‘Tis the season to be long refiners anyway, ahead of the fucking driving season. Over the weekend, the war mongers (Libyan no fly zone suggesters) out of Europe agreed to expand their own version of QE, by way of allocating $600 billion in imaginary money towards the explicit manipulation of their bond markets.
This may lend, mind you, to dollar strength. An oddball trade is setting up, where stocks might actually trade down. The Japanese situation isn’t making things better. It’s worth noting, oil may drop as Japan’s economy dumps out. But, you might see the crack spread explode higher, due to 1/3rd of Japan’s refineries going offline. Furthermore, with their nuke plants melting down the fucking country, it’s plausible that they might adopt a fossil fuel energy policy.
Bottom line: look for bullish to fanatical pin action in the refiners.
Aside from that, I really need to see how Asian and European markets react to the news before formulating a strategy. One thing to keep in mind, whatever plans you had before this Japanese disaster, with regards to the market, is gone. Everything has changed. This is one of those game changing, black swan events, that needs to be watched very closely.
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Hugh Hendry is bathing in champagne and 100 year old scotch.
I somehow doubt that.
Yeah I am really trying to understand if this is going to lead to a stronger dollar. Dollar was bouncing but then Friday everything seemed to reverse. Definitely to watch closely tomorrow.
sure dollar could strengthen on exactly what all (so far) are saying…”doubt and indescision”…go to cash wait for dust to settle…something I’ll probably wish I did
It is going to be a very interesting 24 hours.
Indeud. One eye on the futures and the other on NHK news feed.
NHK is worse than headline news. At least Headline News you can understand what they are saying.
LOL. If I can understand Morimoto without subtitles and overdub, I can understand NHK.
Here’s some analysis about the JPY Nukes by someone who’s got the credentials to back it up: http://stk.ly/hqrOxM
Nice Link!
Too bad Steve has no credentials!
http://www.stevehasthewronglink
One acronym going into this week…”POMO”.
5.5% down on Nikkei…ouch.
I ordered a bunch of Potassium Iodide, and expressed mailed a bunch to my friends.
I started taking it this morning.
The trade winds take 40 hours to come from Japan to the west coast North America.
I think the Japanese are going to have to start importing food and reconstruction materials.
I think Rite Aid, CVS sells it. I was actually thinking about picking up some myself. So far Copper is dropping along with Asia…but the night is still young. Japan is slowing down energy need, food need and they have a massive clean up before they can even think about building…plus issues of the melt down and aftershocks are still a big concern. I am really getting tired of JPM, etc saying that you must buy, buy, buy over Japan rebuilding.
Steelmakers might lift off from here. A reconstruction of Japan will need plenty of steel. I see uranium miners being destroyed in the next 2-3 months. If Japan can avert this nuclear disaster, long term fundamentals for uranium miners are still good. If not, you can put a 8-10 years of nowhere land to those boys.
Disagree. China is already building a lot of reactors, the world already has a lot of reactors that need to keep full, and Russia is unwinding its weapons downgrading and sales program.
Japan is gonna go to work rebuilding. Bank of Japan will learn something from Bernanke and run their printing presses to finance it.
“”The Bank of Japan on Monday injected Y7,000bn ($86bn) to the banking system, more than double the amount expected, to soothe markets and keep short-term borrowing costs from spiking. Over the weekend it provided Y55bn in funds to financial institutions in northern Japan.””
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e6600348-4dbb-11e0-85e4-00144feab49a.html#axzz1GXnwfoBx
REFINING MARGINS WILL SOAR
Buy ITM calls on OIH?
Negative. Long VLO, TSO, WNR, MRO, SUN, HOC, ALJ or DK
fly, i am no longer receiving your blog posts via RSS. still getting them from chess, rajuncajun, etc.. through. please fix!
Nothing but nothing stops merger Monday though.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/manufacturing/2011-03-14-berkshire-lubrizol_N.htm
… I am in dire need of some PPT scores…… piker or distinguished???? Back on the wagon for bit….
Which was sort of inspiring! Totally unpredicted. Now I do know what I am heading to complete tomorrow 🙂