All of the earnings coming out are dreck. The liquidity that once drove stocks higher, provided by the Fed, is gone. The economy, once led up by a recovery in housing, is now on the decline. I ask myself “other than the fact that stocks have gone lower and are seemingly on sale, why should I be long?” It’s a question I should’ve asked myself about a month ago. However, sometimes it’s better to be late than never at all.
Stocks suck, especially the one’s with big growth rates. They’re not growing fast enough because the economy is rotten. The only companies that seem to be doing well are basic necessities: beer, toilet paper and cheap clothes. Other than that, it’s casino time, all day, every day.
Bounce or no bounce, I’ve seen enough of this cancer. We’re going much lower from current levels. The growth stocks are only the beginning and serve as the proverbial “canaries in the coal mine.”
Tomorrow, once again, I will be making wholesale changes to my holdings.
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You just nailed it. This is exactly the situation. And your prediction is going to prove correct, the only question is the timing. And boy does a lot ride on getting the timing correct. The market will make that part as difficult as possible.
Do we need a catalyst to get this party started? Will it just start one day, when everyone expects our daily bounce to happen, and it just doesn’t?
I have no idea. I am just going to keep trying to catch the beginning of the down turn, and take a bunch of paper cuts along the way.
In other news, I am very happy not to have been banned. This here iBC is all i’ve got. And, way more importantly, will be critical in riding out the coming calamity successfully.
It’s going to start tomorrow.
Why
What are you doing to try to catch the beginning of the downturn?
I am thinking out of the money put options on 2x & 3x index ETFs (or calls on bear ETFs).
This will likely result in months of 100% losses until I finally catch a 10,000% gain
I am shorting ES futures with a stop above recent all time highs. Specifically, 1900. I am planning to add at several critical support points on the way down, once the decline begins.
I am not trying to get rich or die tryin, but am looking to hedge some other stuff. I am 100% long EWZ still and I don’t know what will happen there, in that glorious bull market, in a US correction.
If i were going to use options I wouldn’t do so until we test and break support down toward 184ish. Look for a close on the lows and then get long some SPY puts or just buy TZA straight up.
i like your assessment
Time to grow VXX tits and take a ride in the FAZ mobile?
Not this time. What if its just a steady valuation correction and decline? Maybe no major VIX panic.
And why shoudl we think it will be the banks that will suffer this time?
I might suggest TZA has more room to run. Or a generic SDS play.
VXX is a garbage tool
This is not a market to be long and you know it.
Or, companies could just lie, I mean misrepersent, I mean “adjust” their numbers to continue to fool investors – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-08/what-pe-ishares-biotech-etf-it-depends-whether-you-read-fine-print
I do beg a million pardons for the source as I know it is generally for the unwashed.
The bear sniffs twice and bites once old chap.
Always appreciate the insights and bon mots, Le Fly. But would you PLEASE
start using the professional vernacular of the kool kids on the teevee and quantify your predicted movement of the market indices in terms of “handles?”
“Janet Yellen saw her shadow today after when she walked out on her porch to tell those kids to ‘turn down that race music,’ which should be good for a ‘downdraft’ of 100 ‘handles’ in the S
Wow, fuck trying to post the jokey jokes on my iPhone.
Apologies.
Housing was bubbled again essentially, starting to falter
(mortgage apps, starts, eventually prices)
Despite the stupid Pent up Demand we’re supposed to see following… “winter”
The housing problem is real simple. They are overpriced. The lack of a middle class does not help either.
saved the middle class by reflating housing…….
pricing out…
the middle class
cant have it both ways
Daaaaaa Bears!
Bob: Hold on, Hold on, Hold on. The name of the Hurricane is Hurricane Ditka.
(Todd begins to pound chest)…..Is everything ok?
Todd: No problem, just having a heart attack. (Pounds Chest)……..Almost over! Done. Done.
Bob: Very good. Very nice recovery, now how many heart attacks is that for you Todd?
Todd: That make’s a baker’s dozen for me.
Barclays starts the layoff machine rolling… look for main street to follow Wall Street.
With the coming Indian elections the pro business candidate is a favorite. Their ETF’s have been rebounding for a few months. I think that may be a conservative place to hunker down with a potential big upside.
$JAZZ, ouch
It’s A Crash Party. I love parties. Well, tomorrow the market gets POMO after a week without it and as Mr. Partridge keeps reminding me, topping takes awhile, so maybe not the sell off that this Bear Nymph would like to see. FWIW, we really can’t bring out the Crash Party Hats until we take out that darn 1755ish level. Those Bulls will try everything to support it, I still can’t believe we rallied above it? Anyway, The Shanghai Copper Bubble looks to be popping, Chinese Biz can’t get their Shadow Money because QE liquidity is not flowing over there and all other liquidity is not flowing over there cuz of that default on the solar bonds. Copper being held as collateral for loans in the custom houses will be defaulted on and thus the world catches a flu when Chinese Sneeze. FWIW, Even if this is the end of the world, I will be happy cuz I finally will be able to complete this Bubble Study from start to finish..