Are You Man Enough to Short Here?

Ahead of Jackson Hole (August), fellow fucktards from the internets, are you man enough to sell short here? The debt cloud is thick and there seems to be no hope for Greece, Portugal or Ireland. After they fall, Spain, Italy and the entirety of South America will be next. The effect on equity markets will be catastrophic, which will lead to a tightening of credit that will squeeze corporations and American municipalities.

If I know this, all of the asshats at the IMF and World Bank do too, no?

In my estimation, the only thing that truly derails this market is GDP growth. The cards are definitely stacked against the bull camp. The economy is not weak, per se. I realize many unskilled idiots are without proper employment. Then again, that’s why they are unskilled. If you want to earn a decent living in this country, bring your fucking A game or go home crying on your food stamps debit card. Western economies will still grow by 2% in 2011, despite high unemployment and a fucked up real estate situation. If you look at the Dow 30 components’ forward multiples, they are all low double digits, some high single digits. Understand, this is incredibly cheap, on a historical basis. It’s really, really hard for me to be bearish here, based on the fundies.

Based on momentum, I do not like the recent action in commodities. Over the past three months, most commodities, sans sugar, have been poleaxed. We keep ebbing between hyper inflation and severe deflation. It’s totally and unequivocally retarded the way investors are placing macro-bets. One week bonds dive, the next soar. Sooner or later, the market is going to have to pick a theme. It’s either the Western economies print more to get out of their mess, or accept austerity and sovereign failure, which in turn will lead to currency failure, to some degree.

The choice is pretty simple, when approaching this with logic and without idealism.

What are you going to do?

In other newz, it’s Woodshedder’s 1000th post!

The market always gets clawhammered when I am away. Before heading out, the market was docile and I was vacillating between up and down. At the end of the day, there was an epic rout in refinery related stocks, helping crush me to the tune of 2.5%. It would have been worse, if not for my large position in CLF and 11% cash position. Additionally, two top 5 positions of mine, BGC and CY, were barely down.

June has been a shitty month, just like last year. The key to this market, and I will adhere to the trend, is the June jobs report. Should those numbers come in fucked up, I am bearish on the tape. Until then, my approach will entail long only positions, coupled with large cash positions for buying blood.

Providing the most horrific thing possible does not occur this weekend (as you know, ANYTHING could happen), I will be buying UCO amd EXK, in size. And, I will be putting together my semiconductor buying list for July.

With regards to the refiners: today’s sell off was absurd. 321 spreads are still above $24 and the rip between Brent and WTI is still 15%. People are putting the carriage before the horse on the sector. Selling down HOC by 10%, on no tangible news, is ridiculous. I will be adding to my WNR position on Monday, as I am supremely bullish on the earnings potential.

I’m cutting out soon to attend my son’s graduation ceremony. I see the market sucking dick and all I can think of “it was a good week.” I made more than 10% this week; what more can I ask for? I try to ignore the bullshit, whilst snacking on random items. So what the market is down 100!? Didn’t you know the weekend is coming? Geez, anything can happen, literally. For all we know, 0.15% of the Greek population might take to the streets demanding more free shit.

Look you, I have very little patience for people who think small. I’m not into every tick like I used to. Believe me when I say “people evolve as traders.” I used to be you, but now I’m me. See how that works? Winshippery.

I must say, I’ve been without alcohol or caffeine for 3 weeks now and feel better than ever. Part of me believes coffee is a fucking poison, like cigarettes, fucking with peoples chemistry. The other part wants to drink an entire pot of coffee, chased by a jug of wine. “The Fly” is stronger than you and is immortal, so don’t try to rebuke any of my assertions.

Oh, by the way, I got TZOO coming out of my ears in my personal account. That stock wants to rip heads off and shit down necks, in that order. Also, while eating oatmeal (NO SUGAR, NO MILK-HORSE STYLE), I added to DHI. The homies have bottomed.

Have a great day and try to avoid muderholes, best you can.

Understand it is the job of news anchors to lure viewers with sensationalism. Often times they are able to drum up emotions in people that lead to mistakes. I am not suggesting you should stick your head in the sand and become a recluse. Instead, moderate the amount of soap opera style news you consume and enrich your information flow with venues like 12631. I cannot praise the work of ChessnWine and Ragin Cajun enough. They truly do a magnificent job.

I’m not expecting a huge move today, ahead of the “ominous weekend.” Ooh, everyone is so scared of the weekend because “anything can happen.” Fucking dickheads.

Copper is trending higher; keep your eyes on that.

The path of least resistance is to print more money. If my good friend “CEMENT HEAD” (CH) was around, he’d tell you the same shit.

All in all, the ORCL numbers were just fine and MU is a company filled with dicksuckers. It is not a surprise to see them get the “homo-hammer” this morning. Nevertheless, after this little run, I intend to start buy semis and do so with intense ferocity–hungry mountain lion trapped inside of a room filled with CNBC anchors style (CHOMP).

Note the intra-day 2.52 level reached today.

They played you like a cheap fiddle, drawing you into the vortex with this morning’s SPR release. Your dog sized brain bought TZA in size, thinking “oh boy, this is it. They world is going to explode.” Then, all of a sudden, as you watched in horror, gyros starting flying your way, catapulted from abroad. The news read “Greece and EU/IMF strike deal for austerity plan” and your heart stopped beating.

See folks, this is what you get for fucking around with the established elite. You are fighting a losing battle. Might I add, The PPT is firmly wired into the machinations of the important money flow. Hence, today’s unrivaled OVERSOLD call won again.

I like the stocks that I own here, as well as the semis. They are cheap and should be bought throughout the month of July.

For the day, I extended my winship, up another 0.8%–putting my year to date gains at around 3%.

I bought 15,000 TKLC- new position.

I am completely immune to the market here, as I am on fucking fire. With the market down almost 200, I am down less than 0.4%. I am heavily positioned in CLF, WNR and cash. I own decent amounts of BGC, TZOO, CY and EXK too. However, for the most part, I am all CLF and WNR.

I bought EXK today, knowing I am early. I am tempted to get long oil too, via UCO. But I’d rather buy it after another flush to the high $80’s. The release of oil is a complete joke; you need to understand that. It’s purely political and has zero ramifications on the demand/supply relationship of crude. The amount released is equal to 1.5 days of consumption, so there.

My preferred long oil vessel is UCO. I am no longer bullish on oil equities; it’s too hard. I’d rather play the commodity itself.

Keep in mind, I am not particularly bullish right now, despite my demeanor. However, I am very much interested in buying dips and selling rips.

At the moment, my cash position is 11%.

I bought 50,000 EXK, because I can.

Believe it or not, The PPT is flagging OVERSOLD again. But wait, it gets better.

ZSL is also flagging OVERBOUGHT. Had you bought ZSL when The PPT flagged OVERBOUGHT, you lost 15% of your money 12 out of 13 times. The obvious play is to go long SLV, AGQ or silver related names. Also, USO is flagging OVERSOLD on our new 3,6 and 12 mo algo (still in beta). The track record is almost flawless, with USO advancing 12 of 13 times for an average gain of 4.76%. It’s worth noting, both are 10 day holds.

As a result of the Overall Hybrid OS, I added to my TZOO position. And, I have multiple buy orders in place, ready to be executed.