iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
16,986 Blog Posts

These Are the Very Best of Times

I was at dinner last night at a very fashionable sushi restaurant, in an area that is almost rural. The line was long and the wait even longer. It took 45 minutes to be seated, so I went to the bar and ordered a few martinis. The bartender took her shaker tin and liberally spilled a cartoonish amount of premium vodka in it, nearly ruining an otherwise simple drink.

The restaurant was expansive and looked out of place in the neighborhood I was visiting. Gray and white marble draped nearly every inch of the walls and rustic black slate blanketed the floors — running through what must’ve been 10,000 square feet. River stones and tiny pebbles trimmed the marble and gigantic whorehouse mirrors festooned the walls downstairs next to the bathrooms. It was an elaborate and expensive set up, something I’d expect to see in Philly or NYC, but not 2 minutes outside pastoral rolling hills and working farms of central New Jersey.

Markets reach new highs highs on a daily basis and a new form of wealth has emerged with cryptocurrencies, now amounting to $175 billion in market cap, aka real money. There’s no denying that future generations will reflect upon these times and equate them with the decadence displayed during the roaring 20s. It’s always hard to appraise in real time, without the benefit of hindsight. But can anyone deny the fact that wealth is at record highs, alongside record levels of debt, alongside record levels of uncertainty for the future?

I’ve witnessed several boom to bust cycles in my lifetime and I’ve never seen such glibness, nonchalant superficiality, like I see now. One of my favorite follows on Twitter is @RampCapitalLLC, who spends his days discussing the fertile lands of Wall Street and the fruit he intends to devour thanks to it. He is unapologetic in his pursuit of Dow 1 million, bathing himself in the nectar of extreme extravagance and ornamenting himself with his very own wheeled chair, in spite of being well and able bodied enough to run marathons.

We are living through the most interesting of times. The phrases BOMB N. KOREA and BOMB IRAN produce praise on Twitter — because they’re a hateful group of people who get in the way of our dreams. We’re invincible, a generation of do nothing wastrels presiding over a broken ATM machine that keeps spitting out $100 bills. We don’t even call bubbles bubbles anymore, instead unicorns, because it rolls off the tongue better and reminds us of childhood fairytales that made us sleep better at night.

We can’t lose. We’re asleep and reality is someone else’s problem, maybe an unfortunate in Puerto Rico, Syria or Iraq, which we’ll gladly help out with catch phrases and $5 donations through one of the many apps on our $700 phones.

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16 comments

  1. heckler

    Good post Fly. Ultimately we are fucked. Just trying to make a little scratch in the meantime.

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  2. kidstock

    Intesesting times indeed…many businesses that started 5-8 years ago are opening second or third location.

    Banks are loosening lending standards but unsecured credit is difficult to obtain and / or expensive with rates in excess of 25% on short-term money.

    Very early innings. Lots of 1H17 business was delayed bc of excessive rain this Spring. Q4 GDP will be 4%+.

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  3. hedge500

    http://pro.creditwritedowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/Dow-Bear-Rally-1.png

    Check out the price action up until October ^ interestingly similar to today

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  4. rothko

    hi. anyone have the link to Fly’s old blog? I was reading it and lost the link. Thanks..

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  5. soupbone

    Next time you drive by it will have turned back into a mortuary.
    Never wait in line.

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  6. narwhal

    Where can you find an iPhone for only $700?

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  7. ironbird

    These are the very best of quickening times.

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  8. MSGT HARTMAN

    And the day traders and market timers have been shellacked, poor pitiful souls who lost out on the chance to make big bucks. Instead it’s the dip buyers and holders who are showered with cash, the investor, Mr. John Q 401k, Granny with MCD and her index funds all laughing at the “pros”.

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  9. moosh

    How much scared mullah is still on the sidelines? Bears worst nightmare next couple years.

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  10. acehood

    Just remember, Fly. When you can make the rules up as you go, you can never lose. Know what I’m saying?

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  11. cancel19

    The payback is gonna be so Awesome!

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  12. fryguy15

    The market will go up until the millennials buy it.

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  13. joyous__ending

    I don’t see a bubble (outside of bitcoin), the risk seems geo-political. 1999-2000 was about margin and fake IPOs. 2008 loan leverage.
    1987 was also a geo-political crash, the market started to sell off on fears of the dollar, trade wars, and even Iran (we blew up an Iranian oil platform on the Friday before the crash, lookup Operation Nimble Archer).
    I don’t think Iran can do jack right now to trigger conflict, North Korea could easily do something stupid like land a missile or torpedo on a target that brings retaliation.

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  14. bob smith

    “I don’t see a bubble …”

    Where have I heard that before? Of course you don’t see the ‘bubble’. If the marginal trader saw what is happening… it wouldn’t happen. That is what drives the bubble… blind people listening to and following other blind people.

    Of course we have to rationalize past bubbles to justify current bubbles. That’s what drives the “this time is different’ meme. That doesn’t change the outcome.

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