement plan depends on earning an average of 10% a year, recouping those losses as well as the extra 10% would require a 29.4% one-year gain, or 13.8% in each of the next two years — returns that many advisers agree can’t be captured without taking on still more risk and volatility.
I have a lot of clients who are fresh to the market, or haven’t invested a penny in it yet. I’m trying to tell them to start reserving some money to buy the great dip to set up their IRAs. Its a tough pitch to sell, even though I’m out for their best interest.
Unfortunately, the recovery for this market and the therapy for its investors, may take many months, maybe 2-3 years of real boring trading (I hope not!). So although we may be making money on the downside, think of it as an advanced pay for the many months of boring trading as the volatility subsides and we get stuck in a multi-month channel on ALL indexes. Right now, all I can do is day trade the powerful volatility… my current strategy is to hold all cash, then wait for a day rally, either Thursday or late Friday.
We need new leaders. The old ones are done.
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There is currently no case for the market going up, except for Costanza thinking.
we DO need new leaders.
Bernake talking about inflation makes me wonder what planet he is on. We needed a 100pt cut long ago. I don’t know if this guy has a clue. I don’t see a rate cut from him until it won’t matter anymore. Thats the fed timing. They are clueless.
Bernanke and Paulson… zero…
… to….
… hero? When?
This Bailout better be a long-term solution, because obviously, it ain’t restoring any confidence in the market now.
I’m old school when it comes to fixing the market. If you have a bad business with a toxic balance sheet, let it fail. There will always be another business to emerge if there is always a demand that needs to be supplied. Money needs to be spent to help the CONSUMER that is the engine of demand. Lets see… lower their interest rates for a few years? How about 0%?
The Government has been catching falling knives everywhere.
Gio, I am right there with you. I am just now really starting to feel some actionable fear from retail investors, although it has been ramping up since early last week.
I’m not hearing anymore “Now’s the time they say you should buy. I want 10000 shares of WM. That suckers gonna get bailed out.”
Whatever the case, we must make sure that the a-holz who caused this mess stay in bidness.
Woohoo! All 4 shorts in the moolah!! CLF down 66% TGT down 20% HK down 60% WFMI down 25% ::snickers::
Bernanke isn’t looking out for the US markets… They’re a private company owned by WORLD wide bankers, (whom the fed will eventually own themselves anyways)
Why would the fed look out for us? the Fed is a business looking to make some money… literally. and they also like owning a bunch of goods too. Of course Ben’s worried about deflation first, and inflation next… Because he wants inflation first, then deflation next.
That’s the way the fed can seize the most assets.
The way it works is there’s too much credit and people live in excess, and then all of a sudden, there’s deflation and not enough cash to go around, and people can’t make the payments on everything they borrowed because there’s simply not enough cash to go around, because banks are paying interest.
Then the banks seize the assets, but the banks get stuck with all these assets, and deflation continues, and the banks fallout, and the fed steps in to “save” the day, by BUYING stuff from the banks, and buying stuff from the government with the funny money hot off the presses.
Geo, energy has been down beyond belief.Are you getting ready to pull the trigger on any of these?
Gio:
I was going to ask the same type of question Crude asked. They all look as if they have broken a multi-year large head and shoulders pattern and may just drip lower over the next few years. They have been fun over the past 18 months and I am trying to decide whether or not the sector is worth my attention once this current collapse completes or should we move on to a new sector to prey on. Thanks for your thoughts as always.
This is a little off topic, but the LA Harbor is empty. There are great areas, where there are no containers.
I guess China stopped shipping to LA, because this time of year is when the Xmas stuff comes thru the Harbor.
I guess when the bull relief rally starts in 4 to 8 days, sustainable for 6 weeks,
that makes it right around Xmas, market starts to crash again.
alphadawgg Says:
There is currently no case for the market going up, except for Costanza thinking.
We’re OVERSOLD BIG TIME____there’s $4 trillion on the sidelines—get ready for a long 6 week sustained relief bull rally____
zee
Im a merchant marine and I make china runs out of Hi but our cargo goes to Tacoma from China.Loads are getting lighter.Tacoma and SF ports still seem to be busy.
50 basis point cut….too little, way too late…Bernake comes to a fire with 1/2 a bucket of water…. This Bush administration is the greatest destroyer of wealth ever.
Geo,just picked up nov in the 28’s.Are you nibbling on any energy today?