Weak Undercurrents

I am glad my personal is mostly in TNA at this point because picking individual names is like throwing darts. The PPT says just 62% of stocks are higher today. That’s hardly anything to rave about. We need a 90% day, with bears running in the streets, holding their brains in from spilling on the sidewalk below.

Until the euro-trash get their bailouts in order, the market will trade without conviction.

Over the past 3 days, the market has made gains, yet I am hardly making any money. I imagine many of you have the same issues. In the past, tech and commodities would run hard on bounces. Now it’s hit or miss with commodities and tech is dead.

If anything, gold and silver offer neutrality in this whole mess. Both bearshitter and bullshitters like the defacto reserve currency status of precious metals. One thing is for certain: this is not a market that I want to short, knowing the history of our policy makers. They are bailouts makers. Don’t bet against that, else you will be in the streets soon trying to hold your frontal lobe from falling on the dirty sidewalk below.

Exclusive.

I love the doom and gloomers out there, calling for default in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, even here in the U.S. They mask their mental illness with claims that by “taking the medicine now” we are saving our grandchildren later. Are you people fucking nuts? What you are asking for is  voluntary acceptance of a great depression. By chance, have any of you dicksuckers lived through a great depression and failure of your domestic currency?

I did’t think so.

Say what you want about moral hazard, but I’d rather give myself a fighting chance to fix things later, than guarantee my death now. Who knows, perhaps in 10 years some sort of renewable energy will be main streamed that will help spur another boom, allowing us to grow out of our problems. By asking Greece to default is equal to letting Lehman fail. Now, we all know after Lehman failed, we had to bail out AIG. If Greece is Lehman, Spain is AIG. We are going to have to deal with these problems right now, else all of the QE money, TARP funds and stimulus that has been injected into the system will be null and void, as we will descend back to the lows of 2008.

Now if you were a policy maker, does that sound like a reasonable course of action?

The problem with Greece is that it’s full of Greeks. Even if they approve austerity, their government may get voted out and then we will have to start the ham and egging process all over again.

Early going, futures are improving, which is a good sign. Like the Analyst Bomber said, ” if the stocks stop going down in the face of bad news, they are probably done going down.” I agree 100%. Should the market stop trading down in the face of bad news, we will have a tradable bottom. The situation is very fluid, as news flow dictates the money flow.

I will go into more detail tomorrow, regarding the ineptitude of the IMF and ECB. In summary, the Europeans are displaying unparalleled ignorance with regards to systemic risk. Truly, they are ostriches with their heads in the sand, oblivious to the bond markets and how willing and able risk adverse managers are going to punish them for inaction.

Not doing something this weekend was a huge mistake. This is Lehman part 2, but worse. Whole countries will fail and all of the work central banks have done over the past three years will be for nothing.

There is no fix, only fail or kick the can down the road. I am caught long because I didn’t think they were so stupid, as to ignore the harsh lessons of recent history.

As a Father, I empathize with my fellow dedicated Dad’s out there, who work hard to provide a safe, clean, and enriched environment for our children. To me, living life with the sole purpose of having fun or indulging in hedonistic adventures is pointless. When you are young, you should be planning for the future, instead of “living in the now”, as many idiots like to profess.

My children are everything for me. I don’t vacation without them and the wife and I rarely go out without their energy filled presence. They will not be kids forever and my wife and I will have plenty of time later to enjoy self-absorbed vacations without them, when they are adults.

My personal report card on how my life is progressing does not have a category for wealth, stock market success or personal possessions, even though I endeavor to succeed at all times. Get back to me in 20 years, after seeing how my children turned out, and that will be the only thing I will hang my hat on, determining personal success or failure.

Happy, Intelligent and Productive.

That’s it. I am wrapping it up. I sold out of two thorns in my side, OPEN and ALJ. With some of the proceeds, I bought AG. I’ve traded AG 4 times, each with great success. Personally, I took profits in TNAV and bought EXK.

Essentially, if the Greeks get bailed out, gold/silver goes up. If they don’t get bailed out and everyone panics, gold/silver goes up. Barring some sort of crash event, it seems like a win-win, especially at these levels.

Right now I have one stock down more than 10%, ATPG. I am down 11.5% on the name and have it on a tight leash. Second to ATPG is CLF, down 7.5%. I sold OPEN because it was down 10%. Basically, that’s my proverbial line in the sand, in order to keep things from spiraling out of control. So you know, I am down 5.5% in my WNR position and I am up 1% in my OXY.

Over in my personal, I am down 4% in TNA.

Year to date, my losses are about 8%. I am going to lend myself some room to maneuver here, trying to stay above -10%. Should I dip below -10%, I will most likely make wholesale changes.

I started a new position, buying 10,000 EXK.

Wow, that bear hunt did not go well. This morning I thought I’d be eating bear face for lunch. Instead, here I am eating another slice of humble pie. I’m barely up and this reflex rally is a fucking joke. There is NOTHING redeeming about this tape, whatsoever.

Oil is getting poleaxed and tech is in the dumps. I feel like I am being boiled slow. My losses are not horrific, yet they are piling up. I don’t want to sell everything, due to fears of missing a sharp reflex rally. I don’t want to short anything, for the same reasons. In other words, I am being boiled slow. I can see the market dumping out 5% in a day, finally forcing me to sell. On the other hand, I can also see a monster 5% rally, healing most of my wounds.

The opportunities are always the greatest when the risk is highest.

Bottom line: I am betting against a black swan type of event, since that is the higher probability trade. It is a shitty trade, but the only one available to me at the moment.

The Bose radio system is blasting this at Casa del Fly, heavy bass, on auto loop.

Some of you might have noticed the last blog on this here website was, umm, a bit on the cowardice side. It had tinges of panic and bouts of bitchery mixed in. The one prior was regarding some newly minted HEALTH NUT Fly, with regards to lifestyle. Well, there is a certain “root cause” that spun off a series of unfortunate posts here today, which can and will be easily explained in the paragraphs to follow.

You see, typically, I start my day with brushing my teeth, taking a shower, eating oats and doing pushups—in that order— without deviation. Upon entering my closet, I am instantly robed and caped, so that I might start my day. You see, this morning, I was not caped, nor robed. There was a malfunction with the mechanisms inside of my walk in closet, which caused the instant robing and caping device to malfunction. Not knowing what the consequences of such a disaster might portend, ignorantly, I said “fuck it” and went about my day as if nothing had happened.

As you know, the results were barbaric.

“The Fly” displayed cowardice on a monumental scale, while declaring new diets and metrosexual lifestlye changes that must have made many of you cringe. For that, I am deeply sorrow (Chinese form of saying sorry) and beg for your forgiveness.

However, let the record be known, YOU were not right and I was not wrong. Such talk is against nature; you do understand? Should you go about believing that you are in fact better than “The Fly”, the entire universe might get sucked into a fucking HUGH HENDRY vortex, killing everyone but, ummm, Hugh Hendry. I hope you appreciate how I am simply looking out for your best interests.

In return for my unending generosity (saving your life and the planets existence and all), I am asking for each of you to repay me in a very proper, yet Nigerian, manner. I would like you to email this article to someone who doesn’t read the site, in order to spread the word that today’s events was simply a misunderstanding. You and I shall call it “The Mother of all anomalies.”

I must be going now, as I have a HEAVILY SALTED STEAK (wink, wink) and a flask of WHISKEY waiting for me at the dinner table. After dinner, “The Fly” will drink some port, then move onto firing up the olde [sic] Keurig, where he will consume a minimum of 12 cups of coffee, whilst watching the Asian markets shatter into pieces.