I’m considering putting a good bit of capital behind Google Inc. [[GOOG]] at this level. What are your thoughts?
Note: Longer term position, not a trade.
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Joined Jan 27, 2008
7,405 Blog Posts
I wouldn’t do it.
Until another search company steps up, good play.
Have you tried Chrome?
GOOG has not been able to reverse declining revenues and lower ad clicks. has questionable products that are currently not generating any revenues: Android, Chrome, Space Shuttle. What catalyst would change this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMn3xayS604
I’ve tried using Google Docs. While I agree that it’s the future, it doesn’t seem practical just yet to have access to the net at all times. 3G is here, but not everyone can/will pay for it.
The Chrome browser is Google’s portal to channel more users to their software offerings. More to Google’s photo share site, emailing, docs… etc. I figure they will eventually buy Firefox.
We can only assume that MS will spend lots of dollars to counter Google. There is no search engine in sight that I know of that will take away from Google’s market share.
As per http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/Page/document/v5/data/stock?id=goog&previousSymbol=bir-t, trading at 21.5X forward earnings. I’m not sure, but they’ve been as high as 35X right? For a growth company.
Still, in tech, I prefer Apple and RIM. They will both take market share away from Nokia. Apple has much more markets to expand into. They will make more money from selling their high margin laptops. No one can touch RIM in terms of business users.
I’m no expert. Just my thoughts.
Google is a media company dependent on advertising revenue. Marketing budgets are among the first to get whacked in a recession. I wouldn’t do it at this point in the economic cycle.
added WNR
I agree with Dogwood. They make a bundle of their money through advertising which is the first to be cut on budgets, especially online advertising.
So, I would stay away.
I have been waiting for the stock to return to these levels. BUY BUY BUY!
FWIW, I have a friend that works there that I advised to sell his shares in 700’s and mid 500’s. I suggested to him this morning to buy them back.
I added 100 GOOG yesterday, fwiw
Is Fly on strike until 11,000
I would advise: “up” the lithium dosage until the feeling goes away.
However, I am biased… 😉
_
Hi Boomer 🙂
For the very long term I like GOOG. I believe it’s transforming itself from a media/ad company to the next-generation of telecom/Internet companies. Who knows what it will look like in 5 or 10 years. I want to be there though in that future with it. I call it the new AT&T.
I know GOOG is working on a music download service to compete with iTunes. Could be great.
I’m buying at 420.
Everything is better at 420.
What was I talking about?
I also added 11k BOOM at the lows of today, started buying around 26.28. Just for old times sake.
Leonard
let me guess that you are the one who gave a green thumb up to Hell in a Bucket
It’s just a hunch
Ragin – Nope, wouldn’t do it. I think GOOG will attempt a test of 360 perhaps as soon as October. Sounds insane now but wait until October.
Tim
Use the force….just hedge yourself if you do it.
I agree with Tim, more or less. I will only add that the current insanity may last into April or so. I certainly see the lure of getting in here for a nice trade, but I don’t like it for a long term play yet.
I am majorly short tech in general, and have been increasing my positions for 2-3 weeks. This will be a multi-month play for me. I’ve been short AAPL specifically, for a couple of weeks, but mainly just with longer term puts as of today.
Buy what GOOG buys… GEOY. GEOY is the future for GOOG’s advertising revenue. Think: 1) advertisements pop-ups on Google Earth… 2) stores advertising on their roofs… hey, they’ve been advertising on their walls for centuries.
So yes Ragin, GOOG is a good long term investment, but I don’t think its a good trade, hence don’t rush buying here. Wait for Vix40.
Last quarter is the first time Google missed on earnings (as far as I know). The quarter before they started cutting back how much they pay their adhosts through adsense in order to meet their number. I.e. Ad hits are down so Google started paying out LESS per click to the hosts. That’s how they met their number by cutting their costs, but at the expense of losing more hosts. Of course they made their number for that quarter but look at the stock now. I think you’re seeing capital flight in this stock by major institutions parceling out their shares slowly. It’s the increasing demand for liquidation in order to balance the books. Year end coming. This isn’t a growth play this year. Apparently Ambercrombie and Fitch and Ralph Loren are the growth plays, lol.
The majority is saying to buy, so you know you shouldn’t.
Tech is just starting to break. I am waiting for 350-375 and it will come soon.
i wouldn’t buy GOOG for a long-term hold. frankly, i wouldn’t hold any non-dividend paying stock for any length of time, however, so i am a bit biased there.
my personal thesis with google is this: a big chunk of their ad clicks are from less sophisticated net users, but with every passing year, the user base is tilting toward more net savvy people, because the next generation is surfing the net from the time they learn to read. in my experience sophisticated net surfers click far fewer ads than the rest of the population, which leads me to think that the click-based ad industry is flattening out. 9/10 times you can find a better deal on something by doing a little research than by clicking a GOOG ad.
the flip side is GOOG is obviously aware of this and working to find new revenue streams. i know a few people that are current and former GOOG employees, and they’re pretty damn smart, so i don’t doubt that they’ll keep things moving forward.