Why the fuck am I long? The bond market isn’t just speaking soft tales of deflation, but mentally ill charging systemic failure. I look at everything on paper and find zero reasons to own stocks, except for one simple thing: the Federal Reserve.
Is this the moment in history when the Fed decides to give up? All of the trillions invested in seeing this economy stay above water will be for nothing if they do not act now. More than that, the Europeans threaten themselves with irreversible depression, which will lead to violent revolutions in their filthy streets.
Am I exaggerating?
Maybe just a bit. But the idea of doing nothing as rates shrink to nothing is not only suicidal, it is MADNESS (I am not sure if suicidal is better than madness, but it sounded okay).
In other words, I am being treated as “The Gimp”, who is trotted out to buy stocks whenever things look really fucked up. My master, the Fed, has trained me to believe in its magical powers. Hell, back in 2010 I bet against Le Fed and was taught a lesson through fire to the tune of a $5 million loss in VXX tits.
What is going to be your VXX tits? Perhaps you will be caught short some homosexual social media play when the Fed punches you in the cock? Or, maybe the Fed will do nothing and just watch this shit unravel, whilst listening to gangster rap music?
Either way, I am sick of this shit and want out.
In related news, The PPT flagged Overbought for TZA yesterday, the first signal in a while. Generally, an OB signal in TZA is met with unrelenting selling, which means the market goes up. Average loss for a 7 day hold period is -17%.
Happy fucking trading.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWlu8VhcqtM
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who wants to stand against the fed and go short? the whole world is expecting the fed to do something and like trained monkeys we are eating it all up.
Maybe the Fed won’t do anything until the Baguettefucking Euros sort their shit out. Can’t give the impression that the USA will fully bail them out as well, now can we?
social media bubble has burst… qe3 will not change that
When it’s least expected, when the days turn to night and night into day. When the pain is to much to BEAR…a magical genie will appear….and save us from ourselves!! js
7 days is a long time
All day every day waiting on benny the most fucktarded strategy pfft… Get ready to say goodbye to 5 mili more you fucktarded sheep. The fed knows this is it they cant handle it all so they will wait till the crash is ongoing in order to get the most out of their injection, save face before the election yeah there will be some bounce in sept or oct till then you better lube your ass with transmision oil cuz its gona get hot in there.
Sigh,
FUCKING BANNED
Faceless heathens.
You act as if you know what you are talking about. Very humorous.
Your going to be a member of the bocce ball club after this next ramp up!
Bocce ball rules, never try and knock a game dealing with metallic balls. Bad reproductive proposition.
Fly, is right you can’t bet against the Fed. The challenge is timing.
As of last week SP was -6.2% for the month and -4% YOY.
The response will come, its a matter of when and IMHO its going to have to be co-ordinated with all players.
There just doesnt seem ot be the capitulation yet, and the Fed tends to step in at the last minute to make the save.
Thats what im saying it will be in sept or oct to get max gain pluss election effect.
They will not do it right before the election. They must do it very soon, well before the election to show that the move is apolitical.
I would think we wont see any fed intervention we move from a text book 8-10% p/b to a full fledged 20% ugly correction or the election gets closer. Just my opinion.
Do you really want out? Maybe start a landscaping business? The new blog could be iCutGrass.
I’d read it daily.
“And you know what? I ha’ made so much money…I cut that grass for fre'”
Speed Wash (Car Wash), near one of mi casas, allures traffic w/ scantily clothed females (freshly minted HS Grads?).
Pulls in lots of biz.
When gas hits $5-6/gal, the carwash will be the 1st budget cut that the mcmillionaires make.
I’m 1 for 1 so far today. Gold went from +$20 to a much more civilized +$2.
Toying
whtml“Hell, back in 2010 I bet against Le Fed and was taught a lesson through fire to the tune of a $5 million loss in VXX tits.”
I learnt (sic) the same lesson, sir. Though in my blog I said the Bearded Clam announced QE3 that fateful August day in Jackson Hole. Meant to write that he announced QE2, not QE3. Must have been a Freudian slip on my part.
As the old market saw goes “Don’t fight the Fed!”. In 2010 I thought that meant “Don’t fight the Fed, unless it’s a QE program”. The Bernank taught me the error of my ways. Though my loss was not in the millions it still is painful to recall.
I completely agree with you here Sir. Problem is “doing something” could take another 10%+ downside.
But the idea of this being the end game of all end games is just silly. I can see policy makers making egregious mistakes that lead to massive destruction of capital, like the Bank of England at the height of the 08 crisis stating they still feared inflation and wouldn’t cut rates until 2010. But it isn’t like our leaders have suddenly found religion and will burn the current system to the ground just because. Everyone in power has a vested interest in keeping the status quo alive and well. They will eventually get around to gunning the markets higher regardless of how incompetent they look right now and in the near future.
That’s the trillion dollar question.
Mysteries abound.
You’re placing a lot of faith in these “leaders” intelligence and their moral fortitude to, “do the right thing”. Feckless they are. Feckless. Cast about like ships in a storm with no compass to give direction.
I wish they would do something even if it is wrong. At least we would know what we are dealing with and could pick up pieces from there.
I’m really down on the Fed as I don’t think they are getting. Professor Scott Sumner is right. The market is adjusting to the fact that the next round of QE will be a failure too. And the reason is perfectly obvious. The moment the Fed does a QE it then starts talking about keeping the inflation band from going over the 2% range, so it wastes the ammunition when it ought to be telling the market it targeting NGDP at 5% and going all out until it’s there. In other words its really fucking up the signaling.
However Ben is too much of a pussy to do that. Of course there will be QE and a rally, but it won’t last long if the Fed doesn’t do as Sumner suggests.
Here’s his link.
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/
He’s the best monetary economist in the country if not the world. No bullshit. He’s an academic of course, so you won’t be getting any market info there. however he should be on every trader’s blog roll.
Krugman grudgingly referred to him at Milt’s heir and I really dislike the Krug. Even he displays grudging respect for Sumner.
I agree. Inflation target should be 5%
Interesting article. Thanks.
Still don’t know if I fully understand how market monetarism works (yeah, I wiki’d it) and would be put to use here and in the EZ.
Expanding on your point here or in a separate post would be much appreciated.
Is the point to simply do more QE, but just change Bernanke’s script to say, “…And we’re going to keep doing this until the patient wakes the fuck up…”?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_oxnXozkCc
Hi Anton
Yes completely change the script and the operation manual as well.
There is no point doing a QE and then going back and saying they’re targeting the inflation rate at 2%.
I strongly urge you to leaf through Sumner’s blog as there’s some really good stuff in there.
J,
Thanks for the initial post and follow-up. Scott Sumner is a new favorite. Good writer and pretty funny from what I’ve read of his blog.
Far different from the economists I’ve met in real life, lol.
Really like the idea of targeting a specific, acknowledged rate of inflation to get the economy out of a rut. But I wonder how brakes are applied if that inflation target is surpassed. Also wonder how ECB can accomplish this goal with the relative ease of the US.
You may have other priorities at the moment, but I would bet that in times like these, Le Fly would find a prominent place to post well-written macroeconomic analyses with an Australian accent. Much of what we get caught up in here obfuscates the forest with the minute-to-minute examination of trees.
Think about it. Sumner is very good. But you can interpret his concepts back to the iBC audience with the humor, experience & profanity necessary to achieve understanding here.
Don’t even bother asking if the ECB is even close to getting it as those fucking pikers are the worst CB in the world, including African ones.
PPT nailed the $TZA trade this AM . Anyone who heeded the signal could have made 1 point in $TZA or 2 points in $TNA.
oops !
My post below was meant to be attached to this post.
Sorry !
.
Get ready for a rip roaring Romney rally!
I am a bit surprised that the PPT is only just now flashing an OB on TZA !
You pull up any number of garden variety Momentum Oscillators using their default settings …
CCI(20)
Slow Stoch(14,3)
RSI(14,3)
etc … and they have shown OB signals for TZA a few times in the past weeks !
—
Certainly not hatin’ on the PPT ! It has been uncanny over the years. Just a bit surprised by the lag it has displayed of late.
.
What lag? Tza has gone straight up since those other indicators flagged OB.
You just made my point
“straight up” ?
Not really !
—
There were numerous “swings” from OS to OB that could have been conceivably traded using the Momentum Oscillators I mentioned. I guess it’s all about timeframe.
Anyway, as I said I am certainly not hatin’ on the PPT at all. It’s accuracy over time speaks for itself.
.
Nobody throws trillion$$$$ into a project then walks away… Especially when you can print the fucking money yourself.
Well said, as always.
5 million loss in VXX, i bet you learn your lesson sir.
Sorry, Mr. Le Fly,
Deflation is on the menu.
People only care about:
1: Food
2: Gas
3: Cost of shelter
All need to come down and stay down.
Most people don’t give a shit about the Fed helping stocks stay high.
S & P should be around 800, maybe 600.
It’s coming. Math wins.
agreed.
Correction: The central bankers behind the Fed pay for their media to bombard investors with the fear of deflation since banks are not lending, all the while the printing presses are cranked up. This happens every year now. It’s how you destroy a currency and everyone’s wealth without them even realizing it. Massive wealth transfer in the works. Dog and pony show to distract the lemmings.
Navigating this market through Gibralter…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jfc_FgIpyLw
“hoping” for the fed is madness
When have they failed to show? It’s a high probability trade.
Fly- what is your YTD gain/loss as of the close yesterday? Thanks.
What does it matter really, does it do you any good to know if he was up 100% or down 30%?
Fly,
u.s. stocks are down 10% from the highs. the fed and ecb has been giving free money to the private sector. the private sector is risk averse at the moment. what we have here is too much money sloshing around and buying shrinking safe-haven assets and that’s why treasury, bund, and other countries’ debt yields are very low.
you bought the top and are now being hysterical. Man up and do some risk management.
YA’LL SHOULD JUST LISTEN TO ME.
-SLEEK BUTTHOLE WAS HERE
Ben and the Fed do not have as much influence over Europe and its outcome. Some might even say that its out of Ben’s hands. The FED will do QE3-4-5-6-7-8 etc.. but a Europe meltdown will control the global economy. There is no way Europe will get all of the countries to agree on one solution. We are fucked.
We Are Fucked indeed
“All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from the downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
12-12-12
Rejoined you in the $YELP bloodbath at 14.90. Thirsty for bear blood.
FB – target $18
The Fed gets its orders from the Bank of International Settlements. Why not lament about the BIS, instead of the Fed?
Well you know I think we are in Clam Perfect Storm and the Clams around the world won’t act. BTW, did you See the Iran Prez is going to go visit his Pimp Daddy China this week before the next upcoming Iran talks. Iran is so much China’s Bitch imho.
did you ever think that maybe europe really doesnt care to be like us ???
i do think they should tell us to mind our own business…since we cant get it right the first 2 times ,what makes you think the 3rd time is a charm?
or they could just “LE FLY” up the tone a couple of notches and say ” if i wanted your fuckn opinion ,which i doubt i ever would ,since id rather let the markets tank and work themselves out of it by natural correction means “… then i would ask for it ..but since i dont want your opinion ever fuck off
Funny post Fly.
$hits of Bricks: $5 million.
Blink, gulp. Intense Maestro.