ANOTHER WAR LOOMS

I am not flippe flopping again to bearish. I am simply cautious. I went to cash at the open and just started buying stocks again now, opting to not trade and chop myself up to pieces. Some of you complain about the tenor of my trading and when I slow it down by not trading — I am accused of being an Uber or a Doordash work slave.

I was expecting to be up around 60bps this morning because I had $SMCI into an earnings beat; but when markets opened up I only harvested 20bps and that was my warning to step away. More often than not, it’s a good idea to go to cash after the open and then dive back in later in the afternoon.

After all, the proof is in the pudding, with my gains being superior to yours, always calm and collected and rarely. if ever sad about my performance.

As of right now, I have 60% cash, some risk averse stocks, some $ZIM and $SMCI and a $SQQQ hedge. My goal is to have a low beta in order to secure the +5.2% gain for January.

On the geopolitical front, we have a war looming with Iran over the drone strike that killed 3 American soldiers. We can argue about why Americans were there in the first place and how the poor Iranians were just trying to get us to stop bombing Gazans. It will do us no good, as we are not in positions of power to stop these things. All we can do it helplessly look on as our leaders draw us ever closer to an apocalyptic scenario — devils really. I suspect any incursion into Iran will GIGA-SPIKE crude, so be on the lookout for that and it’s probably a good idea to be long oil just in case. Gold and $BTC are back on the menu as well.