[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytc0U2WAz4s 616 500]
Comments »Change is Coming
Oil is down 3 bucks and the Dow is getting steam rolled to the tune of 100+ points. Some people think this is all dollar related. However, I happen to think it is panic related. The market is taking the path of least resistance and I am simply watching my gains wilt away into losses, almost in a catatonic “deer in headlights” demeanor. Naturally, the correct trade was to jump into the FAZmobile or get short. Oh, but that shit was not for me and I’ll tell you why.
I’ve been infected with a disease called “bullshititis.” That’s right, I am a fucking raving lunatic/moron for watching this wreckage, without jumping on the bandwagon. Look, I have numerous excuses for my actions and I might end up being right. However, watching 20-30% declines in certain names is 100% unacceptable.
Since it’s a Friday and the market is giving me the business, I will not make any drastic adjustments to my portfolios. But, come Monday, barring a miraculous rally, I will be forced to make sweeping/wholesale changes to them.
It’s one thing to have confidence in a thesis and buy into it on the way down. It’s an entirely different thing to watch your house burn down and not throw water on it. I’m over here roasting marshmallows and shit, while an inferno rips through my living room. Fucking moron.
Comments »Dancing on Burlap
Although I expect to see a bounce today, I wouldn’t bet my balls on it. Pardon the vulgarity; but I’ve been hanging out with a lot of bears recently. Typically we just hang out near schools or places of worship, throwing marbles on the floor–laughing at people breaking their necks.
All jokes aside, natty looks pretty good here. Providing we get a bounce, stocks like GMX Resources Inc. [[GMXR]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] and even my little Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] will sprint, mind you, much higher.
Into today’s inevitable bounce, I like Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] and Spain, via [[EWP]] .
Comments »Death and Destruction to All and to All a Good Night
Capital losses aside, I am having a “field day” with this market sell off. It’s one thing for the bears to get all riled up when the market is lifting off. It’s an entirely different animal when this fucker is tanking, 1929 style. I must admit, I lost millions today, yet I was smiling the whole day. Perhaps I have crossed over the “rubicon line of sanity” and have become a full fledged psychopath. Or, I really love me some Karl Denninger, doom and gloom, jargon.
Tonight has the feel of an election night or a war. I can feel the anticipation in the air, as it crushes those with “low-bar” breaking points. I look forward to viewing all of the very best and bearish youtube commentary tonight, while feasting on a 5 star home cooked meal, courtesy of the venerable Mrs. Fly.
In celebration of the great return of the most horrific bear market since the ancient days of Rome, “The Fly” will keep this thread updated, throughout the night, with all of the very finest, negative commentary available on the web.
Keep the bearshit coming. What we “honest types” need is a little truth and freedom, up in this bitch, not higher stock prices. LOL!! I cannot get enough of it. I fucking love it.
UPDATE: Oh shit I have clients in Harrisburg! And, courtesy of ZH, US CDS panic mode, yet again.
UPDATE II: Aww shit. “We’re screwed- they’re screwed worse” Does it really matter anymore? Let’s have a burlap party, ya’ll.
UPDATE III: Gold is for asshats only.
UPDATE IV: “Do you remember those party hats?”
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cbf-HvjUvMU&feature=sub 616 500]UPDATE V: Fear of “Lehman Style Tsunami.”
UPDATE VI: Minnesota housing fraud EXPOSED. LOL.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01sddqnMMjw&feature=sub 616 500]UPDATE VII: Tim-dog aka “The Pit of the internet” says “It is my contention that the reality has changed”
UPDATE VIII: I meekly interrupt this bear shindig for a little bull intervention, ever so humbly of course. 10,000 apologies.
Friendly Reminder: You’re Not Qualified
Why do you care if I lose oodles of money? I’ve been doing this shit for over a decade and have survived and thrived in all sorts of fucked up markets. This one is no different.
So, I am making a call. I choose, fully aware of the homos in Greece, to be long, despite the wall of worry. Leave it up to people like Dylan Ratigan and Rick Santelli and this market will be trading just north of 30. It is my belief, and always has been, they are both misfits, totally unable to discern a rabbits ass from a donkeys. See folks, some people are meant to fuck goats in Romania, others ride horses and raze villages for sport.
How much lower will the market go?
Geez, you fucking assholes make me sick, talking so much, so fast, about “sovereign debt” and the “grave ramifications” of said debt. Did you even hear what Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] said? Are you aware that end user demand, ranging from commodities to denim at Guess?, Inc. [[GES]] is thriving again? You’re mixing up the honey with the urine, jackass. Huge declines hurt and in hindsight I should have sold more, just to be safe. However, here we are with a decision to make.
Is this sell off the 2008 variety, with all of its cancerous trimmings? Or, is this your standard, run of the mill, 10% market correction, that will soon be nothing more than a bad memory?
I can’t answer that question for you just yet. However, I will tell you, based upon the laws of The PPT algorithms, we are indeud OVERSOLD. Every single time The PPT dipped below 2.30, the market, almost to the day, surged higher, immediately thereafter. Well of course I know trends are made to be broken. I can hear what you are thinking and right now you are doubting Le market hand de Le Fly. Nevertheless, like George W. Bush, “I’m going it alone” and will “nu-ku-lar” your fucking faces, once this “mission” of mine is indeud “accomplished.”
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzxoLZXF9SI 616 500]UPDATE: I bought 10,000 [[EWP]] under $40.40, based upon my balls to brains relationship.
Comments »Crash and Hold
Here we are aboard that fucking airplane from Final Destination. I see burlap everywhere, as men with small brains and big balls make directional bets based upon the sovereign debt load of, ummm, Lithuania. For the record, The PPT has just dipped below 2.30. I knew we had another flush our coming. Well, here we are flushing away like children in the bathroom.
Commodities are being thrown down empty elevator shafts, alongside people who are long said names. If you’ve been buying the dips today, you have been taking shark bites to the face, as the slippery slope keeps getting sloppier. What is my level of confidence regarding my longs, after this sell off?
Answer: very high.
I know it sounds nuts; but I am more confident now than I was yesterday. In order to move forward, we needed a flush out. Don’t get too excited there buddy. We may drop another 5% before the market regains its composure. With my money, I am waiting until 3:55 to do some bargain shopping. Then, I will shop a little more tomorrow, providing we dip again.
It’s fucking uglier than a bear with lipstick on out there. But at least we are getting the flush out we need. I’m like George Bush and shit out here, staying the course, “going it alone,” despite that shit looking retarded to all of you ham and eggers.
Comments »Picnic Time
Futures are pointing to a gay open. Do yourself a favor and grab a blanket, three bottles of wine, grapes and a wheel of cheese. Lay the blanket out in front of the teevee, like the stupid fucking moron that you are, and watch stocks slide on CNBC, while “noshing” on your opera fare.
I will not consider any trades until 10:30, period. Fuck all of the noise, from people like Chanos and his ilk. Be patient and understand that this is not an easy game. Things are getting better; but investors are acting like pussies.
Go paint your house or some shit, then come back later.
Comments »Algorithmic Handouts
The Godly folks at iBC are working diligently on PPT 2.0. One new feature will be to identify stocks that are overbought or oversold within our system. Let’s face it, directional trading is all about emotion and momentum. A huge part of being successful is knowing when to get out of a winner, or step into a loser, with the hopes that the trend will reverse—making you (the retail misfit) look like a fucking genius. Our new overbought/sold indicator does exactly that, AND MORE.
The overbought list is fairly extensive, so I won’t bore you with that. However, the oversold list is somewhat compact. Therefore, I WILL bore you with it.
OVERSOLD (HYBRID):
OVERSOLD (TECH):
count: 7
PWND
PCY
NLR
EWT
EWP
RWF
NOTE: The PPT 2.0 will launch in late April to early May, God willing.
Comments »Financials to Die For
I own a little Citigroup Inc. [[C]] for the thrill of it. My motives are impure and I could care less about the company, truly. Some of you actually adhere to the laws and rules of proper asset management. Some of you kind gentlemen do not go “all in” on a singular earnings play, whereby an account could be “lost and tossed” with just one error. For those of you who are professionals and need to allocate capital into financials, consider the following.
Due to the current state of the banks, I propose keeping only 10% of assets in the sector and next to zero in traditional banks. Instead, go with the asset managers. You damn well know, when the markets get good, the money rolls in. That’s why mutual fund company share prices outpace the performance of their underlying funds, by a large degree. The amount of money made by asset managers is absurd. Moreover, said absurdity will only continue to get, well, more absurd, as third world trash heaps look to invest their foreign comic book style currency.
According to the ever changing laws of The PPT, Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. [[AMG]] , BlackRock, Inc. [[BLK]] and SEI Investments Company [[SEIC]] are your top picks. However, with my money, if I wanted some exposure, I’d go long a basket of names that range from conservative/staid to aggressive/retardo. Such names include: Janus Capital Group Inc. [[JNS]] , The Blackstone Group L.P. [[BX]] , Franklin Resources, Inc. [[BEN]] , [[EVR]] , Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] and U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] . Perhaps at a later date, I will explain the pros and cons of each name. But, at the moment, I am busy eating olives and crackers, while cursing at my monitor and wishing death upon my trader/servant.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_K9WtkPHrw 616 500] Comments »Market Getting CREmated
Sorry, I could not help myself. Commercial Re is getting face lifted today, thanks to stretched valuations. Names like BRE Properties, Inc. [[BRE]] , Developers Diversified Realty Corp. [[DDR]] and The Macerich Company [[MAC]] are dropping, deservedly so. If there was a place worth betting against, in my humble estimation, it is the commercial real estate sector. Those fucking stocks have run up so much, so quickly, they are due for a severe lashing. I don’t care if the economy comes roaring back; the [[IYR]] is too rich up here. Having said that, I opt to not sell it short or delve into [[SRS]] . That’s a personal decision that I am able to live with. Some of you are perfectly comfortable walking around your neighborhoods, clad in pajamas and slippers. I, on the other hand, enjoy dressing myself to look like a human being, a clean one at that.
Let me be clear: I am heavily caffeinated, at all times. My beverage routine goes something like this: coffee, red bull, coffee, coffee, monster, coffee, earl grey tea, coffee, coffee, coffee, coffee, coffee etc. In between all of that caffeine consumption, I brush my teeth about 40 times. Remember boys and girls, cleanliness is next to Godliness. Quit being so fucking disgusting; go wash your hair.
On this dip, I like Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] and SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] .
Bottom line: prepare for a two way market; but prepare to go higher, ultimately.
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