i have been posting in this site for almost a year. this is the first time that i have said that something must be owned. some questions should never be asked and some questions should never be answered.
well the crack spread gets hit by higher oil prices as we have seen recently. refiners are not able to pass on high cost of crude to consumers and hence takes a hit.
yes it has and many times markets do not react right away.
Aristotle,
most of the time, what you say is correct. this time around, because of the huge cut backs of refining capacity by the refiners, because of reversion back to the mean, and because of hurricanes, for a period of time margins will increase regardless of the price of crude.
in addition, these stocks have already been beaten to death and most are selling for less than book or replacement costs.
I shorted UAUA right here at 12.26….my thinking is that if crude bounces, these guys will get pummeled and if the market continue to decline, I feel this sector can fall on overall economic worries. Does anyone else feel this is a coherent argument or am I way out in left field on this one?
Greekpunk, I don’t like the airline stocks. Their business model sucks. There is no compelling reason to own them, regardless of what crude does. You’ll probably do fine with your short position, although I wouldn’t even give them the time of day.
what are you doing with VLO?
still holding (painfully).
yeah I’m in TSO. The Fly is in WNR.
They make so much sense here but where does sense get you in this fucktarded market?
I’m still holding my VLO and TSO. I cut my CHK loose and decided to hold those two refiners.
I put some MRVL and NVDA in my IRA yesterday, high five 😛
Has anyone seen my balls? I cant find them anywhere!
If SNDK is taken over how about MU at this level? Seems to be some sniffing around MU this AM.
i own tso, vlo, wnr. the refiners are fine, but tso is special, it must be owned, i repeat, it must be owned. north of 30 within 6-8 weeks.
Chivas, that’s a move north of 75%…how do you reach that target?
Greekpunk,
i have been posting in this site for almost a year. this is the first time that i have said that something must be owned. some questions should never be asked and some questions should never be answered.
will the refiners be able to move up if oil climbs up some? Or do we need oil to continue to slide under 100?
I just don’t get it!
it’s not the price of oil. it’s the crack spread.
Ok and hasn’t that improved in favor of refiners?
well the crack spread gets hit by higher oil prices as we have seen recently. refiners are not able to pass on high cost of crude to consumers and hence takes a hit.
Ok, I will take your word, Chivas. It wasn’t a personal affront, by any means! Just wondering
Matt,
yes it has and many times markets do not react right away.
Aristotle,
most of the time, what you say is correct. this time around, because of the huge cut backs of refining capacity by the refiners, because of reversion back to the mean, and because of hurricanes, for a period of time margins will increase regardless of the price of crude.
in addition, these stocks have already been beaten to death and most are selling for less than book or replacement costs.
Check out my comment above about an hour or so ago. Then read this link. MU could be one of those alternatives and it’s trading this AM like it could be.
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/09/no-assurances-s.html
Greekpunk,
no problem.
chivas, I like your thinking. TSO has no Gulf coast refining exposure, either. All West Coast. I just bought 8,700 shares this morning at 17.43.
add SIRF to the MRVL, NVDA, MU list …
Chivas, I like your style.
Buying some TSO here as well.
OK E8- I’m watching for now.
Rc and Alpha
thanks.
I shorted UAUA right here at 12.26….my thinking is that if crude bounces, these guys will get pummeled and if the market continue to decline, I feel this sector can fall on overall economic worries. Does anyone else feel this is a coherent argument or am I way out in left field on this one?
Greekpunk, I don’t like the airline stocks. Their business model sucks. There is no compelling reason to own them, regardless of what crude does. You’ll probably do fine with your short position, although I wouldn’t even give them the time of day.
Thanks for your input, Alpha!
Chivas, I like the cut of your jib on this one.
I am going extra heavy on TSO because of you.
Let’s make it an iBC “thing.” That way, if it goes up, everyone’s happy, and if it gets wasted, we can at least give you some schit.
Which is always fun. 😉
___
Jake,
LOL.
you will be happy.
wow, TSO looks like a goldmine in every regard