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Raising Cash

I sold out of my entire MAA stake for $66.74. That was the position I received for my shares of CLP when they were acquired. I feel the need to raise cash and that was a good position to trim.

I also paired back my shares of CCJ. They dropped guidance for expanding the uranium mining. I don’t think it matters – they basically said they’re working to force pricing higher by refusing to mine at these ridiculous prices – however, I think the stock keeps getting beat down. It’s just the way the uranium market has been trading.

CCJ is now 18%, down from more than 20%. Cash stands back at 40%.

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I Bought More HCLP, Because They Grew 218%

Look this is quite straightforward. This partnership is trading at a paltry 14X income and just tripled in size inside of one year.

And a cursory glance immediately revealed another 15% growth just sitting in the pipeline; unaccounted for as of yet. As in, without trying – whammy – have another 15% growth guy.

“Why yes, I believe I will, thank you.”

Just having this trade like the high growth play it is, for 20X income or more, sends it to $50. Add in the 15% growth I’m seeing (and will detail later) and you’re at $59. And that’s before the company even does anything.

This thing is easily going above $60 for a partnership unit. That’s 66% higher from where it’s at right now.

My cash positions rests above 30%.

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Added Back To AEC – Full Position

AEC’s most recent performance was solid, and the earnings call clinched it for me.

This company is too cheap and literally everyone knows it. Above and beyond the consistent and regular return they’re pulling in, there’s chatter of “realizing the portfolio’s true value”.

With a company this size, in this environment, I can only reach the conclusion that means a corporate buyout is looming.

Their CEO and main shareholder is old. Friedman can’t be around forever. And his company’s management have proven themselves over the past five years to be highly competent. The move to separate their debt covenants from their properties in 2009 alone was probably the smartest move of any real estate company around.

So AEC is going to start getting some real attention from larger companies, who are sitting on piles of cash and looking to keep that shareholder growth coming. CLP getting gobbled up by MAA was the first, but it won’t be the last.

Cash stands between 30-40%.

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Added To CCJ, Otherwise Doing Nothing

I added more CCJ for $20.40. I had slimmed the position at $21.80 when I raised cash across the board at the top.

CCJ is always a buy around or below $20.

Other than that, I’m sitting on my hands, with >40% cash. I’m not convinced we don’t keep selling off, but am open to change. Valuations are crazy, but where else are you putting your money?

Bernanke is gone, but Yellen is hardly a hawk.

We’re at about a 5.5% selloff in the S&P. I’d feel a little more sure footed if we were at 10%. That at least would mark a real correction, and would probably require the flattening of a handful of the most serial offenders of the hope trade. The most egregious of inflated share prices, like the TW’s and TSLA’s of the world…

I’m excited by how well BAS has held up during this selloff. That stock normally passes out at a nearby sneeze. Maybe all the soft hands have finally relinquished their last pitiful handful of shares, so that the firm grip of men can rally the company?

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PGJ Holds The Secret

Alright, the emerging market concerns caught me off guard. I confess, I have not been paying close attention for crises. It doesn’t completely matter as I was intent on raising cash early in 2014 anyway. But, I am grateful to others, especially The Fly for his solid piece yesterday. It shook me awake – I was unaware borrowing costs for the rest of the world were spiking like that.

My problem is that I do not want to sell much. I own what I do because I believe in it. I have a 35% cash position, and can raise that back to 50% easily. But any more than that risks me missing out on the exposure; some of which I’ve held for years. It defies the entire purpose of making these investments.

I do have some downside exposure already – TSLA will be obliterated if emerging markets make it to “Contagion Talk” proportions. I still hold what of those puts didn’t expire in January (2/3rds remain of what I initially bought).

My plan is to transition another 1-2% of my account into PGJ puts with a short maturity date, beginning now. That’s a China specific ETF which took a major shock last week. This thing doesn’t turn into a crisis without talk of China; nowhere else is big enough or critical enough to trigger that kind of fear. And you don’t have talk of China without PGJ getting annihilated.

If this turns into a panic, just looking at the Eurozone blowout in ’11 for guidance, it will probably happen within about 6 months from whence the chatter begins (now-ish). Maybe I’m safer with longer execution dates but that costs extra and I can always add in three months if we’re still bobbing.

In the back of my mind, I actually expect the Fed to rush in and save the day somehow. But this will give me a good bit of cover just in case. And these products still look cheap right now.

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