Never question my market hand again. Ever.
Into today’s victory, I took profits. My cash position is north of 40%. My year to date gains are back to highs, about +85%.
Two stocks on my “must buy list,” providing they dip, are : U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] .
In a word: WHEREISMYROOTBEER ?
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecXL_W2ZgWA 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
PPT CLOSED ABOVE 3.0, FYI
I see your Creed “Higher” and raise you a http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1odvp-_bhk
More bagpipe.
Can never get enough bagpipe…or cowbell.
Tropical Storm Ida is halting some Gulf production: http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/tropical-storm-ida-taking-toll-gulf-production/
Oh no, better call SLB to fix the rigs.
If you were to compare your YTD performance with most professional traders… you probably wouldn’t post it on a public board.
I think the worst pro I know is up 160% But congrats anyway.
And what are your YTD gains, sally?
Skeptical – This is a retarded thing to say.
if you so dam smart and rich, what the hell are you doing here?
oh and where’s your blog again? and some recent picks?
@Skeptical: The Fly is not a crack-head degenerate OTB gambler. He made his 85% in a low volatility stair-step manner so as not to spook the holders of his fund, I dare say. Do your 160%’ers run money for others, or did they earn their bounty on their bullshit 5 figure Scottrade account?
Good day to you, sir.
The Fly sucks, Atilla is da man
The philosophy tab on xTrends makes me smile. “How then can you keep beating yourself?” Is the answer, with a stick?
I actually made some some money on CMCR today. I caught the $2.00 rip and sold it with the thought of buying again on the dip because the PPT is at 3. Thank you for that one, The Fly! I ended up 50% in cash and sitting pretty in my coin vault waiting to buy, again thank you, The Fly! I will ask my elves to bring you extra cookies and mince meat pie as you dine with the Turkey gods in your magical time machine.
Who is atilla? Sounds like a barbarian idiot.
Sally
These “pros” you speak of: any of them manage more than, let’s say, 10million? I am not a trader you imbecile. I manage money.
This Modern Love – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUDVARUHEGY
Don’t you just love getting screwed!! Why in the hell is GMAC considered to big to fail?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-GMAC-to-receive-more-apf-2087442602.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Because the UAW has a stake with them.
I’m glad Terranova bought some puts on the VIX today. Makes me feel better on my buying of some DEC 25 VIX calls today at the close. Keeping a close eye on it. But I think some volatility will return soon.
Re: DEC 25 VIX calls–
Hereafter known as the “Santa Claus Vix Calls”
Seriously TMOE — if you think the Fed rats are going to let the market implode for Christmas, you need to run — not walk– down to your nearest urban Scientology Center and have the bats residing in your belfry “adjusted.”
________
Terranova will box your face off
As I have said since the first day I posted on this board. Only fools believe the news and propaganda that comes from the government media complex
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/business/economy/09econ.html?_r=1&ref=business
From your article:
“That may help to explain why the recovery from the 2001 recession was a jobless one for many months and why the recovery from this recession is likely to generate few jobs for many months.”
Amazing how they are all falling over themselves down the stairs to try to explain why THIS “stimulus-era” recovery will be “jobless” this time, isn’t it?
The term was a weapon of choice during the last recession recovery (when unemployment was about 6.5% not 10.2% like we have now– lol)….
Hmmmm… curious, no?
__________
Yep, Moe and you know of course Bush ordered the attacks on 911.
Woah, hold on there, Ozzie J.
Moe’s a permabear, he’s not a truther.
___________
I’m not sure anymore, Jake. He seems to think every single coming out of government offices is bullshit and deliberate lies. It’s not much of a stretch to begin believing the government was responsible for 911.
FLY,
looking forward to your dow 10500 post even more than the $$$$ i will be making on the way there ….
a very profitable day for me ..i added some today and might pile on tomorrow
I am really having a boring market
Today’s rally was like watching paint dry
what are you watching if i may ask
Infrastructure, steel, basic materials and energy
FWLT, ATI, TSO, ACI, DRYS to name a few
I sell puts so I’m biased to those names that pay me the premiums
For intance NUE is better than X but X has rewarded me far better
well VIX is down that could be why .. can you exercise a put by covering at any time ? or must you wait till expiration ?? same ??? with calls
The VIX is a poor measure of put premiums as it’s too broad. Comparing historical vs implied premium on a per stock basis works much better.
I usually cover when I capture about 65-80% of the puts value and either roll out if I still like the name or into something else. Same will calls but I won’t short naked calls for multiple reasons.
It’s not for everyone.
arch- Here is an options brochure from the CBOE
http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/pdf/understanding.pdf
That should read historical vs implied volatility
Not premium
Save the Moorish Miners, man!
No, no, Save the Endangered Palo Alto Gold Bears first!
________
S&P 150.
Look a Dallas Gold Bear! Even rarer!
____
you are mentally ill
Hey, you finally got a gravatar. Bravo, Dr. Fly.
(is that Hannibal Lector, btw)
_______
Is that chocolate skidmarks I see on your gravitar?
I did the unthinkable today, insted of respecting my stop loss I doubled up on TZA…
I am going to give it to 11.75 before I pull the plug.
Not expecting a crash just a sellof in the sc to get this thing to rally to 14.5ish
ughhhhh
My god man don’t do it. DO NOT DO IT. Cut your losses before you suffer more damage.
Just look at a chart of the S&P — we are on a trajectory to most likely reach new highs in very short order. As soon as that happens its going to be a giant confirmation that is likely to propel us higher.
Sure, we could bounce of resistance at 1095 and head back down. But that is a low percentage bet given the current environment.
Absolutely – and after all, why not just wait for confirmation either way? There are few to no good reasons to be placing bets right at inflection points just to get in that little bit of extra profit.
at worst a 5 to 1 reverse split and more hammering on you
ignore my post it was an ugly thing to say
such contrition
Joe – word of advice from someone who has made this mistake –
If you are performing any sort of technical analysis or pattern-watching on a levered ETF with a timeline greater than a single day, STOP NOW. Just look at the opposite instrument and see how the charts are not mirrors of each other. That’s because of the daily resetting to maintain daily performance. What looks like an inverse head and shoulders forming on TZA looks like a retest of a double top on TNA. Historical price information on levered ETFs gives you a very distorted view on price action. There may be a way to get it right, but regular tools aren’t geared for it.
USD getting stronger tonight and the PPT over 3 ?
hmmmm…
What’s in the cup?
Rootbeer, ..you want some?
There’s some things I don’t do…
PCLN – no surprise here…
Citigroup/Smith Barney tonight:
Priceline.Com Inc (PCLN) Big Beat & Raise Q3 – Reit Buy, target to $240
Reiterate Buy — 1) Sustainable business model advantages in Europe; 2) Defensive hedge in U.S. (deep-value Name-Your-Own-Price offering); 3) Clear market share gainer; 4) One of best management teams on the Internet; & 5) Reasonable valuation — 19X ’10 EPS for a sustainable 20% EPS growth outlook.
Fly, is that you with a gravatar or an impostor?
I didn’t think you wanted one?
my new grav, which is my REAL pic, disguised by a mask I wear when I do surgery.
Wrong, you are not in the surgeon’s domain.
http://sterileeye.com/2008/10/17/the-surgeons-domain/
ROFL!
Zotz!
The Surgeon’s Domain stole Fly’s pic!
___
That is “Dr. Fly” Mssr. Philistine!
________
Check out my predictions for the end of the year and 2010 over at the KoPG thread.
If you want to lower the # of people who will go & read it, do not provide a link.
Noted.
Dollar looking interesting. Worth keeping an eye on…
some random late night research things:
ENER Citi downgrades ENER to Sell, target $7
Analysts at Citi upgrade Small & MidCap Healthcare Sectors to Market Weight from Underweight
BJ BJ’s Wholesale added to the Conviction SELL list at Goldman Sachs Target $33.
RL Polo Ralph Lauren added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs
Target goes to $94 from $92.
KR Kroger added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs. Target to $27.
World oil reserves much lower than official estimates – Guardian
A source at the International Energy Agency says that at the behest of the US, it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage so as to not trigger panic buying. The senior official’s claims raise questions about the official prediction in the last World Economic Outlook that oil production can be raised from its current 83M to 105M barrels/day. According to the source, the 105M is much higher than facts justify, and some inside the IEA think even 90-95M is impossible. The IEA is due to release World Energy Outlook 2009 tomorrow (10-Nov).
OEW Weekend update:
“With the decline from SPX 1101 to SPX 1029 appearing as an implusive five waves, and the rally to SPX 1071 appearing to be a corrective three waves, with a 61.8% relationship. We should now expect the market to turn over at any time. Once the OEW 1061 pivot is broken to the downside the next wave down should be underway. If, by chance, the market continues to rally and hits the 1090 pivot, an extension to the uptrend is probably underway. Bear market patterns are not as easy to decipher as bull market patterns. Corrective waves can subdivide, just like impulse waves.”
What now OEW ?
Tonights OEW Recap:
“Over the weekend the G-20 met for another non-event. When FX traders noticed nothing of substance was stated about the declining USD, they sold it. This helped the equity markets in Asia, Europe and then in the USA rally. Crude, Gold, Commodities and other Currencies also rallied. During today’s rally the DOW clearly made new highs, while the SPX/NDX/NAZ did not. Since the SPX never came close to breaking through the 1061 pivot, and rallied right up to the 1090 pivot, it certainly looks like the uptrend could be extending. This has been one tough uptrend to track.”
An acquaintance wrote a piece in a local News Corp Newspaper here. He’s really very good and has a phd in monetary economics.
The Future of the US Dollar
Many commentators mistakenly view the market-clearing price of the US dollar on foreign exchange markets as a reflection on the US dollar’s future role in the international financial system. As I argue in my op-ed, the US dollar’s role is entirely a function of the role of US capital markets in the international financial system. It makes the often neglected point that a declining US dollar actually improves the net international investment position of the United States.
I would also highly recommend Richard Cooper’s PIIE Policy Brief on The Future of the Dollar. Cooper is particularly good in explaining why it is China that is financially dependent on the US, not the other way around.
Recent US dollar weakness has given added impetus to the sentiment that one hedge fund trader has succinctly called ‘DGDF’ or ‘dollar going down forever’. Despite a safe-haven bid during the recent global financial crisis, the broad US dollar index has been trending lower since its last major cyclical peak in 2001. This has led many observers to question whether the US dollar will retain its status as a so-called ‘reserve currency’.
The idea of a ‘reserve currency’ is a legacy of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. Under this system, maintaining a fixed exchange rate depended on a country’s ability to buy and sell currency at a given exchange rate parity to the US dollar. In this context, central bank holdings of US dollar reserves assumed considerable importance.
Foreign exchange reserves are much less important under the system of floating exchange rates that has emerged since the demise of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s. The only reason to maintain significant foreign exchange reserves is to avoid having to borrow in international capital markets to fund intervention in foreign exchange markets. Since such intervention is generally both unnecessary and ineffective, there is no need for central banks with floating exchange rates to maintain significant foreign exchange reserves.
Countries like China that remain wedded to managed exchange rate regimes and capital controls must accumulate significant US dollar reserves to maintain their currencies in the desired range against the US dollar. Given its exchange rate regime, China’s purchases of US dollar assets are not a matter of policy choice.
China’s view on the likely direction of US dollar-denominated assets is thus largely irrelevant to its decision to accumulate those assets. While China can diversify its reserves at the margin, it is limited by the fact that only the US has capital markets that are deep and liquid enough to accommodate China’s reserve holdings.
The residual role of the US dollar as a ‘reserve’ currency is thus largely a function of the size and quality of its capital markets and not the willingness of foreign governments to hold US dollars. There would be little international interest in holding a currency that is not backed by deep, liquid and freely-traded capital markets. Countries that aspire to displace the role of the US dollar will first need to develop capital markets comparable to those in the US. This is where the numerous proposals to replace the US dollar as a ‘reserve currency’ come up short.
Global capital flows are the main determinant of international exchange rates and interest rates, but transactions in official reserve assets are small relative to the flows of private capital. The turnover in foreign exchange markets is anywhere from $US2-3 trillion daily. Changes in the holdings of foreign exchange reserves by central banks are just a drop in the bucket of this global market. Those who look to changes in central bank reserve holdings for clues about the direction of exchange rates are seriously mistaken.
The US dollar is also prominent as a currency in which trade in international goods and services is denominated, reflecting the post-war dominance of the US in international trade. This role has diminished somewhat relative to emerging economies, but the US dollar remains the dominant unit of account largely because of the central role of US capital markets in the international financial system.
There have been proposals among oil-producing countries to re-denominate the oil trade in currencies other than the US dollar, which countries like Iran and Venezuela intend as a threat to the US. However, income and wealth are determined by the production of real goods and services, not the units of account in which they are denominated. The obsession with the ‘reserve currency’ status of the US dollar is a legacy of the mercantilist mentality, which measured national prosperity in terms of hoards of gold rather than in terms of the flow of goods and services.
So where does this leave the US dollar exchange rate? Exchange rates are relative prices. Currencies are only strong or weak relative to others. For all the macroeconomic problems besetting the United States, these problems are not necessarily worse than those facing the economies of other major currency units, such as the euro.
Floating exchange rates are also market-clearing prices. A weaker US dollar makes US exports more competitive and US dollar-denominated assets more attractive to international investors. A falling dollar increases the value of US assets abroad, while leaving the value of America’s dollar-denominated debts unchanged. The weaker dollar thus improves America’s net international investment position.
Too many commentators look to the US dollar as a measure of US national strength. But this is to fall victim to the mercantilist ideas that the US needs to resist if it is maintain its central position in the world economy and financial system.
The Nobel laureate Robert Mundell, also known as the ‘father of the euro’, has predicted that the ‘dollar era is going to last a long time, perhaps another hundred years’. Whether Mundell is right will ultimately depend on whether America continues to uphold the rule of law and property rights that gave rise to its central role in global capital markets.
In theory, other countries could emerge to replace the US in the provision of deep and freely-traded capital markets. But do you really want to bet on it?
bulls led to slaughter
p3 feed for hungry bears
dollar is the tell
Fly, if your gain is 85% and capital gain tax is 39% then your pre-tax gain is 54.29%
and?
Talking your book?
DVAX thread http://ibankcoin.com/henry_fool/2009/11/10/dvax-defines/
Hope you’re buying today Fly.