Wow, I cannot believe my eyes. I am not just talking about the whoosh lower in futures. I am looking at T-bills trading at a negative yield and TLT north of $122. Euro Libor is at the 2009 highs and European markets are crashing. Moreover, the safe havens have been bombed, namely GLD. In this environment, everything trades lower.
If we are using the 2008 model, this is just the beginning. This crisis will be absorbed without TARP or bailouts. The political will is gone and we’re on our own.
Inflation was never real. I know Peter Schiff and others made millions off scaring people into believing that lie. But the truth is, the Fed can’t print money fast enough to offset the destruction of capital. Don’t take my word for it, go take a look at copper, oil and coal.
Regrettably, I missed this move to the downside. Hindsight is 20/20 and there is no point lamenting over losses. They just happen. As tempting as it is to deploy my 30% cash into this market, I will likely do the opposite. Despite being technically oversold, there are many other factors that take precedent.
This is it. This is the collapse that everyone said would happen. At this very moment in time, while our leaders twiddle their thumbs, the global banking system is collapsing. The only thing that has me scratching my brain this morning is Italian 10yr bonds, actually easing a bit here to 5.75%.
Aside from that, the European banks are way over-leveraged and our economy is in the grips of a deflationary vortex.
Good morning to you too!
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The numbers to back up Fly’s claims about the action in TLT: http://bit.ly/pM9wpd
Good way to start your day, would you like some cyanide with that
This is the kind of news that at the very least should bring out some interesting characters namely: Devil Dog, CAP & Horatio Clawhammer.
and ME
But you’re over 47.5.
Good morning DOOM & GLOOM!
Everybody?
What’s worse is that the money “printed” to “support asset prices” is going to money heaven. Bu-bye.
Commodity prices were elevated by the “funny money” and were not real. Neither are equity prices.
I’ll see you at the next buying opportunity for investors…
THAT, Scott, is the saddest part of this whole situation. We wasted trillions for nothing.
All we did is add to the worlds debt. You can’t fix a debt problem with more debt. My Dad taught me that by age 7.
can’t wait to hear your take on this mr.bleier
I’m thinking that printed money went to money HELL…
The reason for that is the money flows were the fed is buying, and in 2008 it was not the case
Look, as Fly said in the last post, as long as you have capital you can still be in the game. Cyanide is not an option.
Using the PPT I stepped out of the market(thankfully)Thursday at the near high. ANR was my proxy(Humpha thanks for this tip)I wish you all well.
Bought some INTC @ 21.58 in pre market-will sell later in day.
Liking GS price action in pre-market.
INTC has been my strongest long through this recent debacle so lesser of all evils out there right now.
I watched a guy buy 50,000 DEC 25 calls @.09 about a month ago, damn genius.
Any balls of steel willing for a trade in BAC? Matched 52 week low just now. Will it become support or resistance?
HAHAHAHA I’m full-tilt FAZd and TZAd out.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
dick
i love the Fly and all here on this site and the PPT, BUT, if it’s all that simple why not pile everything into TZA and FAZ? Is it ever this simple? Total and complete doom and collapse the only possibility?
$100.00 in each is negligible!
HuggieBear is dead.
What a dream day to be offering $1000 haircuts with your $TZAr while driving 200 past a school in the $FAZmobile with a $VXXshirt for good measure.
Well Fly you did say a few days ago that this was the other side of the mountain.
Today the French CAC40 in real terms is back to where it was in 1990 if you allow for 3% annual inflation. It will be interesting to see over the coming month if it can hold that 21 year long support line.
I wish they stop trying to shake out what’s-his-name!
I see crude still over $50. Let me know when it is in the 30s before we talk about 2008 again.
this is nothing…wait till Soc Gen announces that it is fully bankrupt
Currently 10% of what they were in 2007
I can’t believe what happened yesterday. I thought it was bullshit, but the fucking fed actually tightening monetary policy. They fucking tightened it by flattening the yield curve.
They are moving it from a slight positive slope to a flat curve.
Absolutely fucking amazing.
$SPY Puts 2DAY.
VIX has reached its upper triangle range. The bear got fed, still wish I was pig based on print, but don’t like “the slaughter”.
Despite “precedent,” gut (usually right) says this is a 2010 episode, not 2008.
Sticking to general thesis, like “Democrats on Capitalism” (Fly), soar rose (Soros) digital dollars will prop the puppet with a Pyrrhic (stock) victory, based on hope(ium), into 2012.
Still, the masses will parrot Romney as a pariah because “he’s a Mormon,” just as the government discriminates, with sanction, against the Amish.
“All must abide, all must adhere, future oppression becoming more clear, this coming vision is reality.” Fear Factory – Obsolete.
Look, I don’t think this is a US 2008, however that depends on what those Euro Whores do to fuck up their system entirely.
This could be a regular recession, not necessarily a banking one as the banks have plenty of liquidity and the corporates have around $2 trillion in cash floating around.
It will be different.
It doesn’t mean shit for stocks because people think it’s 2008 all over again.
However if I’m proved right stocks will be an okay buy further down the track when this is done as we may come out okay, or at least not as damaged as the 2008 balance sheet recession. This is a lack of demand recession if we’re lucky and the Euros don’t fuck up everyone’s banks.
inflation (more money supply) is there, it’s just exhibited in treasuries rather than anywhere else because the money was more or less handed out without stipulations, and polyteecians clouded the scene preventing the corp’s from using it
The FED didnt tighten. They actually try to provide stimulus but fail in the process. Like I had suspected earlier, this bullshiet Twist Operation wont have much of an effect especially with the rate so low already.
They did tighten, as the fucking yield curve is going to be forced from a slightly positive slope to a flatter one.
That’s monetary economics 101. The fucking morons have tightened monetary policy. Forget interest rates as it’s monetary policy we’re talking about.
Why would they do that? Trying to force money out of savings and into loans. ie- trying to force the banks to lend more?
they did that to attract housing buyers in the long end mortgage market.
However they’ve tightened. They won’t admit because they don’t look at yield curves as much as they do.
Right- by lowering monthly payments and the debt to income ratio that lenders use to approve loans. So it is actually an attempt to ease, depending on how well it works or not. Seems pretty smart to me.
But they aren’t easing because they’re selling in the short end and putting upward pressure on short rates and make money scarcer in those maturity spheres… and relatively more expensive.
quick question – 401k’s at work – I can move to cash. Should I do that today?
the only reason you’d move to cash is if you’re close to 69.5 years old which means you’re too old to be on this site!!!!!
hat tip to you sir.you called it on tuesday. the shit storm indued.
The market is retarded sometimes. They have all these “fixed” relationships even though nothing is fixed over time it is always opinion. Don’t get me wrong I am not going to trade against it, but someday in the next several years the governments are going to be the ones going broke, not companies. They always spend more than they take in and right now long term bond yields are super low. Of course people see rising bond yields and automatically think “sell stocks” without questioning why they are up. It is not because people are moving to safety although it has become a self-fulfilling prophesy, it is because the fed has announced the purchase plan and they know they will have a buyer at higher prices. So the fake “flight to safety” continues NOW.
The fundamental picture was always bad, it didn’t just change overnight because Bernanke said “significant”. Why stocks were high to begin with is odd enough, but why it needs a catalyst.
Just because bonds are at the same level stocks were last time around during 2008 does not mean stocks should be that low. There is more money. But people are liquidating stocks and gold to get some of the fed guaranteed money in TLT.
The next step will be a new world reserve currency. Then, this country will be fucked 6 ways to Sunday. No more free money for Bernanke without sick inflation or possible default, especially if the new bonds are denominated in the new reserve currency rather than our USD.
At least it’s merger Monday on thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-goodrich-unitedtechnologies-idUSTRE78L06X20110922
United Tech to buy Goodrich for $16.5 billion
Liking WFC and KRE etf (small bank etf) price behavior.
“The entire Western world could not muster any growth at all in 2011, yet oil prices will have the highest average price ever this year. ” Stephen Leeb
Is that deflation?
Stagflation
Commodity inflation, Wage/Housing deflation
So many signs. The IPOS! The frickin retarded IPOS coming out of China and here! (but mainly china) I mean come on
This is all part of the retest. We are in the same place we were six weeks ago.
Do we stop here? Do we stop at SPX 1000, 850, 700? Or do we break the lows.
No one knows.
+8.5% today. Cashed in my chips; now to sit back and watch the battle.
Somebody call the asshole dip buyers
Oh, Spirit of Andrew Mellon
O, Spirit of Warren Harding
Help us, for we are lost.
It is the near term bottom my friends. Go out and buy.
Where can I buy some shares of Qwikster?
Nothing like the sound of toilet flush.
The banks aren’t lending because for the last few years the FDIC has been running around shutting them down. The remaining bankers are scared shitless, and amassing cash to maintain healthy financial ratios with their failing loans on the books.
If they are scared shitless they have a strange way of showing it. Most people that are scared shitless make sure a rogue trader doesn’t lose $2+ bln of precious capital.
Buy!! Buy!! Buy!!!
Watching VXX here, holding (relatively) steady, what’s the best o/s here, TCK? SLB?
Not everything trades lower. One asset, pristine in a world of burlap will become king. I don’t buy assets often, but when I do, I make it the US treasury bond.
I AM THE MOST INTERESTING MAN ON EARTH
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/croft-choppy-market-is-full-of-opportunity-2011-09-21