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Back in June I told the story of woman who comes home to discover her husband in bed with another lady. Seeing that his wife is both stunned and furious, the husband blurts out, “No, I’m not cheating!” And then he follows it up with the old Groucho Marx line, “Who are you going to believe? Me, or your lying eyes?”
While drawing a trendline on a chart is inherently subjective, the more in tune and objective you are with the market, the more likely you trendline is to be valuable in your analysis. Do not be mistaken, though, as trendlines do not represent some magical place where you simply go all-in long or short and become filthy rich. Instead, they are key reference points from which you develop a bias, with those trendlines acting as places where you are willing to admit you are wrong and develop a new thesis. Why are they so key and special? Because the market told you so.
My example back in June was the weekly chart of Las Vegas Sands. Mind you, this was in the midst of a largely sideways market at that point, but still over a month before the market, for all intents and purposes, crashed. I pointed out the reason why the trendline I drew as support since Las Vegas Sands’ 2009 bottom was so significant–Because of how many times it had acted as a crucial place where buyers reasserted themselves. Again, this is not me making some grandiose declaration, but rather me listening to the market. Note how many times in late-2009 and 2010 that the stock bounced successfully off of that support line, reinforcing its significance.
During the recent summer crash in late-July/early-August, LVS did indeed lose the major support trendline, but only marginally. In fact, it was a short-lived breakdown that was quickly rejected. Notice how dangerous it is to short an apparent breakdown of a major trendline, especially on the first attempt. Since then, LVS has rallied and is suddenly attempting to break out from a now tightening resistance trendline.
Since topping out back in November of 2010, Las Vegas Sands has had plenty of time to correct, consolidate, shake out weak hands, and narrow its trading range. It survived a market swoon with great success, trapping eager shorts looking to capitalize on “the big breakdown.” That support trendline will not hold forever (and when we do see a bonafide breakdown, you can run out of Vegas and hide for cover in the desert), but for now the question remains the same, even after a summer market crash: Who are you going to believe, that trendline or your lying eyes?
Click Here for Original Post: “What’s My (Trend)Line?”
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I bet that guy wished he had eyes in the back of his head.
On a more intelligent note is this type of pattern more likely to breakout to the upside breaking resistance or the downside through the support?
the trendline held and the range is narrowing–I think casinos look good
Looks like the guy sitting in front of them is getting sick of the bro tales as well.
that girl in the pic, depicts a double top.
It reminds me of a bluff in poker. Or better, the bluff of a bluff (of a bluff). I know that you know that I know….
This is why I fade these trend-line breakouts (at least at first). Sold LVS here today, but still on my “can’t die” list of go-to longs.
Cheers
fade them? What’s that mean?
go against a move
Chess,
Do you ever use logarithmic-scaled charts, or only linear-scaled charts, as above? Do you think linear charts yield more valid trendlines than log?
i prefer linear as the price-changes are kept constant
That looks like one big ass bull flag to me..
LVS to 100 over the next 12-24 months?
could easily happen–it was almost $150 back in 2007
Yeah, but in 2007 at $150 the company’s EPS was around $1.24, right before the 2008 crash. After that EPS dried up for two years, but the EPS has recovered now to $1.28, and the stock price is almost 1/3rd the price from back then.
Not trying to throw fundamental chocolate into the technical peanut butter, but the stock was way overpriced back then, compared to valuation now at the 40 PE ratio. Stock seems fairly priced.
Perhaps part of the higher price levels back in 2007 was an expectation of growing real-estate values in Vegas. LVS was in the middle of constructing fancy high-rise condos at their Palazzo and Venetian properties in 2007, due to finish construction in 2008. After the real-estate crash they probably had a hard time selling those off.
it can get overpriced again just like anything else in the market