I think the other contributors on this site are dead on about a new move in the precious metals, so I have my lotto ticket selected. I bought SLW for $24.90.

SLW has managed to keep revenues flat from 2011 to 2013; think about that. Gold and silver were cut down (silver lost more than 50% from the highs). But SLW held revenues flat.

How did they accomplish this? Well, part of it was probably that they weren’t getting the top dollar for their production anyway (either holding out for higher spot or held down by existing futures contracts). But an equally big attribute has been the unwavering stream of acquisitions they’ve been from 2011-2013.

They’ve been offsetting their own loss of revenues by buying out competitors.

That has put them in a curious position of being a very strong play on a rebound in silver and gold. In spite of that, when I look at their cash flows and financial position, they don’t look distressed (if you believe their filing, it’s foreign).

Personally, I don’t completely renounce my common sense here, and I’ll be on the look out for signs of trouble (for instance, creative accounting and instruments of financial destruction buttressing up their book).

But at the moment, taking a new position at these levels feels right enough. They pass the first smell test.

I offset the purchase will sales of HCLP and BAS.

No before you ask, I do not think HCLP or BAS are to be sold here, I just have way too much in them after they doubled this year. It made sense, while taking this new position, to use them to offset the purchase. My other positions were driven below 10%. I need to rebalance soon but want to wait to see if BAS and HCLP can break out further before I do too much.

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I added to BTU for $16.80. This is just a small addition; a couple of percent of my net worth.

This play on coal is to be edged into incrementally. There is no hurry.

I offset the purchase with a minor sale of HCLP, which has become outlandishly sized. It is near unanimously disproportionate to the rest of my holdings – I presently have more in HCLP than CCJ – which is astounding when you consider that CCJ has priced pretty steady to where I’ve held it, and it was once more than 20% of my portfolio.

HCLP makes up 26% of my holdings after today’s sale. I may pare back BAS and HCLP some more, just to get them back in line a little. I’ll think about it over the weekend.

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Resting from the moist heat in a leather chair, I look out from the 9th floor window with nothing but quiet apathy for the weeks of summer. It is my prerogative to enjoy myself in comfort and relaxation; thus I will do little or nothing this summer, opting instead to roam about my countryside, engaging in the luxuries befitting me; sniffing flowers, swimming in cold springs, drinking dew and honey, tending to my garden.

I shall find it quite difficult to care for much else at all.

But you can rest easy knowing that I will be here, with you, in near silence. Making small trades. Pretending summer news stories matter. Why, I might even make a mountain out of some yet to be precisely labelled mole hill? The possibilities are endless.

But as I am not paid to be sensational, my primary occupation will be leisure. My second occupation will be trading. And I suppose I’ll fit my occupation in there somewhere if there’s time.

Throwing you a bone, I made another small round of purchases of ETP, closing in on a full position.

You’re welcome.

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I found the terminal position I want, but it has nothing to do with coal. I bought a half sized position in ETP for $56.64.

Energy Transfer Partners, LP is a storage and distribution partnership that specializes in a diverse number of business lines, including (1) midstream, interstate and intrastate transportation and storage natural gas operations, (2) gathering, compression, treating, conditioning and processing of natural gas, and (3) purchasing and marketing natural gas and NGLs.

They’ve been making a flurry of acquisitions, their cash flows seem proper, and they seem cheap relative to peers. They also are paying me 6% in annual distributions to hang out. I like their market position and think the next 10 years will be big for them (same as BAS, same as HCLP).

This is right where I want to be. I’ll refocus energy on coal later – for the moment, I have half assembled positions in NRP and BTU.

Of course, at this stage in the game, it’s going to be hard to hit the kind of returns I got for BAS and HCLP. The market was just so negative about those positions and now since September of last year, it’s getting so expensive. But this is still a good buy here.

I admit it is getting a little harder to find positions to buy. Price to book of companies certainly looks heated, although that’s not the only measure. There are certainly some positions out there priced to fail, like EPD. And coal companies in general look terrible. It wasn’t just tech that got bid up last year.

But there are still lots of positions that are growing revenues and earnings just fast enough to keep that risk threshold around a 10 year horizon. It’s not the 5 year break even points you could have picked up in ’08, but what do you want?

Some of these positions are going to be stealth winner. I think coal names are artificially expensive, but really quite cheap. You have to consider how much of the “expensiveness” is being driven by low coal prices forcing write downs on entire proven reserves. So is the company selling the whole operation for that price level? That’s the big question isn’t it. If you get a coal price recovery, suddenly these operations are all trading <1X book with robust earnings growth.

95% invested.

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I added a small, 5% position to my book in BTU for $16.10, to commemorate the EPA issuing new power plant emission regulations.

My guess is the equity position is worth about $7 now. And they’re losing money every quarter. But this is investing, not guaranteeing. Market forces will either correct through higher electricity prices for consumers, rebalancing the coal market. Or, a third of the US grid goes offline and gun/ammunition manufacturers become the new Coca Cola.

I’m also looking at a few distribution terminals I think might see big volume increases as struggling coal producers – coupled with natural gas exporters looking to Europe – try and tap foreign markets for trade.

I’m moving slow here, not in any rush to push the limits. This is going to be very volatile; lots of room to play individual names sawing 25% up and down, but the overeager will lose a finger if they don’t give themselves room to back off.

The US is about to be the world’s biggest energy exporter for the next century. You can quote me on that. It’s just a matter of edging in and building position.

Your move.

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I entered into NRP some time ago, which was quickly an unmitigated disaster. The position is down 25% from my purchase price. I sold half the position, along with other partial positions, back in January when I raised cash.

Today, I added back some of that for $14.93.

I want to talk at brief about coal. The time to buy into US coal reserves is now, while euphoria over natural gas is highest and markets are most spooked about a Democrat directed EPA.

I am in no way minimalizing the importance of the shale revolution. Not by a longshot – if you look at my own holdings, BAS and HCLP represent a firm belief in the continued importance of those assets to the US energy equation.

What I am doing is highlighting the continued importance coal will have in US power generation and abroad.

Coal presently makes up just over 1/3 of US domestic generation. This is down from 1/2 earlier this decade, most prominently replaced by the surge in application with natural gas. Yet, markets price in equilibrium of choices, when operating correctly.

We have to presume that markets will find a price that fairly limits benefits between choosing natural gas versus coal versus nuclear versus…for equivalent production of energy. This would suggest that natural gas prices are set to rise (further enhancing the payoff for the producers). I would also expect that, as excess capacity gets utilized, the adaptation of coal plants to gas will subside.

This process may take a little longer to finish, and perhaps gas will even match coal in terms of energy mix before it is done. What I would not count on is coal rapidly or even ever completely being removed from global energy production.

Which brings us to the fears of EPA punitive measures against coal. So far, these are aimed at coal fired power plants. While this would, at least temporarily, hinder US energy production from coal here at home, what is to stop US coal producers from simply shipping overseas? And why is metallurgical coal acting so volatile when it is not a component of US power generation?

The signs, to my eyes, spell clear a story of market overreaction to pop culture and fantasy. Power generation shifts or slides, waxes or wanes. It does not turn on or off. Coal has been systematically shunned regardless of its exact nature (energy versus metallurgical) and the driving catalyst seems to be mostly political.

But politics change and politics in this country are about to.

I will give you a 6 month synopsis of what is about to happen. In November, the DNC is going to get creamed, delivering the Senate to the RNC. You can suspend your political predilections, as this is merely obvious to anyone not sucking their own exhaust. And the GOP has no problem with coal power generation. In fact, the Republicans think the argument against coal power generation is, quote, “stupid”.

This will change the short term plot dynamics that drive most superficial market players. Around middle of 2015 or early 2016, coal will be “the most obvious buy ever”, whereas today it is “fools nonsense.” Of course, when it is “the most obvious buy ever”, it will be at some considerable percentage above where you can take a position today.

This will accelerate especially if it should appear going into the next presidential election that a Republican is about to take the White House (that is still too far out for me to see, but it is certainly not out of the question). In such an event, the current shunning of coal will look especially stupid and myopic.

Regardless of the next presidential cycle though, the simple act of the GOP taking both chambers of Congress should noticeably shift the messaging surrounding out of favor coal plays. Executive overreach through agency bodies, no longer shielded by the Senate, will begin getting visibly and openly reprimanded; or even punished.

This shift, along with coals critical importance to the US economy and abroad, should render this a generous buying opportunity in hindsight.

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