Today was a great day for longs, with exception to those who own CLF. It’s river-boat gambling night in the day time, here on Wall. Well, technically, I am not in New York anymore; but you catch my drift.
As of 3:45 pm, I am up slightly on the day, held back by my VXXing and cash positions. Nevertheless, stocks like EXK, LNN, KMB, RS and CPST are helping to alleviate any anxiety that I might have felt this morning. In addition, I started a new position in EL, a somewhat defensive play with a predictable clientele.
The discipline that you should never abandon, in light of the VHC blow-up, as well as the others that will come in the future, is position sizing. I’m afraid many of you are 100-200% long a single name, trying to hit grandslams with no one on base. I fear that when you lose your shirt, as the case with VHC today, you get desperate, like a degenerate OTB guy, and gamble more–hoping to “make it all back.”
If you limit a position to no more than 20% of your book, you will never feel like jumping off a window sill, onto oncoming traffic below. More importantly, when you find yourself in a rut, cold as ice, take a break or trade small. The singles and doubles will get your back into the swing of things, faster than any homerun. Let’s face it, most homeruns are the result of being lucky, at the right place and the right time.
I do not like to see my members get fleeced in stocks. Regrettably, I dragged many of you through the mud with my YELP; but that ended up a successful trade in the end–having sold the entirety of my position north of $25. Perhaps VHC will rise from the ashes and accomplish what many of you are hoping it will. But it’s just a stock, not a business, and there are no guarantees with regards to court rulings, and so forth.
In summary, if you are going to gamble, do so with the houses money.
46 Responses to Never Abandon Discipline
Have you any opinion on TITN?
Best post ever.
Indeud. Position sizing kept my VHC loss to 1-2% of portfolio. It hurts, but it beats the alternative.
Next up for me is AMRN, which has been halted since this afternoon for its FDA decision.
Get on with it!
WFM and VMW for the hundred roll.
With 10% in VXX, due to the nature and beta of the ETF isn’t your position similar to “7 longs, 6 shorts?” Long VXX might as well be holding 6 crappy shorts.
you are just trying to kill me.
I learned the hard way, that I may be a really good slugger but sometimes the ball doesn’t carry. At those times it is best to just try to get runners on base and in scoring position. I’m long 8, then short ZSTN and FB.
The older I get, the less I like Lincoln in his roll as politician; but admiration for him, as a self-made man, remains.
No one is self-made. The gov’t did it for them.
I can accept that opinion’s position.
Still, it seems a slippery slope. Aren’t we all made by the government then.
You cut your grass, did your laundry; well, you’re a tax payer, then you worked for the government, no?
That can be broad.
I had family out in Illinois at the same time Abe was there, they settled the same city future General and President Grant domiciled. You may have heard of him?
Trivia points: this was the same city that John Deere grew up. You may know $DE?
To call my family “government” when they were squaring shot with Native American arrowheads and other pioneers would be anathema.
I’ve read a few books on Abe, I don’t speak off the cuff.
Market is nothing but a casino. Case in point. I bought FB a minute before the close – only 500 hundred shares- @ 26.88 when it was jumping around. Crossed my fingers and sold in after hours within 1- 2minutes of the earnings release.- 16:06:35.
It’s all BS- Tradebots and all.
Sales price was 28.30. It’s all BS. Tomorrow it could go to 30 or 20 or it could go to 300 during the conference call when Zuckerberg announces he is taking it private. Like Fly says- this place is not for retail investors anymore.
Feel fortunate you didn’t hold it longer.
Social media stocks have shown we’re basically gambling.
Horrible year for me…
CSTR game over dump on earnings. No wonder peeps are stealing food they can not even afford a dollar dvd rental.
Dont forget the prez polls. The 0 continues to fade.
Intrade says different:
Not sure if Nomercy is absolutely correct in response #2 but, if not, pretty damn close to best ever. It’s worth archiving in one’s own ready reference notes and thinking about daily.
Fly, I love this site for the entertainment and the education value.
You have told the story many times of starting with very little money. Some of us young pikers have small accounts too. How would your recommend position sizing with bank rolls not of your stature?
You did not ask me, but here’s my view:
A piker needs to learn trading skills earning maybe $75 on a trade, if it is profitable. Here’s the key- look at percentage gain, not the fact you only made enough for a tank of gas. Eventually, if you become skilled, the account will increase and economics of scale will kick in.
Also, if your account is under 25K, you must be aware of pattern day trader factors in trading. So, slow down and learn to appreciate the trading, not the amount of dollars.
And, you need to trade small enough that you can make mistakes and hopefully learn how to do it right before you blow up. If your initial trading is a losing game, the 5 cent slots will keep you in the casino longer.
DECK squeezing the balls of shorts!
There’s gambling ways of trading, and investing ways of trading. The retail investor is not in the market in part because financial advisors are telling people to stay out, it’s nothing but a gamble. Let me take care of your $.
my dumb fucking friend, luck and big winners come to those who have foresight based on logic and understanding not based on some of stock algo theory. That is for kids looking to control their ADD. GROW UP LOSER
It’s not necessary to call people degenerates….VHC started OTCBB….makes you kinda look like one yourself huh? I know you won’t post this….further reinforcing my previous statement….
VirnetX Early Company History
VirnetX was incorporated in August 2005 in the state of Delaware. It was formed with the specific
intention to develop and commercialize a patent portfolio it had acquired from Science Applications
International Corporation (SAIC). In February 2007, VirnetX Inc. sued Microsoft Corporation for
patent infringement. Later that year, VirnetX Inc. merged with PASW, Inc., a company formerly
known as Pacific Softworks, Inc. that had been delisted from the NASDAQ SmallCap Market and
was trading on the OTC Bulletin Board Market (OTCBB). After the merger, the company began
trading under the name VirnetX Holding Corporation and the ticker symbol changed from PASW
to VNXH. In December 2007, VirnetX Holding Corporation moved from the OTCBB to the
American Stock Exchange (AMEX) with the ticker symbol changing to VHC.
The most hated president in our country’s history is now considered one of the greatest. Time and perspective.
So here is my $VHC experience. Full disclosure, I went off the reservation a bit on this position. Stocks are numbers and letters to me, I don’t care what they are, I am not in love with any of them. My entire retirement portfolio is in Bonds (laughing at all of you) and has been for a long while. I usually trade with mental stops as i dont like being victimized by HFT stop hunting algos. Risky? Yes, but tired of the games.
I traded in and out of $VHC over the past year for a few small wins then re-bot at 30 – 1/2 size – about 4% using #12631 guidance (@RC and @ ChessNwine). Rode it up and did not sell in low 40s, though intuition and big green candle indicated profits should have been taken (greed) Added another 4% when the stock declined to 36, for a full sized position, playing for another bull flag move. Then it collapsed to 27 the other day in the 20% beat down. I refused to sell on the late day fuckery and we saw AH quotes immediately up 10%? To reduce risk to my account I set a sell stop at 31.00 pre market, which was hit the next morning. So I traded out of the first half for a small profit rather than panic out for a total loss. Considering what was happening – a win. got lucky and took advantage of the opportunity. Partial advantage. Then while busy at work today it dives again. I am now stuck in a half size position seriously underwater. Do I stay or attempt to limit damage? Given position sizing, I can afford to not panic I may sell on a pop, at a loss, if I decide to. Reasonable position size has at least limited damage that was made possible by a lack of disciplined thinking. We all suffer errors but I can say that following trading rules avoids disaster. The traders inside #12631 constantly harp on being disciplined, and I credit that influence for avoiding the worst here. Word to Hank G and SA: Fuck you. I’ll get you Bitchez when you least expect it.
100-200% grand slams. Hmm. What about the man who waits in full cash, quietly in the tall grass, until the moment is precisely right. And then, when he bets… he bets it all. What happens to this man?
He goes fuckin’ BROKE like every other fuckin’ trader.
You can’t beat the market by short-term trading.
“Grandslams with no one on base.” Excellent.
Saw this video of Fly’s new rural digs and it looks like Fly, Jr. is singing about it.
classy post, herr flea
How bad did Bobby Boucher get corn holed today? Answer.. Deliverance Quality. Ouch.
15 percent and more. For fuck sakes lad. Get your fuckin shine box!,
You put that fucker Sherman on a post! How dare you sir! He led a bunch of rapists and looters on a rampage through the South. His troops burned down the university in my town and we have not forgotten. Sherman would have taken baby Jesus from his mother’s arms and bashed his head against a lightpole.
Be that as it may, we have an awesome football team.
Sherman is a great American who took the fight out of the south to unite the country, by force.
State’s rights. If the North could have waited 20 years, slavery would have gone away due to the steam engine and cotton gin.
Lincoln was a racist who intended to ship all former slaves to Liberia, Africa after the war.
He wanted a strong central government like we have right now.
How is that working out currently?
I heard a joke a while back. A guy in New York takes his girlfriend on a date. She says ‘Kiss me where it smells’. He took her to New Jersey.
That is some funny shit!
I heard that joke 30 years ago.
Awesome! I’m 36. I’m surprised it took that long to come upm with that joke.
HA. The Fly is a descendant of the great Union general. You should see an earlier post where he moves down South and forces all Southerners to celebrate “Sherman” Day. It’s brilliant.
Slavery had to end. The South would still have it if they could. They kept it with segregation for another century and should be totally ashamed of that fact.
I have put many ‘less than 20%’ positions into many losing names and all together they amount to a big bowl of ripping my esophagus out.
Guess I’ll learn this game eventually.
Yes, my puts were slaughtered today, should I have got out? Probably I should have taken the 10% ROI like you said, but I’m sure the nail is already in the coffin; at least that’s what my charts tell me…
CLF victim here. Luckily it is only one position out of many, but it is still painful to wake up to ‘surprise sex’. I’m a big fan of position sizing.