In light of today’s report that stated spending in June rose by 0.4% and personal income dropped by 0.1%, people are getting real panicky that back to school shopping budgets might not meet expectations. After all, Americans are dipping into their savings. For most Americans, savings is something reserved for leftover food, not actual currency.
As a result, carnage is taking place in Jeffrey Macke’s sandbox, with losses, larger than life, in the following names: M, KSS, DDS, SHOO, BOOT, DECK, SSI, JWN, GPS, BKE, FRED, BIG, CONN, RH and WSM.
Macy’s, the biggest department-store company, suffered a sales downturn in July, following improving trends in late May and June, Cleveland Research said in a note. The slowdown has forced the retailer to be more aggressive with markdowns, the firm said. Nordstrom, meanwhile, is getting less of a bump from its famous Anniversary sale, according to Detwiler Fenton.
While the National Retail Federation is predicting a rise in back-to-school budgets this year, Commerce Department data from June showed that households are dipping into savings to fuel their spending. That could mean current levels can’t be maintained.
“It’s not sustainable, and items like clothing are among the first things that are going to get cut out of that spending,” said Bridget Weishaar, an analyst at Morningstar Investment Service.
Seasonally speaking, this is the trough period for retailer, heading into September, which is traditionally the absolute worst time to be long mall related names. The problem with retailers, ultimately, is two fold. Not only are they dealing with a miserly consumer; but they’re also trying to fend off the black hole that is Amazon–a company that intends to destroy the very fabric of brick and mortar and replace it with rubble.
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