All Hands on DECK

 n Women’s Classic inventory is in good shape and slippers get a mixed review: After reviewing the uggaustralia.com and the norsdtrom.com websites yesterday afternoon, we conclude that an ample supply of UGGs is available. We counted all regular price boots and slippers on each site. Given the warm weather, we expect that there may be some 1Q12 cancelations, and fall 2012 orders will likely reflect 2010 rather than 2011, due to strong but not strong enough sales and concerns for the future due to warm weather, modestly increased domestic distribution, and pending price increases that may take some UGG styles from affordable luxury to luxury.

n Nordstrom still in position to sell boots: On the Nordstrom (JWN-$48.87-Buy) site, slippers are 52% in stock, Classic and classic derivatives are 71% in stock, basic fashion boots are 68% in stock, cold weather boots are 63% in stock, and better fashion boots are 75% in stock. Only 8 of the 29 slippers are 100% in stock and 16 are less than 50% in stock. 8 of the 30 classic styles are 100% in stock, and 23 of the 30 are over 50% in stock, with most of the stock-outs in sizes 10 and 11. Of the 37 fashion boots, 9 are 100% in stock and 24 are over 50% in stock, and once again most of the stock-outs are in fringe sizes. The cold weather boots have 10 of 12 styles with over 50% in stock. The remaining styles only have small sizes left. All of the better fashion boots have over 67% in stock, and sizes missing are only small and large sizes; the core sizes are in stock.

n UGG’s website has oodles of boots and slippers: On the Ugg Australia website, slippers are 75% in stock, Classics are 63% in stock, fashion boots are 85% in stock, cold weather boots are 88% in stock, and better fashion boots are 96% in stock. Of the 61 slippers on line, 36 are fully in stock, and 47 styles are over 50% in stock. Of the 59 Classic boots, 33 have no stock-outs, and 42 are greater than 50% in stock. Of the 72 fashion boots 47 are completely in stock, and only 10 are under 50% in stock. 12 of the 29 cold weather boots are totally in stock and none are below 50%. Most missing sizes are fringe sizes. Sizes 7 through 9 in cold weather boots are 89% to 100% in stock.

n No lack of product: While we have no hard data as to the in-stock position at this time last year, we contend, based on our channel checks, that there was much less available than there is today. We have been concerned that if UGG supply meets demand, an inflection point would be at hand. We appear to be there, and again expect retailers to be cautious as they plan 2H12. The UGG business will still be large, but orders will likely be flat to down year over year in the back half of ’12.

To be clear, this man had a $130 price target on DECK up until last week. Then, because of the warm weather, he said “nah, I don’t like DECK anymore” and cut his target by $58 to $72. One of three things are happening here, in my opinion.

Here are the possibilities.

1. Sam has some inside information.

2. Sam is trying to hit a grand slam, currying media attention via outrageous calls.

3. Sam is a fucktard and is wrong about DECK, just like he was wrong on SKX @ $40 and CROX @ $30.

Well, we will find out soon enough, when DECK reports earnings in February. My money is on the gentleman from Credit Suisse.

In other news, European markets are trending lower, after big overnight gains.  The reason for the profit taking is simple. The fucking ECB just lent a record $645 billion to 523 European banks (3 year), well above expectations. In other words, the ECB just saved the European banking system. Of the 523 banks, 12 of them were drunken Irish.

People need to digest this shit before throwing bowling balls at bearshitters again. Bond yields are little changed and all in all, despite lower S&P futures, things aren’t so bad. Following yesterday’s melt-up, today will be a win if the S&P can trade flat to down 0.5%. Should we start to trade up, well then, the bears’ dicks are going to be cut off in extremely short and egregious order.