The significance of this recent downturn should not be discounted. The MSCI is officially in a bear market–representing the sixth over the past 30 years. Very soon you will all bathe in wanton profits, become forgetful of the ruin you faced last week, and ignore the warning that was given to you here, by a Space Alien Magician (SAM).
Saying “sell the rallies” is a very generic and overarching statement. The question that is most important is “at which point during the rally should we sell?”
There is going to be fervent race for risk assets very soon. As you can see, already, SPY futs are trending higher.
For the month, the NASDAQ is off by 5.87%, in line with my 2008 and 2009 analogue. The upside in February is likely limited to 2%; but it’s very likely we’ll rally like bats out from hell come March. Starting in the month of March, the time of year when lads from the countryside drink themselves retarded under the sigil of St. Patrick, I am anticipating a gorilla raping run of 8-15%, which may last for almost 3 months.
A bull market of sorts awaits us, which will be laden with cocaine themed Wall Street parties and corks of champagne fired into the faces of the non-believers.
Near the very apex of the rally, half gorilla, half cro-magnon men will appear on the television to declare “the end of the bear market” giving the ‘all is clear’ sign, just before their brokerage accounts get detonated by the TNT of their own stupidity.
The respite you will soon enjoy will be matched with a misery not seen since the dark ages, beginning in the latter part of May. All long positions should be sold by late April to early May.
In the interim, try to enjoy this small pocket of pleasure, a token offering from the Gods, but remember the pain you felt last week while drinking yourselves to sleep.
Into this run, both FANG and TWDFM (these will definitely fuck me: TWTR, WYNN, DB, FCX, M) should work their way higher.
As for me, I’ll stick to the SPY buy programs generated by Exodus. As of Friday’s close, I was 100% invested, 75% SPY, 25% TLT.
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Ok … so buy gold.
sell gold
Gold could pull back no doubt. But hard to see it tanking with WW3 coming. Those rapeugees have just started flowing. The world is imploding under the largest mass migration of all time. Clusterfuck of the highest regard. The Euro should start to free fall any day now.
Euro free fall? What makes you think so?
Really? Confidence man confidence.
Will oil be invited?
The jump from the ark down to the clankity pirated speed boat is scary. At least there are machine guns aboard.
Speaking of ships…anyone looking to hop on tankers? Good lord what a weird and wiley sector. TNK carving it out?
I would expect that oil will be invited to the party, although I of course would like to know what Fly thinks. But it went up like firecracker on Friday, and it won’t go up every single day.
Looking at that MSCI index video, it looks like one other possibility is that we are just exiting a correction in an overall bull market, and that we have a year or 2 before we have to get out. Of course, none of us have crystal balls on the market.
I have to go back and see which one of Fly’s video posts had a bullish guy saying “The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And we haven’t had a boom in a while– just slow growth. So there’s no reason for a bust.”
I know that some politicians and people on TV want to scare everyone to death, so that politicians can “fix” non-existent problems and the TV station managers can keep you watching for further developments.
But if you turn off the TV, you will find that you can calm down and enjoy life and not be afraid. The fear mongering is simply manipulation There is already a long & involved process people go through to try to become refugees in the U.S. So we are not in danger of going the way of European countries did– where some took in far more immigrants than they could handle, and did so very quickly too.
Bill Maher is right. Middle East countries should put THEIR boots on the ground to fight ISIS. Saudi should take some Syrian refugees. Middle Easterners should solve M.E. problems.
Are Mr and Mrs Cheney allowed on the ark?
If so, will they be allowed to carry firearms while hunting, or is this a knives only deal?
I’m not getting on the Ark if Cheney is there. But if the Donald and Bernie are there, I’d love to have them, and to observe their frank conversations.
The only people buying \ES tonight are lonely guys who didn’t have a date for Valentine’s Day. Friday’s rally was fueled by another rumor about oil production cuts and Jamie Dimon’s personal stock buyback program, on lukewarm volume at best.
Good thing rumors shot up oil 10% on insane volume… oh and the rumor that gave $DB its bottom on extreme record volume before it popped 12%. Pretty convincing rumors I suppose.
Although Trump does too much fear mongering and sometimes shows too little sense for me to support him, he sure has balls. He stood up in the debate on Sat. and called G W Bush’s record for what it was– something unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate. He and Bernie do have that in common. They call things as they see them. Now if he could stop the fear mongering and have a little more sense, he’d be good– or at least less bad.
And he called out the “lobbyists” that the debate audience was stacked with. I have to admire that particular quality– the ability and willingness to clearly call out manipulation when he sees it happening. Both he and Bernie do that.
At all-time high cause of gold this year. Expect gold to rise again in a few months.
Bear market uptrends generally last from two to four weeks retracing 50% (SPX 1963) to 62% (SPX 2000) of the preceding downtrend. Look to sell between SPX 1956 and 1973 pivot points.
Let’s see if we get a bear market surprise this week.