Eastbound and Down Macroeconomic Data

Another round of macroeconomic data missing what the “consensus” numbers had projected is being seen as the catalyst for this morning’s broad market selling. The VIX is up over 4.5% at the time of this writing, and the pessimism about the recent rally to multi-year highs is as thick as the fog in The Presidio at dusk. And yet, we are off just less than 3% on the S&P 500 from those 1474 highs printed two weeks ago. Moreover, of the many longs in my portfolio I have only seen one stock actually hit my stop-loss price over the past few weeks. Indeed, trading based on headlines of government data releases is a surefire way to be behind the tape over the long run.

Above all else, the technical backdrop of the major averages continues to implore me to stick with the thesis that we are experiencing a contained bull market correction of no more than 3-5% from the highs. The pronounced sensitivity by market participants to macroeconomic data, potential headwinds, and basically every tick lower in the market just reinforces my market posture.

Finally, note the continued strength after the recent pullback in the precious metals miners such as RGLD and SLW.