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Yearly Archives: 2018

Raising Cash — Reshuffling the Chairs on the Deck

Listen to me. I sold FAS and APPF for a 2% and 5% profit. My cash is now 30%. I have a goal to reach 50%, so that I can cavort and sashay near the beach (no homo) for the balance of the summer without a care in the world.

That might sound like the words of a coward, but understand the market isn’t making a lot of sense now. Sure, its going up and that’s great — but it’s chaotic.

Plus, 75% of my investable money is fixed in the Quant strategy and doesn’t change with my emotions. That’ll be rebalanced on the first of every month, adhering to fundamental disciplines that have escaped many of you for a long time.

How about this for using fundies as a guide to long term gains. Using a fundamental screen in Exodus, I profiled what a loser and winner looked like the past year. The losers produced a loss of 31%, the winners +49%. Notice anything striking?

Profile of a winner: PE 25x, earnings growth +28%, P/S 3x, Rev growth 11.9%, FCF $115m, Gross Margins +49%

Profile of a loser: PE: 16x, earnings growth -10%, P/S 1.5x, Rev growth +7%, FCF $163m, Gross margins +41%

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Retail is Back — You’re Either in Or You’re Out

You people are always talking shit about the mall. I’ve been a huge supporter of American retail. Anyone who knows me understands my delicate relationship with shopping malls, being a regular at the King of Prussia mall and other locales that befit Mrs. Fly and her many caprices.

While most fixate on tech and whether Twitter is shadow banning conservatives, the mall is alive and thriving. Hell, aside from the SAAS returns this year, retail is right behind it — sporting +20% YTD gains.

So what stocks to buy? This is simple. Get into Exodus and sort by Sharpe ratio and our technical algorithms and voila. Let me show you the results.

Apparel

Discount/Variety

Department Stores

Specialty/Retail

There are others, like FIVE — which has been on an unbelievable run. But it didn’t pass our minimum grading for our technical algos. If anything, let this post serve as a reminder to keep retail on your radar.

I am presently long BOOT, DECK and M.

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Morning Poppers (Trump Takes On $TWTR Edition)

Morning lads

I just got done walking my coyote and we ran into a pack of deer who were gently grazing on some grass. My coyote almost had an aneurysm and nearly unleashed herself in a fit of unbridled rage. Amusingly, the deer just moved back a little and stared. Those are pretty stupid animals.

The President is taking on @Jack and Twitter this morning for shadow banning republican voices. It’s an interesting subject to tackle, especially since it’s well know that Twitter censors whoever they want, whenever they want to. It’s interesting because — what does Trump think he can do about it? Publicly shame them into submission?

Shares of TWTR are down 3% in the pre-market.

Today is all about FB, however, and how they’re going by the way of Myspace. It’s over fellas — pack up your bags — the company is finished. Meanwhile, the stock is still up from a few month’s ago, even after this 20% “dip.”

Nasdaq futures are -100, mostly FB related.

Here are this morning’s movers.

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:
  • BPI +18.7%, AAN +9.6%, XLNX +9.5%, UAA +9%, BEAT +7.8%, AMD +6.4%, BTI +5.9%, GNC +5.9%, DDE +4.8%, CTXS +4.4%, IIN +4.1%, MDLZ +3.9%, AQ +3.7%, DHI +3.7%, VLY +3.7%, APD +3.3%, CMCSA +3.3%, AXTI +3.2%, DDR +3.2%, TEF +3.2%, SU +3%, SNN +3%, VAR +2.9%, ALLY +2.9%, SPB +2.8%, ALXN +2.6%, MPLX +2.5%, WPG +2.2%, IVZ +2.2%, RS +2.2%, AZN +2%, AGN +2%, BWA+2%, YNDX +2%, LM +1.8%, MLM +1.8%, CX +1.6%, KRA +1.5%, ARR +1.5%, TSCO +1.5%, IP +1.3%, GLOP +1.2%, SXCP +1.2%, CUBI +1.1%, FTI +1.1%, RTN +1%, SFS +0.9%, CELG +0.9%, ICLR +0.8%, BMY +0.8%, PAG +0.8%, MCD +0.8%

M&A news:

  • SVU +63.8% (to be acquired by United Natural Foods (UNFI) for $32.50 per share in cash, or approximately $2.9 billion)
  • ARNC +10.1% (WSJ report suggests PE interest)
  • QCOM +6% (NXP Semi proposed acquisition by Qualcomm (QCOM) officially terminated) .

Other news:

  • BCEI +4.5% (Bonanza Creek Energy will replace Capella Education in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the open on Wednesday, August 1)
  • MPLX +2.5% (increases quarterly dividend)
  • WSC +2.1% (prices upsized common stock offering of 8 mln shares of common stock at $16.00/share)
  • ATNX +1.4% (Phase 3 studies, KX-AK-003 and KX-AK-004, achieve primary endpoints)

Analyst comments:

  • CDTX +2.4% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • FB -20.2%, NLSN -16.5%, KNX -13.3%, MHK -11.7%, NGD -10.5%, TPX -10%, TAL -8.9%, CCJ -7.5%, NXPI -7.4%, TSEM -7.3%, NOK -6.9%, MAT -6.4% (also announces reduction of over 2,200 positions, representing 22% of global non-manufacturing workforce, as well as planned sale of manufacturing sites in Mexico), ALGT -5.9%, ABMD -5%, QEP -4.8%, IMAX -4.8%, PYPL -4%, NVCR-3.9%, F -3.8%, SPOT -3.8%, ALK -3.7%, RDS.B -3.6%, SNBR -3.5%, KEX -3.2%, RDS.A -3.1%, STAY -3%, FFIV -3% (also initiates implementation of restructuring program — includes reduction in force program affecting approximately 230 employees), CDE -2.9%, MO -2.9%, AEM -2.6%, GGG -2.6%, SB -2.6%, ABX -2.5%, PHM -2.3%, GILD -2.2% (also CEO stepping down), EFX -2.1%, ARD-2.1%, DEO -2%, VAC -2%, ALGN -1.9%, PX -1.7%, HP -1.6%, KS -1.6%, GG -1.6%, CME -1.5%, MPWR -1.4%, EME -1.4%, RJF -1.3%, PRLB -1.3%, BANR -1.2% (also to acquire Skagit Bancorp in immediately accretive transaction), DNKN -1.2%, LKQ -1.2%, CCMP -1%, TRN -1%, LAZ -1%, FOE -0.8%, ROIC -0.7%, FARO -0.7%, BAX -0.7%, AAL -0.7%, .

M&A news:

  • NXPI -7.4% (NXP Semi proposed acquisition by Qualcomm (QCOM) officially terminated)
  • UNFI -7.4% (SVU to be acquired by UNFI for $32.50 per share in cash, or approximately $2.9 billion) .

Select FB/Tech related names showing weakness:

  • CLDR -4.2%, TWTR -3.6%, SNAP -3%, TWLO -1.9%, BOX -1.9%, QQQ -1.4%, GOOGL -1.3%, AMZN -1.3%, ZUO -1.2%, DBX -1%

Other news:

  • BIIB -10.1% (Biogen & Eisai (ESALY) Announce Detailed Results Of Phase II Clinical Study Of BAN2401 In Early Alzheimer’s Disease — BAN2401 demonstrated a dose-dependent reduction in amyloid plaques as measured by amyloid PET )
  • TAL -9.4% (lower after Muddy Waters releases another cautious report and ahead of earnings tomorrow)
  • NBRV -9.1% (commences $50 mln common stock offering)
  • SVRA -6.8% (provides an update on the clinical development and commercial preparatory efforts for its lead product candidate Molgradex; proposed public offering of common stock; size not disclosed)
  • VCYT -6.5% (prices offering of 5 mln shares of common stock at $10.25 per share)
  • FND -4.5% (following MHK results),
  • X -3.8% (President Trump & EU Commission President Junker press conference)
  • AKS -3.4% (President Trump & EU Commission President Junker press conference)
  • TTD -3.4% (following MHK results)
  • EYPT -3.3% (presents ‘positive’ twelve month efficacy and safety data supporting the Company’s YUTIQ 0.18 mg three-year micro-insert for noninfectious posterior segment uveitis; files for approx 49.46 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • SRPT -3.3% (notified by the Research Institute at Nationwide Children’s Hospital that they received a clinical hold letter from the FDA)
  • EYE -2.3% (prices secondary offering of 14,447,698 shares of common stock at $39.75 per share)
  • GSK -1.7% (reports negative outcome of the FDA Advisory Committee on mepolizumab for the treatment of COPD patients on maximum inhaled therapy)
  • BE -1.4% (after IPO closed nearly 70% higher on the day)
  • ACIU -1.3% (presents Phase 2 data analysis from ABBY and BLAZE trials for crenezumab at AAIC; says data provides “strong evidence” for engagement of the principle Abeta target)
  • WPZ -1.3% (Williams Partners and Crestwood announce major expansion of the Jackalope Gas Gathering System and associated Bucking Horse gas processing facility in the Powder River Basin)
  • MMSI -0.9% (prices 3.5 mln share offering at $54.00/share )

Analyst comments:

  • HMNY -7.5% (downgraded/assumed to Hold at Maxim Group)
  • DDD -4.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray)
  • ELF -2.3% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer)
  • GILD -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird)
  • SKX -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)

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Nasdaq Futures Plunge After $FB Miss; Corporate Fascism Continues to Gain Momentum

Facebook is down more than 20% in the after-hours, following an atrocious earnings miss. I will not attempt to analyze the numbers or make predictions on the stock, since that feckless narrative has proven to be a waste of time. How many times have people declared NFLX, GOOGL, AAPL, and TSLA dead over the past 5 years?

Stop making predictions.

That said, you should know Nasdaq futures are down a harrowing 1.6%, while the Dow is slightly higher. We will have a split market tomorrow, juxtaposed between techFAGS and real economy brick and mortar. I suspect my retail stocks will fair well, while some of my SAAS related names will trade off. Reason being, FB is a major holding for a lot of funds. Said funds will be liquidating tomorrow and lowering their risk profiles, which might mean a broad sell off in a number of names. Bear in mind, the market is based on fundamentals, but the short term swings are largely psychological.

Speaking of which, I found this interview interesting, between Entertainment Weekly and a Facebook executive, addressing the ‘fake news’ scourge. It seems corporate fascism is gaining momentum and even though Zuckerberg has pushed back against government shills who want complete censorship, I suspect resistance is futile. They will have their way, one way of another.

Facebook executives promoting their video-on-demand service got into a combative exchange with reporters while at the Television Critics Association’s press tour in Beverly Hills on Wednesday. The issue: the presence of right-wing conspiracy site Infowars and Fox News on the social network’s platform.

The kerfuffle started when Fidji Simo, Facebook’s vice president of video, was asked about Infowars stories on their platform while touting new Facebook Watch entertainment shows.

“To be totally transparent, I find Infowars to be absolutely atrocious,” Simo replied. “That being said, we have the hard job of balancing freedom of expression and safety. So the way we navigate that is we think there’s a pretty big difference between what is allowed on Facebook and what gets distribution. So what we’re trying to do is make it so that if you are saying something that’s untrue on Facebook — you’re allowed to say it as long as you’re an authentic person and you adhere to our community standards — but we’re trying to make it so it doesn’t get that much distribution .… We don’t always get it right, as you can imagine, it’s very complicated, but that’s sort of our principle for dealing with information.”

Reporter: How do you limit distribution?

“When we have something that we think — that a fact checker has told is probably not true, or a lot of our audience is telling us is not true, we just limit distribution. We tell our algorithms that this is probably not something we want to see distributed widely. So that’s one way. Another way, a lot of how misinformation spreads, is by people sharing the content.… We actually pop up a module that says, ‘Hey you’re about to share something our fact checker thinks is inaccurate, you may not want to do that.’ That decreases distribution very dramatically, north of 80 percent, that’s very effective at reducing the spread of it.”

Reporter: One of the most prominent organizations you’re working with is Fox News, and they’re sort of incorrigible about proliferating a lot of misinformation. Can you speak to your reasoning behind that? Why would you want to work with an organization like that when, as you said, you’re trying to limit the spread of false information?

At this, Rick Van Veen, head of global creative strategy at Facebook, jumped in: “Yeah, well, given that we have limited time. I’d like to keep it — Fidji and I don’t lead the news organization. Campbell Brown leads that…”

Another reporter in the background: Answer the question!

“We have limited time —”

Another reporter: We’ll give you time!

Simo: “We have a range of new shows we’re presenting —”

Reporter: But Fox News is still on every day, including the weekends on this programming list.

Simo: “So is CNN —”

This was met by some chortles in the crowd, presumably because they don’t think CNN and Fox News are remotely compatible when it comes to accuracy.

Simo: “We are really trying to show a range of programming that shows the range of the political spectrum.”

I think it’s all wonderful. Chinese styled propaganda and information control might be nice. Think about it. No more flat- earth retards or people annoying you with conspiracy theories. Moon hoax-homosexuals.

Personally, I like to drown myself inside leather-bounded classics, and have found peace in ignoring the news. I come here and shitpost to my black heart’s delight, bank some coin in stocks, run my software business, and visit the beach whenever I can — drinking gimlets every step of the way.

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THE MADMAN MIGHT’VE DONE IT — ZERO TARIFFS FOR ALL

UPDATE:
White House confirms agreements; EU will import more soybeans; U.S. will reassess existing tariffs on steel and aluminum; U.S. will hold off on future tariffs (281.28 +2.40)

President Trump and EU Commission President Junker agreed to work towards zero tariffs, barriers, and subsidies on non-auto industrial goods. The E.U. agreed to reduce trade barriers on soybeans and chemicals. EU will strengthen commitments to import more liquefied natural gas.

“We agreed to establish a dialogue on standards. As far as agriculture is concerned, the European Union can import more soybeans from the U.S., and it will be done. And we also agreed to work together on the reform of the WTO. This, of course, is on the understanding that as long as we are negotiating, unless one party would stop the negotiations, we will hold off further tariffs, and we will reassess existing tariffs on steel and aluminum.”

This also includes the retaliatory tariffs that the E.U. placed on U.S. goods such as cigarettes, steel, boats, motorcycles, and agriculture.

Except China of course. We need to jack those taxes up 5,000%. But negotiations with the EU appears to going well, thanks to the Morton’s Fork offered by his excellency. Either you abide by his rules and fulfill the needs of the empire, else we’ll let Russia invade your countries and steal your young.

“We agreed today first of all to work together towards zero tariffs, zero nontariff barriers and zero subsides for the non-auto industrial goods,” Trump said Wednesday.

Market did the olde 3:30 Ramp today, adding all of its points gained in he final hour. True fuckery at its finest.

How’d I do?

My Quant portfolio, where I keep 75% of my investable dollars, soared by 2.1% — thanks to USNA.

My trading account jimmied higher by 1.7%, thanks to OSTK, FIVN, and DECK.

I cannot be stopped again.

The reactions from Twitter.

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Trump to Slap Foreign Car Imports with 25% Tax — American Auto Stocks REKT

The executive branch should not have carte blanche powers over trade. This is sheer lunacy. GM missed earnings this morning, based off a sharp increase in raw commodities and fucked up FX crosses in Brazil — but the real carnage in the sector today is due to a rumor that Trump is set to slap foreign car imports with a 25% tariff.

For the record, this will NOT induce me to buy shitty American cars. I am grateful for the Germans and the Japanese, for their ability to create great cars. Both Ford and GM can eat a dick.

As a result, the auto sector is in ruins today. Take a look at some of this pin action.

Trucks:

WNC -3.2%
DSKE -6%
USX -4%
YRCW -3%

Auto Parts:

DAN -10.5%
AXL -6.2%
CVGI -4.6%
ADNT -4.5%

Recreational Vehicles:

PII -13%
LCII -6%
WGO -5%
HOG -4%

Auto Dealerships:

LAD -12%
RUSHA -5.5%
AN -5%
GPI -4.5%

Auto Manufacturers:

FCAU -14%
GM -7%
F -4%
TM -1.5%

Separately, the much maligned TSLA is higher by 1% for the session.

There is a disruption in the matrix.

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Before You Buy More Stocks, GET YOUR AFFAIRS IN ORDER

When I used to review client portfolios, I was always astounded by the shit in them. They were hoarding stocks like collectibles, buying trends, or anything that appealed to them at the moment. The net result was a portfolio that wasn’t built for success, a heap of shit that needed to be unwound. Most client portfolios that I review were like dirty garages.

Is your portfolio a shitty garage filled with junk?

How about this. Instead of buying XYZ today because “it looks good”, GET YOUR AFFAIRS IN ORDER and cull some of those losers. Or better yet, sell the stocks that you bought for a catalyst that never panned out. You might’ve bought XYZ because of a pending earnings call or maybe a news event that never quite gave you the explosion to the upside that you endeavored to enjoy. The only reason why you’re still in the stock is because you’re too god damned immature to realize you’re holding onto your ego, which is working counter to your financial goals.

Go ahead and read that paragraph over. Matter of fact, print it out and keep it handy.

I, myself, find my positions in my trading account to be both redundant and spread thin. At the same time, I am tempted, on a continuous basis, to buy more stock — the never-ending sojourn into the wilderness of finance in search of freedom.

My mindset has now switched from hunter to farmer, and I will now begin a campaign to manage my current positions in an effort to increase my control over a portfolio that has swelled in both dollar amount and quantity of holdings. I want to reduce my positions to about 10, raising a significant amount of cash in the process. I feel like trading small, not due to cowardice or lack of gumption, but because the market feels heavy and risk assets aren’t exactly off to the races, in spite of all time highs.

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Trump Continues to Pursue Twitter Diplomacy — China is the Devil

I demonize China all the time, mostly for laughs. Truth is, I should be grateful for that crazy country, for lowering the cost of goods I enjoy and for being hard working, industrious, people who create great cuisine. I understand why Trump is fucking with them. It’s a flaccid attempt to deliver on his many campaign promises — sticking it to China.

But does this help his case? I’m not a billionaire and I certainly could never become President — but demonizing people rarely, if ever, works during negotiations, especially with those who are very proud and stubborn.

And here he is discussing the EU.

Trade deficits aren’t exactly bad, especially when the shit being made in China is by American companies. The global supply chain isn’t like it was during the 1600’s and Trump knows that. When I read stuff like this, I really want to believe markets can’t handle too much more of it and get worried about downside action. I do not believe people believe the trade war with China will last. How could it?

But what if it does?

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RARE EVENT: A Half Inebriated Post by Le Fly on a Work Night

Toys and games are one of the top sectors over the past week. What kind of bullshit summer tape is this? I just got through with a late dinner. I went over to the local farm store (there’s a lot of those near me) and bought a few pounds of grass fed chop — anything to the contrary seems unseemly. I’m sure the corn fed stuff is just fine; but I’ve programmed myself to believe labels on food mean healthier food. I suppose this train of thought stems from an innate fear of death. Although, if we were talking to just one another in private, I’d tell you that I do not fear death and almost welcome it. I’m fatalistic in that regard. You can only die once. Cowards die thousands of times.

I’ve been drinking tonight, something I normally don’t do on work nights. It started off with a three shot gin gimlet and now I’m drinking this brown ale that tastes like malta. Persons of latin persuasion will know what I mean.

Futures are soft and I guess it’s time to accept the fact that toys and games is all this summer has to offer. The trade war and all of the other stuff seems to be keeping this market down. If the economy is really on pace for a +4.8% GDP quarter, we should not be subjected to any meaningful pullbacks.

If you’re concerned about the fate of the SAAS sector — don’t be. Sales are ramping so fast — valuations are cheaper now than last year.

I’m gonna chase the tiger, and grab him by his tale.

Nite

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MEGA CAP NERDS GET REVENGE — MARKET ROTATION PUNISHES SMALL CAPS IN HEAVY HANDED ROUT

You got 1 day to enjoy and it was today. Those who had the gumption, and the internal fortitude, to risk assets in smaller capped named have dominated for 6 months. Only today did the mega-capped FANNGfags reassert their dominance. My sense, this will be short lived — short like their cocks.

Returns for the day, sorted by market cap

Over $100b: +0.80%
$50-100b: +0.41%
$10-50b: -0.17%
$5-10b: -0.52%
$1-5B: -0.83%
Under $1b: -0.96%

You weren’t special today, or especially smart — just lucky. Do not inflate the depths of your black ego, for tomorrow another reversion shall commence and your safe haven will be ripped from crown to root and tossed into shambles.

Rotations do happen and I will allocate into it, should it become a trend. But one day doesn’t make a trend, nor does a singular day make a brave warrior out of a coward who’s been running way and hiding inside his FAANG mobile.

Cheers to the new highs and the fun times we had getting here. But fuck today, seriously.

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