FTK guided up, making that 6 straight quarters of growth. Dare I say, I am on the cusp of making money on this dog. Cost basis is a touch below $2.09.
Might I add, buying HRBN on Friday had nothing to do with luck. It was divine intervention, on behalf of those celestial beings that love “The Fly” and what he stands for. I don’t expect you to understand. All I ask is that you appreciate the gravity of the situation.
Going with the Chinese Lotto theme, I stepped in a bought a boat-load of HEAT this morning. Can you blame me? Big short position on this one and those clam-lovers are pretty damn nervous now, in light of all the Chinese gambling being done on our exchanges.
I’m still short AEM and MELI, as well as long VXX. However, I have made arrangements to neutralize my VXX worm-hole, via outstanding, kick-ass, grand slam, double digit melt up takeover plays.
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fig motherfucker
Dr. Fly,
Forgive me for asking, but is your firm as a “major holder” of FTK?
No. The shares are in individual accounts. Therefore, filing is not required. However, I do represent them.
Firm? Are you kidding me?
FIS = fly is suck?
The bounce has begun…welcome back.
yeah, the bounce in the $, head tooo long in the oven!
Indeud. Soon it will be white robe, jewel encrusted chalice, and sandal time.
I believe it is time to buy the rare earth plays. I am getting deep into REE and MCP as we speak.
This could be darn interesting…..still looks like a top to me, but I am always wrong…
Nice touch with the EB&D music.
Fly, good call on your new positions. On a off topic note since you have moved on from this holding. But I had a question on TLT. You sold it Friday since you wanted more cash to have to make better returns in this market in the short term. It seems you are still bearish and justing waiting for the shoe to drop. It was not because you were bearish on TLT, right? I have no position in TLT yet, but I am thinking about it. I am conservative in nature, and do not have the guts to go as aggressive as you do sometimes. What do you still think about TLT for those of us that are very conservative. I am not looking for grandslams or to be a hero, but I also do not want to strike out. Your thoughts would be greatly be appreciated. I enjoy your website and all your regular contributors. They are good. A first class website compared to most. Keep it up.
Does the Commercial Paper supply get factored into the PPT?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=DFINCP&s%5B1%5D%5Brange%5D=1yr
The ability to refinance debt at near zero has skewed the market, IMHO.
Excellent blog for what is currently happening to US currency:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/229392-meaningless-monday-rethinking-that-round-earth-idea
My FTK cost basis is $2.02. I’ll be tempted to jump out as soon as it gets above my cost. …….
If you have waited this long, why would you get out when it is about to seriously takeoff. I think we are on the cusp of another run in Nat Gas, and FTK will enjoy a nice run from it. I would wait till it gets to $2.50 at least.
Exactly. I’m the same way with ATPG. Getting pretty close to break even, but there is no way in fucking hell I hold through the BP shit, the moratorium, Euro debt crisis, etc. just to sell for minimal gain. No sir, I’m going to bank serious coin on this fucker before it’s said and done.
To tell the truth, I’m just sick of following FTK. But you’re right. I’ll attempt to hold for a bigger gain, but I’ll be setting stops for sure.
Yellen is speaking at 2:45 of all the voting Fed, she is the biggest Dove…therefore she should be the biggest cheerleader for unlimited QE….wonder if she has any worry at all how they are screwing the Yen?
her speech http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20101011a.htm
Reading thru it, my take away is that she is afraid that Fed will screw up and would like IMF or “MacroPrudential” oversight….ie, they don’t act in Nov but kick the can down the road to allow G20/IMF meet two weeks later and bat around the global issues of F/X….which really makes sense…but that is just me…any other takes on her speech?
It still makes sense to wait until they meet….yet, Jamie at live pointed out that ”
Macroprudential oversight refers to bank regulation, things like tightening lending requirements during boom times, loosening them during busts rather than the reverse, which is what the market does now…”
Someone buy 30k shares of FTK at market to take care of the offer at 1.79 please.
that offer is probably fly trying to dump some of that crap on us. He has been touting that bullcrap stock for years now, and all it has done is go down.
Lies and more lies caused the mortgage debacle – lies about income to get a mortgage – lies about credit quality to sell the mortgage derivative crap. Now, the aHoles are distorting the world economy by trashing the dollar and holding interest rates artificially low instead of reducing government spending and taxes and debt. AHoles cannot manipulate the world economy with success.
My gut instincts are telling me we’re going to see this rally continue into the elections—may even such that the “doubting Thomases” are left in the dust, sorrowfully flagellating themselves in self-loathing.
Obviously, a pullback becomes more imminent the closer we get to early Nov, especially if we get a large melt up in a short period of time. But, there are just too many stocks that are making big moves to doubt that this is the real deal.
I will be looking to buy any pullbacks of 3% – 5% to add to my current lot.
As long as the market’s expectations are for QE2, we should continued to see the market make progress, regardless of what the Bearded One actually does.
into the elections—mebbe even….
“Dow Breaches 2010 High” would make for a nice headline going into the election- don’t ya think.
Only ~200 pts (1.8%) away. C’mon Toshi- your”re sooooo good!
The market lifting new highs is about the only positive thing the Dems might be able to point to. That, or some nebulous education funding bill that all the hypothetical employers want so they can hire more qualified workers. Yeah, sure. Painful bloodletting coming in 3 weeks.
I’ve noted my view on this issue before, but after reading alot of the speeches from the Fed officials it seems that QE2 has been exaggerated by the media and traders/MM alike. Lower Interest rates provide marginal benefits and the real pressure has been hinted towards the fiscal side to pull demand through tax cuts or programs. The Fed has to be careful how they say it, but I think there is enough evidence that they are waiting for elections to take place for fiscal decisions to be debated. This is my case for bullishness but right now it is because of QE2 talk which is tanking the dollar and creating a global devaluing contest. If the Fed puts their foot down about QE2 and wanes from talk of implementation, the dollar should reverse and we’ll get our pullback until fiscal policy adjustments surface. I do think however that dividend paying stocks and MLPs/REITs will be bid up because of their presently proposed tax benefits. Cash will flow that way if proposed tax hikes remain, dividend tax rates slightly rise (from 15 to 20%), and rhetoric concerning trade wars increases. If tax hikes do take place, look for more of the same global growth story to continue as CEOs will deploy cash abroad where foreign emerging governments are more eager to attract investment and where tax rates are lower. Tax cuts in America would repatriate services and somewhat hurt global growth but would also reduce our trade imbalance, possibly increase inflation, and increase employment through reclassification of job skills.
good post Hmmmm
They are talking QE2 and seeing how far it will carry the markets…which may be followed by the markets saying fuck yourself and we get a big dip…which will bring QE2 into reality.
In the meantime my sidelined cash has me anxious, not panic yet. But its a sign that the top is near.
until someone explains what’s going to prevent this mortgage laswuit tsunami, I fail to see why we wont see an absolute collapse in financials.
….because Hank Paulson & Co will rise from the ashes and threaten death to all who do not support the banks!
Do not forget that the bankers are in charge. If they don’t get their way, the current political power structure will be debased even worse than it is now.
It’s a symbiotic relationship with each parasite feeding off the other.
Sick world we find ourselves in, no?
How in the hell would they draft some new legislation with most of congress on holiday or campaigning rest of year?
Zirp, Tarp, and we just priced in QE 2.
Theyre out of ammo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FANQBrCg8vw#t=6m0s
Fucked.
I thank you on behalf of us “Cannon Fodder” and praise your conduit to the Gods.
What happened to all of the haters?
all banned.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoCawR9On38
Fly,
Just read your last post inside the PPT,
I really appreciate your candor,
I’m glad I subscribe to the PPT.
The Japanese say that whenever a Doji appears, always take notice. A well-founded rule of Candlestick followers is that when a Doji appears at the top of a trend, in an overbought area, sell immediately.
A Doji is quite often found at the bottom and top of trends and thus is considered as a sign of possible reversal of price direction, but the Doji can be viewed as a continuation pattern as well.
Love the “quite often”, “considered”, “possible”, and “can be”. That’s about as conclusive (and fucked up) as the Elliott Wave bullshit that gets bantered about.
I would like to see a bit more evidence.
I wonder what Spyder’s purple candlesticks are doing these days.
I keep thinking back to what chessnwine
said several weeks ago when folks were loading
up on inverses as the VIX dipped toward 21,
and (paraphrasing from memory), during 2003-2007 the VIX stayed pretty darn low
and can stay low for a long time.
Conversely, a Doji seen at the bottom of an extended downtrend requires buying signals the next day to confirm the reversal. Otherwise, the weight of the market could take the trend lower.
Candlesticks, schmandelsticks.
VXX has been broken by the weight of the market bulls. No significant reversal in trend until it gets back to 17.
^yup.
@F-18 – Good point. If I remember correctly VIX was down around 10-12 for a really long period of time.
that was only for one day, and it signals a stretched trend that resolves either with time passing or price moving lower. It can last for anywhere from 1 day to 2 weeks out. Over the next six sessions, following the purple, the S&P lost one point. Considering the steepness of the ascent, pretty good in identifying the 6 day period of flat prices.
The purple triggered 9/15 and by 9/23 had run its course.
Thank you Po for pointing out how stupid all those escape words are in stating an opinion.
That’s why I am unequivocal in saying
I am bearish
or
I am bullish.
It’s either one of the other for market bias.
I am bullish should link here
OEW kept me all in while PPT had most here in panic mode … I picked up 15 % while you bought TZA and VXX …
but oew is the objective elliot wave theory so maybe he is talking about jsut the lower end version… lol
EW fucking sucks Teahouse. You trade momentum stocks and enter them exit them well. You understand trading, risk mgt, and trends. If you want to call that EWT than fine, but I’ve never seen an actual EW practitioner pull it off with any reasonable consistency or accuracy. It’s almost incredible how bad it is.
congrats on not riding triple inverses into the river styx though.
EWT fights the core of the one thing we actually know about the markets — and thats that is that we don’t know the future
I keep Prechter’s tome on my bedside stand for those occassional bouts of insomnia.
Funny how he has not “owned” the market with his methods of prognostication. But, that’s irrelevant, no?
EW in principle makes sense, because the market is cyclical, but how Mr. Prechter comes up with the varioous wave counts and the layers upon layers of fractality, is open to some interpretation.——very generous and wide interpretation I should add.
…..interpretive license mixed with voodoo. That just about describes it.
that’s mainly my issue.
it could be this or the complete opposite of what I just said. umm, ok.
it fais bec it doesn’t teach you a consistent manner of interpretation, since the interpretations always change.
but that’s the beauty of OEW … trends (waves) are either confirmed or rejected and reversals are confirmed when major support pivots are violated giving you plenty of notice to hedge or re-balance. Don’t confuse EW with OEW as one is bullish and the other bearish right now.
> As the bull market enters its 20th month, and even after an 83% gain and the largest correction only 17%, there are still many bears in the EW camp. This is as it should be. If everyone was bullish and fully invested we would be looking for an upcoming top, rather than a continuation of this bull market into 2012. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. And, there is certainly lots to be concerned about. The markets, however, are suggesting that for the time being things will improve and market valuations will rise. When one invests in the markets, fundamentals take a backseat to wave patterns and price. They are just another indicator. Gradually, in a bull market, the negativity wanes as prices rise. Then when everyone starts to justify the bull market we are nearing the end of its rise. This is the way markets unfold. Extreme pessimism ends bear markets and extreme optimism ends bull markets.
At OEW we just follow what the market is projecting long term by the waves it creates. Since the waves are quantified by OEW we never question where to label a wave or what constitutes a completed wave pattern. The waves are the waves, past, present and future. They never change. As long as the long term trend is up, and the wave patterns the market creates are bullish, we remain in a bull market. When that changes we enter a bear market. We also use technical and fundamental indicators to monitor the progress of the markets and the economy. These indicators help us to anticipate long term and medium term trends before they are confirmed by OEW. We anticipate, monitor, and adjust when necessary. This is not astro physics, it’s only a market of stocks and other assets. <
Latest post – A bearish outlook on CRM:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/10/11/crm-%E2%80%93-symbol-of-stock-pickers-market/
Doesn’t he know that vxx and tza are on Coffin stuffers greatest hit Vol 7.
Just after..Don’t do me like that, and
I rather have a heart attack than spend another night with you.
Lol
Buy on rumor sell on the news correction coming soon.