18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,427 Blog Posts

I Cannot Be Fooled

The tell was the US 10yr continuing to get pounded into dust, yields shooting up to nearly 4% for the session — coupled with the fact that tech is weak and the entire rally is weak all things considered.

I locked in gains of 190bps and moved to cash and then nibbled on just a little UVIX — just in case we truly collapse today — which I place at 15% chance. I remain fully long in Quant and my Algo driven accounts and should the market turn higher again — both will do exceedingly well.

However, after such a rout in markets — to have such a tepid rally is dangerous. Remember, there are scores of people out there dying to get out and will sell at the first sign of weakness. We have that weakness now and should markets continue lower — this small downturn will become a large one.

Best case scenario, we moderate and base out until 2pm and then get RIGGED higher in a classic freedom candle manner.

I place the odds of that happening at 12.5%.

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