He Lurks in the Background, Smoking Blunts

The Fed is going to announce QE forever, vis a vis setting conditions for tapering at 6% unemployment, down from 6.5%. On this news, the market will go haywire. Clowns will parade down Wall, shooting themselves out from carnival cannons and everyone will spit on Rick Santelli.

The Twitter IPO wreaked havoc on the rest of the social media space today, giving a gift to the annointed. I sold TRLA because I’d rather own YELP. I justify taking losses and raising cash with the fact that ideal stocks are now discounted and ripe for the picking. I will exercise my best judgement to buy into this blood, knowing that Mr. Bernanke is going to give Wall Street the finale of a lifetime, before he tips his hat goodbye.

Let the market come in. Bring your shovels to the match–because we’re gonna bury those fear mongrels once and for all.

Twitter is going lower and fear is in the air; but so is the marijuana blunt smoke from a man waiting in the cut, savoring the moment to bring forth his penis guillotines.

I was going to sell a few things, but have been easily swayed to go to the gym instead.

BEHOLD the magic of The PPT

Naturally, trends are made to be broken, so keep this in consideration before mortgaging the house.

UPDATE: I sold JAZZ (+8%) and TRLA (-12%), in order to make room for other/better stocks that are now cheap.

All of the money has moved to Twitter savings accounts. There isn’t any money left to support the rest of the social media space. Bids are being hit, hard and fast, as the nerds at Twitter get richer.

These big IPOs never go smoothly.

Twitter is public and its share price has soared, at the expense of the rest of the market. It’s a sell the news scenario and it’s all the rage. At $26 billion, Twitter is cheap, based off 2020 earnings.

EVERYTHING THAT I OWN IS DROWNING IN PIG VOMIT.

These stocks can’t drop fast enough, crushing me into a vise lined with steel spikes.

I am down another 1.5% this morning and will continue to suffer, as ALJ, BALT and RBCN get steamrolled.

My advice to you is to run. Run as fast as you can from this cursed place and go live a simple life of sheep herding or raise some llamas. This Wall Street business can be very rewarding. It allows you to spend money, gratuitiously, while laughing at the plights of the working class. However, every so often, this god foresaken job sucks the life out of you, tossing you onto the Devi’s BBQ to be slow roasted during periods of mediocrity and underperformance.

As for BALT: earnings were exactly where I thought they’d be. This company is on the verge of profitability. I am sticking with it.

Oh, by the way, remember that loser from Seeking Alpha who was wrong on AMBA? Well, he did another hit piece on FLTX and was wrong again.

After the bell, Twitter priced its stupid ipo at $26. If done correctly, the opening tick will be north of $35, sucking the life out from the market, just like FB.

Also, my ALJ reported WORSE THAN EXPECTED earnings. This was expected, from me at least. The refiners are a forward looking play, not last quarter. There’s a reason why these stocks are down 35% in recent months, so you shouldn’t expect stellar earnings.

BALT reported BETTER THAN EXPECTED earnings and will paint a portrait of grandeur tomorrow morning. Things are getting better and the company is leveraging up to sail the seven seas, taking bounty along the way.

I was down 4% for the day.

Leverage can be a bitch sometimes.

NOTE: BALT’s beat was its first upside surprise in 5 quarters, a big deal. Going forward, I expect them to get into the black and report profits, during 2014.

There isn’t anything left to say or do here. It’s obvious to me that I’ve been singled out, cursed by some celestial being to suffer from mediocrity. This same mediocrity has plagued me for the past 2 years, always occurring in the 4th quarter. It creeps up, ever so slowly, then BAM!: decapitation.

Just to recap what I’ve witnessed today, in a nutshell.

The Dow Jones went up 50 points in the morning, all the while my holdings roared out of the gates, like hungry lions trapped inside of a sweat shop. “The Fly” took this opportunity to head over to the gym, for a little bulking up. By the time he got back, his position were covered in blood, but the Dow Jones was now up 100 points!

REVERSAL! in NSTG

REVERSAL! in BALT

REVERSAL! in JAZZ

REVERSAL! in TRLA

PLUNGE! in RBCN

More downside action in ALJ.

Like I said, there isn’t anything left to discuss. I’ve made my bed of fleas and now lie down in it, drifting away like a log in a stream.

BALT owns and operates 4 Supramax vessels, making more than $12,500 per day to do so.

If you look at the internals of the BDI, you will see consistency in both Handysize and Supramax rates, both to the upside. While capes have gone lower, over the past 30 days, both supras and handys have risen by more than 20%.

As far as I see it, the only risk to this trade is dilution. These greedy pirate bastards wants to raise capital in order to buy MOAR boats–because they know the trend. They understand the fact that overall vessel population is growing at a historically low 4% per annum and it’s only a matter of time before rates soar.

Having said that, I am merely talking my own book, so take it with a grain of salt.

Z posted great earnings. TRLA will trade higher, as a result.

I want you to come out from under the stairs and have a look at these stocks, derived from a very special screen inside of The PPT. Not only does it look for technically strong stocks that are heavily shorted. But it also scans the entirety of the market for such names that’ve moved past, or attempting to move past, the all important 20 day moving average.

One time inside of the urinal room I overheard some chart people discuss their affinity for the 20 day moving average. Therefore, being the generous host that I am, I digitized your repugnant charts into list form.

Here are my favorites, from a layman’s point of view.

KWK

RBCN

MYGN

OCLR

Z

SAM

YELP

WAIR

NAT

UVV

Members may access this screen here.

My patience is being tested on an extreme level. My purchase of RBCN this morning resulted in instant winship, as the stock spiraled up to $11.90, up $1.84 from my basis. Considering the amount of shares purchased, it was a handsome (extra Fly) win. However, as the day waned on, perverts sold the stock, and with it my gains dissipated in the inferno.

Being up a mere 15 cents on the stock, as I write this post, makes me want to commit arson.

I’ve been busy all day, partaking in extreme coffee consumption, chewing on espresso beans as if they were bubble gum.

At the moment, my gains are being enjoyed by the moves in JAZZ and BALT. Earlier gains in NSTG and RBCN have all but vanished, again pushing me towards committing arson.

My largest position, ALJ, is lower, further entrenching myself in the mud, amidst the grass and the sheep. I’m still up 0.8% for the day, down from +3.5%. However, given the current trajectory, it will be getting very hot around these parts soon.

First off, BALT acquired two new Capesize vessels today, upping their fleet to 13 (4 capes, 4 supramax, 5 handy size). I love the deal and feel BALT in keenly positioned to profit from a rising BDI, more than any other publicly traded company, due to their solid balance sheet and age of fleet, which stands at an industry low of just 3.6 years.

As you know from an earlier post, I acquired shares of RBCN today, based off the GTAT-AAPL arrangement.

Sapphire is a commodity and will trade higher, as supply gets taken off the market. The fact that Apple is paying GTAT $500+ million dollars for sapphire supplies means this is a big deal. I believe it will be used for screens, which will force competitors, like Samsung, to follow suit. Due to the exclusivity of the GTAT deal, the only other supplier of note left is RBCN. I view this in the same vein of how the industry  shifted to flash memory, away from DRAM. Early buyers of SNDK were richly rewarded.

The plain truth: sapphire is a superior material to gorilla glass. As an aside, companies like ZAGG will go away, once sapphire is adopted, since it’s scratch proof.

I bought my RBCN position at the opening tick and have an average cost of $10.06. I didn’t mind paying up because I feel the stock is heading to $20, if not higher. With 35% of the shares sold short, bears are in for a house of agonizing pain for the foreseeable future.

It’s also worth noting that the decline in WTI is outpacing Brent, also bullish for refiners like ALJ, DK and WNR.

I am +2.5% for the day so far.