My cash is less than 5%. I am exposed to grande fuckery, largess into the pagan holiday’s.
Why am I doing this, when up 15% in an otherwise horrid tape?
I’m probably hoping for miracles.
COST remains my largest position by a factor of 2. PAH is number two, a bet on Ack, Ack Ack attack Ackman.
SHAK is my third largest holding and my biggest disappointment, down 13% from my basis.
CNC is number 4 and it fucked my face in today, all thanks and praise to UNH and the entire healthcare system in shambles.
After that is AAPL, JAZZ and PANW.
My risk profile is moderate. My appetite to leverage up and get bold is zero.
I believe, almost emphatically, we’re in a clandestine bear market, which will reveal itself as a true monster in 2016. As always, I am looking forward to being wrong about that and instead making money on the long side. I fear the greatest risk to the system is the oil and gas debt going bad.
According to Exodus, there is $550 billion in oil and gas debt, whose underlying stock’s debt/eq levels are greater than 2. For truly distressed debt/eq levels, above 5, the total debt is $103 billion. So you see how this can get ugly, fairly quickly, Should equity prices continue to languish and debt/eq levels rise, a half a trillion dollars in oil and gas debt can face rape the global economy into the debilitating inferno, often described to us by that sage Dante.
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Granny needs to buy crude right here right now or they need to light up the ME like a fucking Christmas tree. With extra Jesus ornaments and shit.
Hasn’t all that debt being lost already priced in.