I think the last time I checked the futures we were down about -200 points. Finally! I’ve been waiting for a big down day on the futures, which is actually a short term bullish sign.
This happened back in the end of July 2007:
… I think the Dow was down -300+ on the futures, and global markets were falling hard back in July 31, 2007.
The best case for the bulls tomorrow, from a technical standpoint, would be to open gapped down, then have that gap filled. Kind of the opposite of what happened Friday. If the Dow cannot hold 10,100… and 9,950 then expect to be in a long and drawn out and unexciting bear market. In other words, no one wins. No bulls, no bears.
If you have been long this market for over a month, then you are too late to sell. Sorry I wasn’t able to screen for double bottoms this past weekend, only because when I was reviewing some charts, I noticed the volumes on the second bottoms where consistently weak. Normally you want big big volume on the second floor, followed by a nice follow through, something that you saw earlier in January. Right now, there’s just too much weakness to be recommending to get crazy long, but at the same time, its a bad place to be short, as I do expect the Vix to eventually get back to the high 30s; and just as we’ve seen the Dow fall quite hard, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a relief rally of epic proportions… one every blog will be writing about.
Right now, I am mostly on the side, cheering the bulls to do something soon. If they don’t, stick your money in a CD account, or pay off some high % loans… at least you’re guaranteed a gain.
A hui ho!
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Much Respect!!!
How’s DJIA 9850? Low enough for ya, or should I have it lowered some more?
Barney, I still can’t believe you and Fannie CEO Mudd were mud brothers.
That’s just mind-blowing. When does that kind of thing hit the airwaves?
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Actually, I just looked it up, it was not Mudd (who is married w. four kids), but another Fannie executive, named Moses.
FYI to Dogwood on that one.
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Jake-
Credit to you for looking it up instead of just filing it away as fact.
I’m expecting a rally real soon, especially in tech. Right now all my stops were hit, so I’m back to 100% cash.
As for the intraday tape. Right now we are down -522 points. I expect today’s tape to regain about 200, so there’s a good opportunity to catch an intraday long… you just have to do the hard thing: wait.
why is it I’m the only one who’s excited by something long? I know it’s hard- oh wait, that excites me too…
Here you go again with the bulls bullshit.
Maybe you will go back to the VIX being above 40 again and that it is time for a rally?
Come on!
GO SHORT AND STAY SHORT.
We are in a bear market and who knows where the bottom is.
In less than ten days one of my major indicator’s will start to signal a MAJOR BULL RALLY in a bear market. I expect this bull rally to last 6 weeks minimum.
So, that puts the rally starting before the elections and going well past the elections.
Till then try not to get clobbered on longs.
THT,
>>If the Dow cannot hold 10,100… and 9,950 then expect to be in a long and drawn out and unexciting bear market.
I guess I am too late to sell and with above statement, I am in an long unexciting bear market. I hope things turn better sooner than later but its really good to read blogs like yours and learn. You are nicely sitting on 100% cash and this is what I should have done a while ago. Anyways, lesson of a lifetime!
Were is the VIX today? Huh? I dont hear you…. 53+ I think last time I looked.
No Bulls….No Buyers….ONLY BEARS… Grawllll..
Go Short and Stay Short…